Ohtani Rental?

[Fan4Life]

3 minutes ago, interloper said:

They have Detroit and then Toronto before the deadline. That Toronto series is enormous for #OhtaniWatch 

I may have to watch those games.... 

[HakunaSakata]

2 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Neither the Red Sox nor Yankees have the prospect capital or many desirable cost-controlled young assets. I would be VERY surprised if they are factors at all in Ohtani's destination. Furthermore, the are not likely factors as it relates to our destiny in 2023. They are tied for last place. They are simply not that relevant right now.

I think it is very possible that an Ohtani package won't/doesn't have to include the level of prospects that you mentioned. Of the serious buyers/teams interested in his services (you the teams with the kind of org talent to possess said assets) if the Dodgers are out (as it has been reported that the Angels don't want to send him to them) who do you envision paying that price? The O's? D-backs? Reds? Rays?

None of those orgs are going to surrender their top shelf guys for Ohtani. No matter which org the Angels chose from, it is very probably that given the 2-month nature of the acquisition, they are going to have to chose from the middle shelf.

I think Volpe (Yankees) and Casas (Red Sox) would be perfectly fine headliners for an Ohtani deal and both teams have shown very little concern for their farm systems in the past because they can just buy FA replacements. Should they trade them? No. Would they trade them? Maybe...

[Bemorewins]

18 minutes ago, Fan4Life said:

Unless the Angels have a complete collapse over the next week, I agree. They are 4 games out with 3 teams to catch. Not sure how you could support trading him off if you are that close with 50-ish games to go. 

I can speculate as to how. Because if they want to retain/resign Ohtani in the offseason, they are going to have to have a better roster with some better players than they do right now. If he truly wants to stay in LA (don't know if he does or doesn't) and in FA there's the Dodgers who are perennial winners with a great roster that has two other prime superstars and a slew of young budding talent (more than any other org including ours). And then there are the Angels, the team he spent the last 6 years with going nowhere. And they say come on back so you can join an aging-injury prone Mike Trout and nothing else. Which do you think he will chose?

[Fan4Life]

1 minute ago, Bemorewins said:

I can speculate as to how. Because if they want to retain/resign Ohtani in the offseason, they are going to have to have a better roster with some better players than they do right now. If he truly wants to stay in LA (don't know if he does or doesn't) and in FA there's the Dodgers who are perennial winners with a great roster that has two other prime superstars and a slew of young budding talent (more than any other org including ours). And then there are the Angels, the team he spent the last 6 years with going nowhere. And they say come on back so you can join an aging-injury prone Mike Trout and nothing else. Which do you think he will chose?

Well if this is the premise, I don't think whatever the Angels acquire is going to make that big of a difference to go from being also-rans to being contenders.  Especially for next season. "Maybe" at some point down the road if other good choices are made to fill in around him but he's heard that story already. And then you also risk his experience with another team for a couple-ish months and say the Rangers reach the WS with him, heaven forbid... 

[Bemorewins]

2 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

I think Volpe (Yankees) and Casas (Red Sox) would be perfectly fine headliners for an Ohtani deal and both teams have shown very little concern for their farm systems in the past because they can just buy FA replacements. Should they trade them? No. Would they trade them? Maybe...

I don't think either player has the singular value that you are proclaiming. They would have to add more, in the Red Sox case probably much more. And the problem is neither team has that to give. Also, the Red Sox can not win a bid on the opening market for Ohtani. Why do you think they didn't resign their own homegrown star Mookie Betts or Bogaets?

Even if the Yanks were to acquire him via trade somehow. He would most likely be a 2-month rental for them because there is no way they can outbid the Mets on the open market. I know that you say "they have shown very little concern for their farm system" but would a team with so few org assets give up one of their best for a very likely 2-month rental when they are tied for last place?

[Fan4Life]

Are the Bluejays in play at all for Ohtani?

[Bemorewins]

5 minutes ago, Fan4Life said:

Well if this is the premise, I don't think whatever the Angels acquire is going to make that big of a difference to go from being also-rans to being contenders.  Especially for next season. "Maybe" at some point down the road if other good choices are made to fill in around him but he's heard that story already. And then you also risk his experience with another team for a couple-ish months and say the Rangers reach the WS with him, heaven forbid... 

I heard on MLB network radio this morning, that the Angels do not want to trade him to the Dodgers or any division rival.

What you are saying could very well be the case. That is why IMO they are considering trading him, they know it's a realistic possibility that he doesn't come back. So it's either a pick (to be developed in their system - which isn't very good) OR trade him for some prospects that have already been developed by good systems/organizations?

I'm sure that's the value proposition that they are facing.

[Bemorewins]

1 minute ago, Fan4Life said:

Are the Bluejays in play at all for Ohtani?

Doubtful. They don't have many good prospects. ONE singular top 100 prospect.

[RVAOsFan]

I can hear it now, O's fans in Camden Yards yelling out the "O" in Ohtani as his name is announced over the PA system coming up to the plate.... whoops wake up man get back to work.

[Fan4Life]

10 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I heard on MLB network radio this morning, that the Angels do not want to trade him to the Dodgers or any division rival.

What you are saying could very well be the case. That is why IMO they are considering trading him, they know it's a realistic possibility that he doesn't come back. So it's either a pick (to be developed in their system - which isn't very good) OR trade him for some prospects that have already been developed by good systems/organizations?

I'm sure that's the value proposition that they are facing.

And they are in the thick of it currently... 

[Just Regular]

1 hour ago, Greg Pappas said:

The point I'm making is that there is a line you would not cross in regards to player/prospect cost and defining that line helps set your POV. 

Instead of saying you would or wouldn't do it, show us where your line is at.  What is the max value you're willing to sacrifice? 

I'd guessed earlier in the year if Ohtani moves it will be for less than Jordan Westburg, Cole Irvin and Anthony Santander.

Forget Irvin and Santander here - in the guess they were more placeholders if LAA wasn't quitting on the '24 Trout roster, and this week I doubt either GM would prefer them.    Neither one has much trade value.

Westburg for me is kind of on a tier of his own in the portfolio of assets Elias controls.    

He isn't the upside play Mayo or Basallo is, but I think he's better than Norby or Ortiz.    I am sure Elias will try, but I don't think those lower guys can be the centerpiece for a truly major acquisition.

Westburg-Ohtani is the gray area individual one for me....Norby or Ortiz or Povich down is an easy yes, Mayo and up is an easy no, and due to polish I'm counting for this minute Cowser/Kjerstad ahead of Mayo.

If you invest Westburg (and this could be for any player of proven excellence), you can still play Norby or Ortiz with Gunnar/Holliday for the foreseeable future.

On the 2 months and 5-6 years thing, how confident are you today Elias if he holds him will tender Westburg Arb3 for his Age 30 season in 2029?     It can get late early in the middle infield.

[accinfo]

Bob Nightengale was on Haney's show today and said he spoke with the owner of the Angels just 2 days ago and he isn't going to trade Ohtani.  That they make $20 million on him in things like attendance, advertising, etc and they are still in a pennant race.  

[HakunaSakata]

22 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I don't think either player has the singular value that you are proclaiming. They would have to add more, in the Red Sox case probably much more. And the problem is neither team has that to give. Also, the Red Sox can not win a bid on the opening market for Ohtani. Why do you think they didn't resign their own homegrown star Mookie Betts or Bogaets?

Even if the Yanks were to acquire him via trade somehow. He would most likely be a 2-month rental for them because there is no way they can outbid the Mets on the open market. I know that you say "they have shown very little concern for their farm system" but would a team with so few org assets give up one of their best for a very likely 2-month rental when they are tied for last place?

You don't think Volpe or Casas is good enough to headline a trade for Ohtani?  For context, Volpe was top 5 prospect going into this season and even with his struggles I think most teams would value him more than any of our prospects other than Holiday. And Casas isn't thar far removed from being a top guy and he's really come into his own in the 2nd half this season. It's hard to imagine the Angels declining a trade offer if either one of them was the main piece (with other lesser pieces included). 

[EddeeEddee]

I'm guessing the teams probably most willing to overpay for Ohtani are the Rangers and the Dodgers.  But they are probably the two teams the Angels least want to trade him to -- one the all too familiar divisional rival and the other the storied in-town rival the Angels will always play second fiddle to.  

But the Rangers really make sense because at least they aren't the Dodgers -- or the Astros.  And the Rangers have the prospects to overpay and have more of an all-in mentality this season than any of the other teams (again, except maybe the Dodgers).  The risk is that Ohtani decides he likes playing for the Rangers and signs a long term contract with them -- especially if they go on to the WS with Ohtani -- battling the Angels for the AL West for years to come.  

I think the O's, Rays, Braves and even the Red Sox are probably too conservative to pull off a trade for him.  The Reds may be tempted but perhaps think he won't provide enough of a difference on his own.  The Blue Jays and Yankees most certainly want him but probably don't have the prospects to pull it off.  The dark horse teams I think are the Phillies and, of course, the crazy ass Padres.  

Now watch the Mariners, Brewers or Guardians pull it off.

[tntoriole]

3 hours ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

A couple points...

The Dodgers are probably confident they can wait to the offseason and sign Ohtani, so I don't imagine them giving up an overwhelming prospect package for him now.  It just wouldn't make sense on their behalf if they know they're the front runner to sign him anyway in 3 months.

 

In the 1990s, trading for one player was the catalyst for 2 franchises to win the Wold Series. When the Blue Jays did it in 1992, they won back to back championships.

When the Yankees had a young team and traded for this player in 1995, they set a Dynasty into motion. With this player, they made the post season, won it all the following season, and appeared in 6 out of 9 World Series from the moment they made the trade.

Who is that player? It was Ace pitcher, David Cone. 

In 2017, the young Astros trade for Justin Verlander and it catapults them to a World Series Championship.

Why am I rambling on about David Cone and Justin Verlander type of trades? Because this season, Shohei Ohtani is that same type of catalyst trade to win a world series and set a Dynasty into motion.

Apples and oranges .. Verlander and Cone stayed and were under contract to Astros and Yankees.  This situation is not that.