How much longer can we endure Mountcastle's and Mateo's OBP?

[Bemorewins]

10 minutes ago, turtlebowl said:

Never said there were guarantees.  I will say that long term Westburg will get on base more than Mounty and I think that happens immediately even with the adjustment period.  So what is more valuable, A .280 OBP with power, or a likely more well rounded bat with better on base skills with slightly less power?  Not to mention you are opening up opportunity for one of your best prospects in your organization. 

I like Mountcastle but I believe Westburg has the better bat long term so I hate the thought of trading him which seems like a likely outcome when he could be a better player than what you are putting out at first everyday right now.  

These are tough decisions that the front office is going to have to make in the next several months.

I think you are absolutely correct in that he will most likely have a higher OBP long term. However, this year we have a great shot at going far, so the long term has to be balanced with what’s best for this season. We are no longer rebuilding. We already have Gunnar who is hopefully just beginning to adjust and turn things around. And we have Mateo who is not hitting at all at the moment. I don’t think we can afford to carry 3 guys in the lineup who are not productive at the same time, especially given the make up of our pitching staff, which is frankly not good enough.

Now as far as trading Westburg is concerned, he may be the most valuable trade piece that we have along with Cowser (not named Holliday or Gunnar). We are never moving Holliday so that’s not even in consideration and I doubt that we consider moving Gunnar either.

How else do you think/suggest we acquire the necessary starting pitching to give ourselves a serious shot this year and for the next few years?

I don’t think Ortiz has enough value to be the center piece of a trade for a major starting pitching upgrade. Do you think we should trade Cowser instead of Westburg?

[TommyPickles]

Second best OBP on the team (.375) belongs to Ramon. It'll be great to have him back.

[turtlebowl]

17 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I think you are absolutely correct in that he will most likely have a higher OBP long term. However, this year we have a great shot at going far, so the long term has to be balanced with what’s best for this season. We are no longer rebuilding. We already have Gunnar who is hopefully just beginning to adjust and turn things around. And we have Mateo who is not hitting at all at the moment. I don’t think we can afford to carry 3 guys in the lineup who are not productive at the same time, especially given the make up of our pitching staff, which is frankly not good enough.

Now as far as trading Westburg is concerned, he may be the most valuable trade piece that we have along with Cowser (not named Holliday or Gunnar). We are never moving Holliday so that’s not even in consideration and I doubt that we consider moving Gunnar either.

How else do you think/suggest we acquire the necessary starting pitching to give ourselves a serious shot this year and for the next few years?

I don’t think Ortiz has enough value to be the center piece of a trade for a major starting pitching upgrade. Do you think we should trade Cowser instead of Westburg?

If I only have those 2 to chose from I am trading Westburg because of our infield depth that is starting to back up in the minors.  

I also agree with you that being a winning team changes the way you would look at these things.  In theory you could probably put Mountcastle in a package with a couple prospects that are in the 5 through 10 range in our system and still get a higher end pitcher in return.  Is that a risk to the major league team who's goals should be to win this year due to the start?  

I could argue that you could trade Mounty, bring up Westburg plus you have Urius who is your insurance policy if there are struggles at first.  I don't see them doing this but if you were still trying to win now but also trying to think long term, this would have to be a consideration at least.  

[Aristotelian]

2 minutes ago, turtlebowl said:

If I only have those 2 to chose from I am trading Westburg because of our infield depth that is starting to back up in the minors.  

I wonder if keeping Westburg in the minors as long as Elias has is about preserving his trade value. The trade deadline is going to be extremely interesting. 

[Bemorewins]

13 minutes ago, turtlebowl said:

If I only have those 2 to chose from I am trading Westburg because of our infield depth that is starting to back up in the minors.  

I also agree with you that being a winning team changes the way you would look at these things.  In theory you could probably put Mountcastle in a package with a couple prospects that are in the 5 through 10 range in our system and still get a higher end pitcher in return.  Is that a risk to the major league team who's goals should be to win this year due to the start?  

I could argue that you could trade Mounty, bring up Westburg plus you have Urius who is your insurance policy if there are struggles at first.  I don't see them doing this but if you were still trying to win now but also trying to think long term, this would have to be a consideration at least.  

I’m not sure how much value Mountcastle would carry to a team looking to offload starting pitching, thus meaning they are in some sort of rebuild phase. It seems to me that reason would suggest that those type of teams would want players with 5/6 years of team control. No?

I guess if we were to trade from the players already in our Major League infield, it seems that Urias probably has the most value. But my guess is the prospects would have to be the headliners of any trade.

[Orioles0615]

20 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I wonder if keeping Westburg in the minors as long as Elias has is about preserving his trade value. The trade deadline is going to be extremely interesting. 

I think the trade deadline is going to be dissppinting and underwhelming. My guess is they get another "veteran innings eater" aka more of what we have, and then we get a standard puzzling Elias Fraizer/Aguliar/Phillips move. We don't help the log jam and we hear about how a "deal couldn't be worked" aka we want to hoard prospects. 

 

I have serious doubts that they make some kind of push us over the edge flashy move. 

[Aristotelian]

1 minute ago, Orioles0615 said:

I think the trade deadline is going to be dissppinting and underwhelming. My guess is they get another "veteran innings eater" aka more of what we have, and then we get a standard puzzling Elias Fraizer/Aguliar/Phillips move. We don't help the log jam and we hear about how a "deal couldn't be worked" aka we want to hoard prospects. 

 

I have serious doubts that they make some kind of push us over the edge flashy move. 

Agreed, interesting doesn't necessarily mean splashy. It could be trading Urias or one of the more marginal guys who is forced out and then promoting Westburg. I haven't seen a compelling target for a TOR starter to get through trade. I am prepared for any outcome. 

[Tony-OH]

We may have to define this question a little closer. 

Maybe it should read, "How much longer can we endure Mountcastle's and Mateo's OBP against right-handed pitching?"

Mountcastle vs RHP - .196/.231/.341/.572 in 147 PAs
Mateo vs RHP -           .217/.261/.398/.659 in  94 PAs

That's a lot of bad production offensively over 241 PAs this season.

Both hit significantly better against left-handers

Mountcastle vs RHP - .328/.348/.734/1.082 in 69 PAs
Mateo vs RHP -           .275/.339/.451/.790 in  57 PAs

It is worth considering platooning them a bit, especially Mountcastle if he can not pick it up against right-handers. 

O'Hearn is the obvious choice against right-handers at first base now now (.310/.364/.552/.915 in 33 PAs) though if Cowser can get healthy and back to hitting the way he was prior to the Quad injury, bringing him up to play LF, move Hays to RF, and Santander to 1B could also be a way to go.

As for Mateo, it's been covered in this thread, but clearly his May struggles should see him losing playing time if he can't bounce back. 

Now the question is, with Urias on rehab and on his way back, he'll need playing time and with Frazier and Henderson of late doing well, Mateo is the prime suspect to lose playing time with Henderson moving over to SS. 

With Mateo's speed and versatility, he's not the worse bench guy so you would expect Ortiz back to AAA to play SS everyday when Urias returns. 

Maybe you end up with a Mateo/Frazier type of platoon against right-lefties though obviously you move the other players around defensively. 

 

[Bemorewins]

20 minutes ago, Orioles0615 said:

I think the trade deadline is going to be dissppinting and underwhelming. My guess is they get another "veteran innings eater" aka more of what we have, and then we get a standard puzzling Elias Fraizer/Aguliar/Phillips move. We don't help the log jam and we hear about how a "deal couldn't be worked" aka we want to hoard prospects. 

 

I have serious doubts that they make some kind of push us over the edge flashy move. 

I hope that you are wrong. But I definitely see where you are coming from given past behavior.

But I believe this year is different, we are much better/further along than last year. And we are primed positioned to not only qualify for the playoffs but win once we get there. If we have better starting pitching. Which should be easily obtainable given the over abundance of resources that we possess. 

I’m not sure that they can “hoard” prospects even if they want to. There is a logjam now as we speak and no where to put the guys that they have. Surely they are not planning to leave Westburg in AAA all Summer. What happens to Ortiz when Urias comes back? You can send him back down for now, but you can’t leave him down there for the rest of the year can (given that this is his age 25 season)? He’s sort of entering into his prime. Would it be prudent to leave Cowser in AAA all season, given how he has performed this year? And what about the guys under them like Mayo, Prieto? Who will need to be moved up to AAA?

It’s not a simple matter of promoting guys to the Big Leagues because there is currently no place to put them. And when you combine that with the gaping hole in the front of our seating staff, a trade is the logical conclusion and makes too much sense.

[Bemorewins]

25 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Agreed, interesting doesn't necessarily mean splashy. It could be trading Urias or one of the more marginal guys who is forced out and then promoting Westburg. I haven't seen a compelling target for a TOR starter to get through trade. I am prepared for any outcome. 

Is Jesus Luzardo from MIA compelling to you? MIA is the opposite of us in that they have too many starting pitchers and not enough bats. They just brought up their top pitching prospect who was the top pitching prospect in baseball. And they have one more  who is about Major League ready and no place to put him. Their problem is that they can’t score enough runs to compete with teams like ATL and the Mets. Them trading Luzardo for a few of our position prospects makes a lot of sense for both sides.

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I hope that you are wrong. But I definitely see where you are coming from given past behavior.

 

I think we have two main things holding the team back from being players for a front line pitcher.

I think Elias is overly risk adverse and I think ownership isn't willing to take on much additional payroll.

[Bemorewins]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think we have two main things holding the team back from being players for a front line pitcher.

I think Elias is overly risk adverse and I think ownership isn't willing to take on much additional payroll.

If ownership will considering this now, given how the team has performed relative to the competition thus far, and given how low the payroll is; they probably never will. I mean how much do Luzardo/Cease/Eduardo etc make? None is a 20 million a year type of contract. 

Now regarding Elias, if that proves to be true this year, then we have trouble. At some point he is not going to be able to hedge his bets. We are already starting to develop a problem of too many position players now. What happens next year when Mayo and Holliday could be knocking on the door? There’s just no place to put everyone. And beyond that what would then be his plan to acquire sufficient starting pitching. I think the odds are EXTREMELY LOW of us winning 3 rounds in the AL with this subpar starting staff that we have now. We have 4 “5 and five guys” and one league average guy who can give a little more length. I’m not even sure that we can make it through September and finish strong like this. There is a lot of pressure and early season strain on Cano and Bautista. How many times throughout the year are we going to ask them to go multiple innings and is that sustainable w the risk of arm fatigue/injury?

[Aristotelian]

18 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Is Jesus Luzardo from MIA compelling to you? MIA is the opposite of us in that they have too many starting pitchers and not enough bats. They just brought up their top pitching prospect who was the top pitching prospect in baseball. And they have one more  who is about Major League ready and no place to put him. Their problem is that they can’t score enough runs to compete with teams like ATL and the Mets. Them trading Luzardo for a few of our position prospects makes a lot of sense for both sides.

Luzardo for Westburg? Haven't seen him pitch. That could be interesting. Not sure I fully trust him as a TOR guy. Probably a good deal for both sides but would be slightly disappointing. 

[Bemorewins]

7 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Luzardo for Westburg? Haven't seen him pitch. That could be interesting. Not sure I fully trust him as a TOR guy. Probably a good deal for both sides but would be slightly disappointing. 

We are not getting Luzardo for just Westburg? Might want to try again with that one. 

I appreciate you sharing that you haven’t seen him pitch before. But let’s just say, he is much better than anything we currently have.

You are not interest in Eduardo Rodriguez or Dylan Cease? … Again they are MUCH better than what we have currently. To be honest Rodriguez is having a career, all-star year, and will probably be in the running for the Cy Young if he keeps pitching like he has. The only issue with him is the opt-out in his contract at the end of this year.

[SemperFi]

20 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

If we are going to win a World Series or at least give ourselves a chance to be among the favorites, (ANY YEAR not just this one) we are going to need more than Grayson.

I don't agree with Plan B involving waiting until the offseason. 1) The Orioles under our current horrible ownership are not ever likely to make that kind of financial investment. 2) You don't know who will be available and too many variables are unknowable to go about things that way deriving any certainty. The moment for us is this year's trade deadline window because this opportunity might not present itself again next year. Who knows what kind injuries or regressions will happen next year? 3) That whole taking other teams scraps and shaking trees theory, has been proven to be repeatable for bullpen success. The odds of that working and working more than once is very low when it comes to impact starting pitchers. They are a very precious commodity in the game and usually orgs treat them as such. You might be able to get a back end of the rotation guy that way, but a top level starter, that's very unlikely.

Bmore,

I like your thinking and agree with you on many points.  I like ME and trust his judgement over mine however the one thing that doesn't make sense is:    

Left Field 

ME stated that it was rebuilt to "attract" pitchers (specifically free agents) and he (for whatever reason) has not been able to do so.  It wasn't built to retain (home grown or by trade) it was built to attract. 

So if we try to define his strategy we have to start with understanding LF.  Maybe it's changed and he will pursue a trade for a TOR starter, the Orioles desperately need innings-the bullpen cannot keep this pace.....

 Maybe it has changed so quickly; that's a little disconcerting but better than sticking with a flawed plan.