Specific Trade Ideas

[interloper]

4 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

In your opinion, was what the Angels gave up for Giolito "too expensive"? Do you think that the Orioles could have done that move or can make a similar move?

You didn't ask me, but I think in a vacuum (i.e.: taking the Angels' now barren farm system out of the equation) it's a fair deal. 

I saw someone here say the equivalent for us would have been Ortiz and McDermott. I'm not sure that's completely accurate, but let's pretend it is. Would I be okay with dealing one of our top MI prospects for arguably the best rental SP available plus a solid bullpen arm with a big fastball? I mean... probably? Especially considering the health of our farm system and the very real path to the World Series this year. It would hurt, but the boost for the team would be undeniable. 

The caveat here is that I think you can get a similar pitcher for less prospect cost, and that's what I'm hoping Elias does. 

Edited July 27, 2023 by interloper

[e16bball]

32 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Norby is probably an OFer though.

If Norby is an OF, then I think we have to try to dump him immediately, while someone out there might still consider him a 2B. There’s not much value in a 23-year-old corner OF with a league-average bat at AAA.

[RarityFlaherty]

4 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

In your opinion, was what the Angels gave up for Giolito "too expensive"? Do you think that the Orioles could have done that move or can make a similar move?

 No. I think it was a good move and I think the orioles could definitely make a similar move. But it’s hard to compare because maybe the white Sox wanted Quero and not someone like Norby who is similarly ranked. It’s not as simple as just looking at prospect rankings. 

[HakunaSakata]

3 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

Snell has the advantage on ERA and K’s per 9 but has the walk issues as you stated.  Rodriguez has the advantage on WHIP and innings per start. With being LH I don’t think you can go wrong either way. But I would lean a little Rodriguez’s way right now. There’s nothing “ridiculous” here. 

What is ridiculous is how you suggest a prospect equivalent between the Angels top prospects and the O’s. Just because the Angels had to give up a prospect in the 60’s doesn’t mean the O’s have to give up their much higher rated prospect. The “top” prospect that the Angels gave up is about equivalent with Connor Norby who I don’t consider “one of our top guys”.

Why don't you do a poll and let's see how many folks thinks E-Rod is a better pitcher than Snell. And I don't get your second point. Are you trying to suggest that Snell/Hader aren't worth signifiantly more than Giolito/Lopez (i.e., they should command more)?  My point was if the White Sox could get a top 60ish prospect then it's not outrageous to think that the Padres can get a top 30ish prospect (maybe more). Better/more valuable players cost more. That's the way it works. 

[Hallas]

Is anyone interested in parting with Cowser?  I don't have a ton of faith in him sticking at CF, and while I'm certain he's not as bad as he's shown, if he can't stick in CF then I don't think his bat will carry him at a corner OF spot.  But we have injuries in the outfield and I don't think we can part with him this trade deadline unless we trade for someone like Bellinger, so he might be more of an offseason move.

 

How about Snell for Stowers and Norby?  Do we need to throw in a pitcher?

Edited July 27, 2023 by Hallas

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Hallas said:

Is anyone interested in parting with Cowser?  I don't have a ton of faith in him sticking at CF, and while I'm certain he's not as bad as he's shown, if he can't stick in CF then I don't think his bat will carry him at a corner OF spot.  But we have injuries in the outfield and I don't think we can part with him this trade deadline unless we trade for someone like Bellinger, so he might be more of an offseason move.

 

How about Snell for Stowers and Norby?  Do we need to throw in a pitcher?

I don't have him on the untouchable list but I'm not eager to move him.

[Billy F-Face3]

The more I think about it, the more I think the criticisms of misjudging the market and hesitating are very fair criticisms. 

Even just a week or 2 ago, Elias was on air saying they didn't know what the market would be. 

It seems to me like there is a gaping hole with their ability to gather information on the other clubs and the players agents out there. They seem to fail to anticipate the supply and demand of player talent available.

Orioles might lack some intelligence gathering around the league. It would be prudent to correct that. They wouldn't want more opportunities slipping by, to the point they're wasting these best years with the players they do have.

[MarCakes21]

3 hours ago, HakunaSakata said:

Why would a team that's not going for it want Mountcastle? I also don't think he has much trade value. Povich could probably be a part of the trade, but certainly not the headliner. Also, the Padres aren't going to get a comparable package they're going to get a MUCH BETTER package. Snell/Hader >>>>> Giolito/Lopez. 

Mountcastle is Arb1 next year, controllable for 3 more, and shown great upside out of Walltimore.  I think this is a guy who needs a change of scenary to be a top 10 first baseman.  If the Padres want to believe that or not that's a different story.  But knowing what you're getting is sometimes better than a prospect.  And for 2+ months of a pitcher, doesn't seem terrible.

[interloper]

1 minute ago, MarCakes21 said:

Mountcastle is Arb1 next year, controllable for 3 more, and shown great upside out of Walltimore.  I think this is a guy who needs a change of scenary to be a top 10 first baseman.  If the Padres want to believe that or not that's a different story.  But knowing what you're getting is sometimes better than a prospect.  And for 2+ months of a pitcher, doesn't seem terrible.

I agree. If you put yourself in the shoes of a theoretical Mountcastle-less and Walltimore-less Orioles organization circa 2021 or 2022 who are hoping to contend soon but don't have a 1B, he's the exact type of guy that would be smart to target. ML-ready, power-hitter, young and controllable, has some things that you think you can fix, etc. There are some teams who would take him all day. The problem is he's not a guy every team would take. It's got to be a specific fit. 

[MarCakes21]

1 minute ago, interloper said:

I agree. If you put yourself in the shoes of a theoretical Mountcastle-less and Walltimore-less Orioles organization circa 2021 or 2022 who are hoping to contend soon but don't have a 1B, he's the exact type of guy that would be smart to target. ML-ready, power-hitter, young and controllable, has some things that you think you can fix, etc. There are some teams who would take him all day. The problem is he's not a guy every team would take. It's got to be a specific fit. 

SD seems to make sense.  They're starting a light hitting 1B who is back down in Cronenworth.  They want to win next year, and are trading 2 guys for 2+ months, for a guy with 3+ years left.  They're in win now mode for the next 6-8 years through the primes of their guys

[interloper]

6 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

SD seems to make sense.  They're starting a light hitting 1B who is back down in Cronenworth.  They want to win next year, and are trading 2 guys for 2+ months, for a guy with 3+ years left.  They're in win now mode for the next 6-8 years through the primes of their guys

I like that fit. 

[Bemorewins]

47 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

Why is there inherently anymore risk in someone like Cabrera than there is Cowser? As the other person pointed out Cabrera has A TON of upside Just as much if not more than someone like Cowser. That's the type of trade that would make a lot of sense for both teams, but it would be more about the future than ramping up for a playoff run this season. 

We are not counting on any significant contribution from Cowser this year to be successful. IMO we need better pitching to give ourselves an improved chance at postseason success.

Your last statement is where we don’t agree and I’m sure you knew that already.

IMO there is no guarantee in the future that we have as good of an opportunity as we do know. I hope our future is bright and this is just the beginning of a multiple year run. But that is not assured to us. It makes little sense to me to punt/pass up this present opportunity in order to possibly improve a little in the future when we may not have the best record in the AL.

[Greg Pappas]

If Elias did 'go for it', one team that matches up well with us is St. Louis.  While the odds of a blockbuster are understandably remote, Goldschmidt (35.9 yo-FA 2025), Montgomery (30.6 yo-FA 2024) and Jordan Hicks (26.9 yo-FA 2024) would add quite a lot to the team and set us up for a big finish to the season.  We'd be getting a clean-up power bat and multi-time All Star 1B, signed through next season, and two rental pitchers that would complete the needs of our pitching staffs. 

The cost would be high, and trying to pinpoint what would be fair or even doable from our side, is daunting.  However, if we break it down by players, and match what the Cardinals need, we can try.

1. Ortiz, McDermott and Mountcastle for Goldschmidt.
2. Povich and Fabian for Montgomery.
3. Willems and Bright for Hicks?  This one is the toughest to figure lol

I'd hate to lose Ortiz in particular, but we'd keep our blue-chippers Holliday, Westburg, Cowser, Mayo, Kjerstad and Basallo.

Again, I'm just spit-balling something unexpected, and the package may not be as close as I think it is.

[interloper]

2 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

If Elias did 'go for it', one team that matches up well with us is St. Louis.  While the odds of a blockbuster are understandably remote, Goldschmidt (35.9 yo-FA 2025), Montgomery (30.6 yo-FA 2024) and Jordan Hicks (26.9 yo-FA 2024) would add quite a lot to the team and set us up for a big finish to the season.  We'd be getting a clean-up power bat and multi-time All Star 1B, signed through next season, and two rental pitchers that would complete the needs of our pitching staffs. 

The cost would be high, and trying to pinpoint what would be fair or even doable from our side, is daunting.  However, if we break it down by players, and match what the Cardinals need, we can try.

1. Ortiz, McDermott and Mountcastle for Goldschmidt.
2. Povich and Fabian for Montgomery.
3. Willems and Bright for Hicks?  This one is the toughest to figure lol

I'd hate to lose Ortiz in particular, but we'd keep our blue-chippers Holliday, Westburg, Cowser, Mayo, Kjerstad and Basallo.

Again, I'm just spit-balling something unexpected, and the package may not be as close as I think it is.

Personally I love it.

[Billy F-Face3]

3 minutes ago, interloper said:

Personally I love it.

I don't know if I love it, but I do like it.