MLB article on what it would take to get Shohei Ohtani. Has Orioles trading 5 guys. Boston 1.

[Gurgi]

I cant see Elias and John Angelos giving away five guys for a  bigger stash of lottery tickets in the post season.  John wants the Orioles to be run like Milwaukee and the Rays.  Elias stated in his opening press conference the Orioles would be a draft and develop team.  

I think if Peter still was aware of the world he would do the trade.  Just for a chance to win before the end.  I dont think John thinks this way yet.  

Also Elias wants to dominate the East for years....I dont think he would imagine this trade doing that.  

I think he will husband his prospects and deal them out to get pitching and pitching that is controllable.  

Nothing about a Shohei deal makes long term sense.  I think we work to add to the team on a budget.  Probably get bullpen help and maybe some number 2 starting pitcher.  I dont think we are going for any true ace.  

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Billy F-Face3 said:

If you can prove to them that Ohtani is a good investment for the revenue, it's always a possibility. But I don't think it would be that quick. They can't even work out a lease deal in over a year so no chance they'd approve a deal in 36 hours.

I'm sure there is reams of data on what the economic impact would be. 

I don't think it matters.

The Angelos family doesn't move decisively. 

[Hallas]

9 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

But what does that mean?  Currently on Fangraphs the O's have a 3.6% chance of winning the Series. The top three teams are the Braves (25%), Dodgers (12.2%) and Rays (11.5%). Let's say Ohtani lets the O's switch places with the Rays.

Do you trade five very solid prospects for a one-year, 8% increase in the odds of winning the World Series? I don't know. It might be exciting, if he stays healthy and they make a run. But even once you make the playoffs you have steep odds against not going home disappointed.

And you have to assume Ohtani isn't signing his next contract with the O's. It'll be a Reggie situation. The O's have given out one $100M+ contract ever, and Ohtani will require $500M. That's just not happening. The trade is for two months plus playoffs of Ohtani.

I think that Ohtani and his 3.5-4 WAR ROS projection increases our chances by more than that, and increases our odds of making it to the WS by a large amount.  Fangraphs ZIPS ROS projection has us going 33-33.  Subbing in Ohtani would probably increase that to 36-30, which would make us the favorite to win the division and get a first round bye.  In the trade scenario proposed, the only player that would impact our future is Hall in a best-case scenario, because most of the players traded are blocked anyway.

I'm going to say that making it to the WS is enough to make the strategy sucecssful, because once you're there anything can happen in a best-of-7 series.

[Moose Milligan]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Do you think you could get ownership to approve any sort of deal that quickly?

Me? Yes. Ala Godfather, I’d make them an offer they couldn’t refuse. 
 

I don’t know if Elias would. 

[EddeeEddee]

55 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

So the Sox trade 1 guy and we trade 5  

 

The writer is clearly a Red Sox homer

Marcelo Mayer is the 3rd best prospect in all of baseball according to MLB.com.  The Red Sox trading him would be like the O's trading Jackson Holliday.  

[waroriole]

26 minutes ago, Hallas said:

I'm not sure why you think Montgomery is mediocre.  Hes been solidly above average for 4 straight seasons and is currently having a career year.  I think Gausman during his Orioles tenure is a good comp.  That's at least a solid #2 starter for nearly every team in baseball and a budget-tier ace for at least 10 teams.

Mediocre is a bad choice of worse from me. I think I said solid in another post. That’s more accurate. I just don’t know that he really moves the needle. I’d prefer we spend on Hader. 

[TheWall]

3 minutes ago, EddeeEddee said:

Marcelo Mayer is the 3rd best prospect in all of baseball according to MLB.com.  The Red Sox trading him would be like the O's trading Jackson Holliday.  

Yeah, and these articles are just random approximations. Mayer is very highly touted and if he was the centerpiece in an Ohtani trade it would certainly decrease the number of players the Sox would have to send. Maybe they'd send 1 or 2 other smaller pieces or maybe the Os would only send 4 players, but the framework makes sense. 

[EddeeEddee]

18 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

If you can prove to them that Ohtani is a good investment for the revenue, it's always a possibility. But I don't think it would be that quick. They can't even work out a lease deal in over a year so no chance they'd approve a deal in 36 hours.

Only maybe the Dodgers could work out a deal that quickly.  But any team that signs Ohtani suddenly has a huge fanbase from Japan -- a country nearly half the size of the US.  

[Morgan423]

You or I might put on a comedy special if we needed a little levity to unwind.

Mike Elias?  He reads articles like this, and laughs and laughs and laughs.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Morgan423 said:

You or I might put on a comedy special if we needed a little levity to unwind.

Mike Elias?  He reads articles like this, and laughs and laughs and laughs.

I don't think he has the time to read articles like that.

[Camden Yards]

42 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

But what does that mean?  Currently on Fangraphs the O's have a 3.6% chance of winning the Series. The top three teams are the Braves (25%), Dodgers (12.2%) and Rays (11.5%). Let's say Ohtani lets the O's switch places with the Rays.

Do you trade five very solid prospects for a one-year, 8% increase in the odds of winning the World Series? I don't know. It might be exciting, if he stays healthy and they make a run. But even once you make the playoffs you have steep odds against not going home disappointed.

And you have to assume Ohtani isn't signing his next contract with the O's. It'll be a Reggie situation. The O's have given out one $100M+ contract ever, and Ohtani will require $500M. That's just not happening. The trade is for two months plus playoffs of Ohtani.

I agree. Less than 1% it happens. But I would do it. I am not worried about Fangraphs percentages. The percentages have been off about the Orioles for the past year. 
Where do you see those five prospects impacting the Orioles in the next few years? Or do you think we trade some of them for other pieces?

[Gurgi]

10 minutes ago, Camden Yards said:

I agree. Less than 1% it happens. But I would do it. I am not worried about Fangraphs percentages. The percentages have been off about the Orioles for the past year. 
Where do you see those five prospects impacting the Orioles in the next few years? Or do you think we trade some of them for other pieces?

I think it is fairly obvious we would not keep guys in AAA for extended time (past 2 seasons) if they were legit blocked by players we valued more in Baltimore.  I think they would be dealt in packages to get pitching.  

[MurphDogg]

I think it is fair to say that whoever wins the AL East has top 4 World Series odds along with the Rangers, Dodgers and Braves, simply because they will play one fewer series than the other 4 teams.

Plus they will be fresh for the ALDS so they can line up their best pitcher to pitch twice and the bullpen will be fully rested.

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, banks703 said:

And doesn't make a lot of since given that the Angels have Neto and 3 of their top 7 prospects are Middle Infielders. It's like the dude didn't even do any homework whatsoever. 

I expect and respect the fact that everyone has their own opinion about our prospects and whether or not we should make any trades. But from a pure logic perspective, if the Angels value another team's prospects at whatever position better than their own, they are not going to hesitate to acquire the better player(s) if that's the best trade that they can make, especially if the difference in the caliber of player is significant like it would be if they acquire some of our infield prospects as compared to their non-catching prospects.

[AnythingO's]

55 minutes ago, EddeeEddee said:

Only maybe the Dodgers could work out a deal that quickly.  But any team that signs Ohtani suddenly has a huge fanbase from Japan -- a country nearly half the size of the US.  

Less than 40% of the population I believe so close enough, but not nearly half the "size" (land mass) more like less than 5%

Edited July 21, 2023 by AnythingO's
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