Could Elias call up our 19-year old SS phenom?

[Billy F-Face3]

16 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

He’s not “leapfrogging” anyone. He is already at the top of the pile at #1. He has no catching up to do at all.

He is almost assuredly to get better and stronger next year as he transitions from his teens. He is ALREADY our best prospect and very very likely to get/be better next year. 

I don’t think any other player (maybe Kerjstad) in our entire org has a 70 hit tool like Holliday does.

When I say "leapfrog" I am not talking about baseball top 100 prospect rankings. I am talking about ETA, minor/major league level, seniority, age, and the 40 man roster. (We have to DFA and give up a couple players from the 40 man roster before there is any room for Jackson to be called up.)

Elias has shown he likes to give opportunities to prospects who have been jn the system longer, and he views it as "graduating". This is why Kyle Stowers and Tarrin Vavra got opportunities in the major league level before Joey Ortiz and Jordan Westburg did. 

The Orioles front office seems to have a linear way of approaching promotions, and minor league age and service time are definately considerations.

MLB Pipeline estimates Jackson Holliday to have a call up ETA arrivale of 2024. They are usually pretty accurate in their ETA estimations.

[SilverRocket]

5 hours ago, Alasdaire said:

"Worry" and "Holliday" don't belong in the same sentence

Even if what you're saying is true and two of his five hits are balls that an infielder/outfielder gets to in the big leagues, that's still a 3/5 night in the MLB. Prospects aren't expected to maintain the same production in the MLB as they are the minors.

The fact that he puts the ball in play at such a prolific rate is something he should be commended for. He always has a high BAbip, but his average is also consistently high, so it's not an instance where you can say he's getting lucky.

Is he a destroyer of worlds? No, but he's also 19 and going to get much stronger. And even now, his ISO suggests there's plenty of raw power there.

I can certainly commend him. I'm pretty positive he'll have a great career. But the question is if he got called up right now at 19yo to help with the pennant race, what's the average result? There's a chance he would contribute, but also a chance he puts up a .650 OPS because that's a pretty normal result for a superprospect his age.

I would say Manny overperformed the average case in his callup, but the team also had such a defensive black hole at 3B that if he did put up a .650 OPS, that could've still been a positive contribution. That's not the case with our current team.

[banks703]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

In most cases that is true in Holliday’s that likely is not. It could be that when he gets to the Majors he can’t handle it. But there is literally NOTHING that we have seen from him thus far that suggests that. What he has done this year is VERY RARE. None of our other top prospects have done this AND he is only NINETEEN!

Again, that doesn’t take anything away from prospects who are very good in their own right like Cowser, Westburg, Ortiz, etc. But Holliday is in a league/class of his own.

He’s a tick above those guys for sure but I have Gunnar, who I see as Seager-good (with better defense) ahead of Holliday. 

[Rbiggs2525]

2 hours ago, banks703 said:

The bat is no doubt ahead of Manny for their age 19 seasons. We could make the argument that Holliday is a year, maybe two ahead of Manny at the plate. I keep stating that he could hit for average in the majors right now. Like, right now.

The defense though, which made Manny a more complete player, is far and above what Jackson Holliday will ever be able to do on a baseball field. He just doesn’t have that elite defensive piece to his game, which is why I keep stating that he’s going to end up at 2B, where his below average arm for SS isn’t as much of an issue.

I don’t mean to sell Holliday short. He’s an elite hitter and is going to have a very successful career and help the O’s win a lot of game while making a lot of money..because of his hit tool.

Manny was a more complete prospect than Holliday and played in an era of minor league baseball that saw no pitch clock, no shift rules, better team ERAs, lower team OPS, etc. 

I think people are foolishly underestimating Jackson Holliday defense. He has one thing that Manny didn’t have. Mental toughness. He will never be able to make the 1% plays Manny made. He could be more like Anthony Volpe who does it with range and quick release. I believe Manny was drafted as 50 speed and 45 future. Jackson is now 60 speed. Toughness beats talent every day.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Rbiggs2525 said:

I think people are foolishly underestimating Jackson Holliday defense. He has one thing that Manny didn’t have. Mental toughness. He will never be able to make the 1% plays Manny made. He could be more like Anthony Volpe who does it with range and quick release. I believe Manny was drafted as 50 speed and 45 future. Jackson is now 60 speed. Toughness beats talent every day.

[Chavez Ravine]

8 minutes ago, Rbiggs2525 said:

I think people are foolishly underestimating Jackson Holliday defense. He has one thing that Manny didn’t have. Mental toughness. He will never be able to make the 1% plays Manny made. He could be more like Anthony Volpe who does it with range and quick release. I believe Manny was drafted as 50 speed and 45 future. Jackson is now 60 speed. Toughness beats talent every day.

Lol. If that were true, I wouldn't be spending this much time on this board. Granted, I'm not that tough either, but still.

[TopGunnar]

Personally I don’t think he’s anywhere near MLB ready. A lot of his hits are singles. Which is still good. But I’d like to see him develop more power and more experience first. I don’t think we see him until late next season, and that’s if he is tearing the cover off the ball on the farm

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, Chavez Ravine said:

Lol. If that were true, I wouldn't be spending this much time on this board. Granted, I'm not that tough either, but still.

You put a bunch of really tough guys that don't know how to play baseball on the field against a group of milquetoast guys with a lot of baseball talent and I know what team I'm picking.

[Alasdaire]

32 minutes ago, SilverRocket said:

I can certainly commend him. I'm pretty positive he'll have a great career. But the question is if he got called up right now at 19yo to help with the pennant race, what's the average result? There's a chance he would contribute, but also a chance he puts up a .650 OPS because that's a pretty normal result for a superprospect his age.

I would say Manny overperformed the average case in his callup, but the team also had such a defensive black hole at 3B that if he did put up a .650 OPS, that could've still been a positive contribution. That's not the case with our current team.

I would say it's a concern with any prospect that MLB pitchers might overwhelm them. I don't necessarily think that a 23 year old who has never produced at the level that Jackson is as a 19 year old is in a decidedly better position to succeed just because of age. And the BAbip/ISO don't suggest to me that he's either lucky or hitting dribblers. His production at AA is what it is, and if anything doing it at that age shows that he has a deep understanding of hitting.

Where I do think age comes into play is in the field. Things like going through all of the potential scenarios for a ball put in play and knowing hitters' tendencies so that you align yourself perfectly are things that only come with age and experience. There's also typically a bigger cost to not making an out in the field than there is making an out at the plate. I don't think Hyde would feel at all comfortable running Holliday out there at second if he made a couple of errors.

[banks703]

32 minutes ago, Rbiggs2525 said:

I think people are foolishly underestimating Jackson Holliday defense. He has one thing that Manny didn’t have. Mental toughness. He will never be able to make the 1% plays Manny made. He could be more like Anthony Volpe who does it with range and quick release. I believe Manny was drafted as 50 speed and 45 future. Jackson is now 60 speed. Toughness beats talent every day.

[Uli2001]

6 hours ago, banks703 said:

All respect in the world to you and Jackson Holliday. He’s a great talent but comparing him to Alex Rodriguez is absurd and will disappoint a lot of people if they latch onto that. Holliday is an elite prospect but he’s not on the ARod level. He’s not on Manny’s level.

Sorry.

He is likely to have a great career but he’s not going to have ARod’s career and probably won’t have Manny’s career. Nothing wrong with that of course. I’m ecstatic that he’s in the O’s system but this is the reality of who he is as a player.

As far was worrying about the quality of 19 year old Jackson Holliday’s hits at Bowie, where he’s like three and a half years younger than the average player… lol 

How do you know if he's or he's not on anybody's level? He hasn't had a single at-bat in the majors. I am just curious where this certainty is coming from.

[Uli2001]

22 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You put a bunch of really tough guys that don't know how to play baseball on the field against a group of milquetoast guys with a lot of baseball talent and I know what team I'm picking.

I am picking the milquetoast guys too.

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

When I say "leapfrog" I am not talking about baseball top 100 prospect rankings. I am talking about ETA, minor/major league level, seniority, age, and the 40 man roster. (We have to DFA and give up a couple players from the 40 man roster before there is any room for Jackson to be called up.)

Elias has shown he likes to give opportunities to prospects who have been jn the system longer, and he views it as "graduating". This is why Kyle Stowers and Tarrin Vavra got opportunities in the major league level before Joey Ortiz and Jordan Westburg did. 

The Orioles front office seems to have a linear way of approaching promotions, and minor league age and service time are definately considerations.

MLB Pipeline estimates Jackson Holliday to have a call up ETA arrivale of 2024. They are usually pretty accurate in their ETA estimations.

Understood.

IMO Holliday should and probably will be handled different as Gunnar was.

I agree with 2024 timeline. Hopefully he starts out on Opening Day.

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, banks703 said:

He’s a tick above those guys for sure but I have Gunnar, who I see as Seager-good (with better defense) ahead of Holliday. 

I think Gunnar has more physical talent and is probably a better athlete though Holliday is still growing/maturing physically.

Holliday appears to have a better hit tool. Though Gunnar has more power.

Both are elite level prospects/young players with superstar potential.

[banks703]

1 minute ago, Bemorewins said:

I think Gunnar has more physical talent and is probably a better athlete though Holliday is still growing/maturing physically.

Holliday appears to have a better hit tool. Though Gunnar has more power.

Both are elite level prospects/young players with superstar potential.

The defense is not close and never will be close between them. Gunnar is head and shoulders above Holliday (and was at the same age) on the defensive side of the ball.