Adam Frazier should not play in the field

[Frobby]

By the way, Catch Probability does take direction into account, and estimates that the folder loses 1 ft./sec when going back on a ball.   https://www.mlb.com/news/catch-probability-updated-to-include-direction-c232532408

Answering a question I’ve had for a while, they also now adjust for catches made at or near the wall.  https://www.mlb.com/news/catch-probability-updated-to-account-for-walls-c269814542

[LA2]

1 hour ago, Otter said:

I certainly don't want to get into another Frazier/Westburg debate that's already been beaten to death, but I also think it's extremely clear that Westburg is the superior defender either judging by stats or the eye test.  It's obvious that Hyde loves Frazier's clutchiness/veteranosity, and as the season winds down he seems to be playing him more.  But what seems most confusing to me is why Hyde doesn't replace Frazier for defense late in games with Urias or Westburg....I'd also imagine Mateo could play a much better 2B as well.  

I think it's because in a game where you don't have the lead one is hesitant to replace a proven clutch bat for a late-inning defensive replacement who doesn't have good clutch stats and hasn't hit nearly as many home runs, which at that point in the game, seemed potentially game-winning.

[Tony-OH]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

I appreciate the research information.  Still, you’ve played enough baseball to know that it’s easier to run and track a ball running sideways and in than it is to catch one running way into the outfield than the infield.   Also, and this was my big gripe, running in you have a shot to make a strong throw home.  Frazier had no shot to make any kind of decent throw with his momentum going the opposite direction.   

And forget the .100 xBA, since as you know, xBA only looks at EV and launch angle, and not where the ball was hit on the field.   Your catch probability research is better.  I wish though that Statcast would make this data more available on a play-by-play basis and maybe publish a chart that shows that on average, if the distance is X and the hang time is Y, then the catch probability is Z.   That shouldn’t be hard to do.
 

Did you think Hicks should have made the play? I initially did until I saw that post about him needing to go 114 feet. Once I timed the amount of time in the air, I think that catch probably for Hicks was very low and when you add in a fielder running out and getting there first, I think the probably of him calling him off and making the play to be almost 0%.

I know xBA is not a perfect estimation and catch probability is better, but they don't share catch probability for infielders. And once it hit Frazier's glove, I think it gave the play to Frazier and not Hicks so their is no way other to try and find an outfielder who had to run 114 feet around 5.1 seconds and see the catch probabilities. Even that is not perfect because catch proximity takes into consideration the angle the outfielders have to run in.

I agree with you though, I wish more data was available to the general public on this including in game information on catch probability.