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Friday, September 22: Orioles face Guardians and Shane Bieber (just off the IL)


SteveA

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    • I just don't trust that Luzardo is healthy even if he's controllable for a couple more years.
    • That’s interesting.      Kjerstad and Povich for Crochet?  
    • Well, yes and no.  It still remains to be seen how high attendance can go.   Let’s say that attendance this year falls 150,000 short of 2014.   (I’m not saying it will, but that’s not implausible at present.)   At that point, I think you have to ask why.  That 2014 team was in its third straight winning season and was the best team we’d had in a long time.  This 2024 team is in its third straight winning season and is probably the best team we’ve had in several decades.   So how did we lose 150,000 fans (if that turns out to be the situation)?   The O’s were 14th in MLB in attendance in 2014, they’re 18th now despite the great team they have.  
    • Eno Sarris of The Athletic Two who might just make it Cade Povich, Orioles The four-seam fastball almost landed Povich on the worrisome warts list because it’s not good. It has less ride than most four-seamers and sits 92 mph, a full two ticks below league average. Stuff+ hates the pitch (73) and that lines up with the FanGraphs scouting grades (45 present value), but he’s managed to locate it almost exclusively at the top of the zone and (so far) out of the happy zones (.190 slugging against). If you’ve read this far, the caveat for Povich will be of no surprise: His cutter looks decent, and he featured it more heavily in his second start. That pitch has more vertical and horizontal break than the average cutter, hums along at a decent 88 mph, and though it’s been hit hard so far, has better underpinnings for future success. The best news for Povich is a decent mix of three secondary pitches: an above-average sweeper, a big slow curveball, and a changeup that doesn’t have much to speak for it movement or velocity-wise but hasn’t allowed great contact so far (.200 slugging). Povich got a 45 current command grade and a 60 future from FanGraphs, and there’s a gulf between those numbers. If he succeeds, it’s as a command-and-mix guy who throws just enough four-seamers and cutters to keep the batter guessing. This is not the profile of a pitcher who will overpower hitters with any of his pitches. It’s also worth pointing out that the league is getting better and better at hitting sweepers, which might not be a great thing for this starter, as that pitch grades out the best of all of his offerings.
    • Going up against a LHP, so you know we're going to see McCann. There will be lots of complaining.
    • Our whole outfield situation is very unsettled.  It would be hard to guess today who will be starting playoff games in the OF, other than Santander.   I’m hoping Cowser eventually takes off again, but he’s been pretty tough to watch at times over the last 6 weeks. Stowers could grab a spot.  Hays has been hot of late and we’ll see if that continues.   Mullins has sucked for 6-7 weeks but I haven’t given up on the guy.   Kjerstad continues to rake in the minors and you have to think he’ll get another opportunity at some point.  It’s just really hard to know how the rest of this season will go for our outfielders and who will be hot when playoff time comes. 
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