2024 Opening Day Roster

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Rbiggs2525 said:

I can’t believe this thread has gone on this long. Let’s enjoy tonight and the rest of the season.

One can discuss next seasons roster and enjoy tonight’s game and the rest of the season.  Multi tasking!

[wildcard]

10 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

If both Means and Santander were to have successful years without contract extensions, could we hit both with QO and get comp picks back? 

I don't think Means would net the O's  a compensation pick because the stats are looked at over a 2 year period for eligibility and he hardly pitched this year.

So that is one more reason to sign Means to more than a one year contract rather than let him walk for nothing.

The number of comp picks a team can get in any one year is 4.

Edited September 26, 2023 by wildcard

[Hank Scorpio]

10 hours ago, Pickles said:

Yes, his career of not having a high K rate and "not missing bats."

Dude, calm down.  Take a breath.

 

Francis Sawyer. Legendary.

[Sports Guy]

5 hours ago, ShoelesJoe said:

I think Elias & Co realize that we're not quite as good as our record this year. Our pythag has us as a 95 win team for the season, 7 games behind the Rays (pythag 102-60). If those were the actual team W/L in 2023 would we be seeing seeing a lot "if it aint broke don't fix it" arguments here? I doubt it. We need to stop acting like we're the best team in the AL because we're not, a fact that will probably become apparent during our first playoff series.

I expect there to be a significant effort to upgrade the team during the offseason, with at least one major addition to both the rotation and the bullpen. It would not surprise me if there was a major offseason trade between the Orioles and the Mariners, where we acquired a starter and reliever in exchange for 3-4 players off our roster. They got little to nothing offensively from their 1B and 2B this year and will probably miss the playoffs because of it. The right trade would be a win win for both teams. 

IMO Holliday (assuming he isn't dealt) is our starting 2B out of spring training. I also believe that we'll be moving on from Urias, Mateo, and Frazier with their spots being taken over by whoever's not traded from the Norby, Westburg, Ortiz, Mayo group. Gunnar is our SS for the foreseeable future, JH at 2B, Westburg / Ortiz / Mayo at 3B, and O'Hearn / Mayo at 1B. I think Mountcastle is odd man out and is traded. 

OF is Kjerstad, Mullins, Hays, and Cowser. I'd love to have Hicks come back, but not sure he'd want to be a part time player. Santander is DH or traded. 

GRod, Bradish, and Kremer are givens for the rotation, plus another arm acquired in a trade.  Hall, Povich, Irvin, and McDermott fight for the fifth spot with the losers in the pen. I think if Hall goes to the pen he has a breakout season as a dominant reliever. 

Opening day lineup March 28, 2024

Holliday 2B

Rutschman C

Henderson SS

Santander DH

O'Hearn 1B

Westburg 3B

Mullins CF

Hays LF

Kjerstad RF

Bradish SP

=============

Game One ALDS lineup October 5, 2024

Holliday 2B

Rutschman C

Henderson SS

Mayo 1B

Basallo DH

Westburg 3B

Mullins CF

Hays LF

Kjerstad RF

Rodriguez SP

 

 

 

 

If he’s here, Kremer will be in the rotation imo.

But he should be dealt and the Os should look to get better there.

[Aristotelian]

10 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I don't think Means would net the O's  a compensation pick because the stats are looked at over a 2 year period for eligibility and he hardly pitched this year.

So that is one more reason to sign Means to more than a one year contract rather than let him walk for nothing.

The number of comp picks a team can get in any one year is 4.

All I am seeing on MLB.com is that you have to be on the team's roster since opening day and you haven't received a QO in your career. I am not seeing anything about two years of stats. The QO number is based on the average of the top 125 players. As far as I can tell, after the international draft failed the previous QO/Comp Pick system was left in place with no changes.  https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/qualifying-offer

[wildcard]

23 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

All I am seeing on MLB.com is that you have to be on the team's roster since opening day and you haven't received a QO in your career. I am not seeing anything about two years of stats. The QO number is based on the average of the top 125 players. As far as I can tell, after the international draft failed the previous QO/Comp Pick system was left in place with no changes.  https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/qualifying-offer

Maybe this is from a former CBA.   I can't tell right now and I have to go.  I will research it later.

"A team that loses a free agent that is ranked as a Type A, B, or C player will receive a draft choice as compensation. Determining which 'Type' a free agent is based on a statistical system created by the Elias Sports Bureau that uses statistics based on a 2-year average for each of the positions."

[Aristotelian]

12 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Maybe this is from a former CBA.   I can't tell right now and I have to go.  I will research it later.

"A team that loses a free agent that is ranked as a Type A, B, or C player will receive a draft choice as compensation. Determining which 'Type' a free agent is based on a statistical system created by the Elias Sports Bureau that uses statistics based on a 2-year average for each of the positions."

I believe that is an old system. I'm seeing articles referring to the Type A/B/C framework from 2011 or so. 

[wildcard]

20 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I believe that is an old system. I'm seeing articles referring to the Type A/B/C framework from 2011 or so. 

OK,  I will look into it later to satisfy my own curiosity.

[Just Regular]

I believe it is all qualifying offer driven this CBA.

Santander, Means, Mullins and Hays could all realize Elias extra draft capital this decade.

Mullins is probably the easiest reject, he ought to go well past ~3/50.   

Loosely a 3/50 opportunity seems about sufficient to decline ~1/20....its just a question of will each Orioles veteran perform well enough to command ~$50mm or up.

Maybe they'll be such good friends with Adley Rutschman they'll all take Frazier/Gibson contracts forever!!

 

[Aristotelian]

48 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

I believe it is all qualifying offer driven this CBA.

Santander, Means, Mullins and Hays could all realize Elias extra draft capital this decade.

Mullins is probably the easiest reject, he ought to go well past ~3/50.   

Loosely a 3/50 opportunity seems about sufficient to decline ~1/20....its just a question of will each Orioles veteran perform well enough to command ~$50mm or up.

Maybe they'll be such good friends with Adley Rutschman they'll all take Frazier/Gibson contracts forever!!

 

And 1/20 really wouldn't be far off of what I think Means would want for an extension year, and what the O's should pay. So offering the QO instead of an extension would give the Orioles a win/win scenario.

Santander is a bit more of a gamble. I don't think the O's would want to pay $20M for on OF/DH when they have guys like Kjerstad, Cowser, and Mayo getting close to MLB ready. There is some Colby Rasmus risk should he accept. 

[btdart20]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

And 1/20 really wouldn't be far off of what I think Means would want for an extension year, and what the O's should pay. So offering the QO instead of an extension would give the Orioles a win/win scenario.

Santander is a bit more of a gamble. I don't think the O's would want to pay $20M for on OF/DH when they have guys like Kjerstad, Cowser, and Mayo getting close to MLB ready. There is some Colby Rasmus risk should he accept. 

I like where you're head's at. 

If 2024 Means approximates 2021 Means, he could get the QO in a Gibson/Lyles sort of intent.  I think Means would turn it down and hope for longer terms/big total $ in the FA market.  

I doubt we QO Santander.  

[mall-O-cup]

On 9/25/2023 at 5:36 PM, Hank Scorpio said:

This... and let us not sleep on Kyle Bradish either. The two of them could provide quite a 1-2 punch.

Bradish is 25, Rodriguez is 23. 

Just a minor quibble here but Kyle Bradish recently turned 27.  

[mall-O-cup]

19 hours ago, Pickles said:

Yes, his career of not having a high K rate and "not missing bats."

Dude, calm down.  Take a breath.

 

Lol - loved the video!