Who should come to the majors and when? Who should be traded?

[connja]

I think if you get rid of Sandtander, Mountcastle and Mullins you take a step back next year no matter who replaces them.  That may be OK for the long term, but people should be prepared for some regression if you remove your veterans from the lineup.

[CaptainRedbeard]

Here’s another way to look at the question - what does the 2025 team look like? And work backwards from there. 

In 2025 Santander and O’Hearn will be free agents. The remaining players:

-9 with many years of control remaining (Adley, Gunnar, Holliday, Mayo, Cowser, Kjerstad, Westburg, Ortiz, Basallo).

-Mullins and Hays in their final year. It’s a safe assumption they will not be extended and hopefully the most recent draft classes of Beavers, Fabian, Bradfield, Horvath etc. will replace them in 2026+.

-Mountcastle and Urias with 2 years of control, Mateo in his final year. Mountcastle is more likely to still be worth his contract, but Urias and especially Mateo are potential non-tenders looking at increases on their ~$2-3M 2024 salaries at 31 and 30 years old in 2025, respectively. 

-Norby and Stowers as optionable bench players / depth pieces. 

That doesn’t look like an overcrowded roster to me. They can move Santander, O’Hearn, Urias and Mateo in 2024 to the extent they want to create earlier opportunity for younger players, but they won’t be factors in 2025. It will be the same story again for Mullins, Hays and Mountcastle in 2025 when looking at 2026. 

Everything revolves around what they need to do to bring in more starting pitching. They have depth to trade younger players and hold longer onto the veterans approaching free agency. Alternatively, if they add pitching in free agency, they can (and likely should) instead move some veterans before they reach free agency.

Once the Orioles pick a path for adding a starting pitcher, we’ll have a better sense for how the rest of the dominoes should fall. 

[btdart20]

2 hours ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Here’s another way to look at the question - what does the 2025 team look like? And work backwards from there. 

In 2025 Santander and O’Hearn will be free agents. The remaining players:

-9 with many years of control remaining (Adley, Gunnar, Holliday, Mayo, Cowser, Kjerstad, Westburg, Ortiz, Basallo).

-Mullins and Hays in their final year. It’s a safe assumption they will not be extended and hopefully the most recent draft classes of Beavers, Fabian, Bradfield, Horvath etc. will replace them in 2026+.

-Mountcastle and Urias with 2 years of control, Mateo in his final year. Mountcastle is more likely to still be worth his contract, but Urias and especially Mateo are potential non-tenders looking at increases on their ~$2-3M 2024 salaries at 31 and 30 years old in 2025, respectively. 

-Norby and Stowers as optionable bench players / depth pieces. 

That doesn’t look like an overcrowded roster to me. They can move Santander, O’Hearn, Urias and Mateo in 2024 to the extent they want to create earlier opportunity for younger players, but they won’t be factors in 2025. It will be the same story again for Mullins, Hays and Mountcastle in 2025 when looking at 2026. 

Everything revolves around what they need to do to bring in more starting pitching. They have depth to trade younger players and hold longer onto the veterans approaching free agency. Alternatively, if they add pitching in free agency, they can (and likely should) instead move some veterans before they reach free agency.

Once the Orioles pick a path for adding a starting pitcher, we’ll have a better sense for how the rest of the dominoes should fall. 

Agreed in general.  We have plenty of good options.  

[RZNJ]

4 hours ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Here’s another way to look at the question - what does the 2025 team look like? And work backwards from there. 

In 2025 Santander and O’Hearn will be free agents. The remaining players:

-9 with many years of control remaining (Adley, Gunnar, Holliday, Mayo, Cowser, Kjerstad, Westburg, Ortiz, Basallo).

-Mullins and Hays in their final year. It’s a safe assumption they will not be extended and hopefully the most recent draft classes of Beavers, Fabian, Bradfield, Horvath etc. will replace them in 2026+.

-Mountcastle and Urias with 2 years of control, Mateo in his final year. Mountcastle is more likely to still be worth his contract, but Urias and especially Mateo are potential non-tenders looking at increases on their ~$2-3M 2024 salaries at 31 and 30 years old in 2025, respectively. 

-Norby and Stowers as optionable bench players / depth pieces. 

That doesn’t look like an overcrowded roster to me. They can move Santander, O’Hearn, Urias and Mateo in 2024 to the extent they want to create earlier opportunity for younger players, but they won’t be factors in 2025. It will be the same story again for Mullins, Hays and Mountcastle in 2025 when looking at 2026. 

Everything revolves around what they need to do to bring in more starting pitching. They have depth to trade younger players and hold longer onto the veterans approaching free agency. Alternatively, if they add pitching in free agency, they can (and likely should) instead move some veterans before they reach free agency.

Once the Orioles pick a path for adding a starting pitcher, we’ll have a better sense for how the rest of the dominoes should fall. 

To answer your question, I think the 2025 team could look like this.

1B Basallo

2B Holliday

SS Henderson

3B Westburg

C Rutschman

LF Beavers

CF Mullins

RF Kjerstad

DH Mayo

But that’s impossible because that’s an entirely home grown team.  Just daydreaming, I guess.

Edited October 15, 2023 by RZNJ

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

To answer your question, I think the 2025 team could look like this.

1B Basallo

2B Holliday

SS Henderson

3B Westburg

C Rutschman

LF Beavers

CF Mullins

RF Kjerstad

DH Mayo

But that’s impossible because that’s an entirely home grown team.  Just daydreaming, I guess.

That's OK.  The pitching staff will not be totally homegrown.

[CaptainRedbeard]

6 hours ago, RZNJ said:

To answer your question, I think the 2025 team could look like this.

1B Basallo

2B Holliday

SS Henderson

3B Westburg

C Rutschman

LF Beavers

CF Mullins

RF Kjerstad

DH Mayo

But that’s impossible because that’s an entirely home grown team.  Just daydreaming, I guess.

With the quantity and quality of prospects the Orioles have, it’s not impossible to have a fully home grown lineup in 2025. They were already nearly there by the end of 2023. That’s a daydream 99% of the time but the Orioles are in a pretty unique position. What is nearly impossible is that EVERY prospect will pan out, but there’s enough AAA/AA top 100 prospects that some could flame out and still leave 9 homegrown starters.

The success of the team over the next ~5 years is going to depend on the overall prospect hit rate and whether they make the right choices in who to deal, if any. Which makes it essential to be providing some MLB opportunities to better evaluate some of these guys who are ready. 

[CaptainRedbeard]

Another interesting wrinkle to consider - with the number of righty infielders and lefty outfielders, what are the chances we see Westburg play part time in the OF against LHP? Certainly Norby is trending that way, but Westburg is perhaps more intriguing.

IMO Westburg’s speed was REALLY undersold in his scouting reports. He was 88th percentile in sprint speed. He played so well at 2B/3B that he’s actually an asset there defensively (contrary to all of the scouting reports prior to this year), so it wouldn’t make sense to move him full time to the OF, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he was also an asset in the OF. He played a little LF in AAA already.

[emmett16]

I think they spend $$ for one more year of  Santander.  I don’t see how they can replace his production internally.  I’m fairly confident Hays, Urias & Mateo will be moved.  I’ll be shocked if they move any prospects in the top 20.  

[RZNJ]

4 hours ago, emmett16 said:

I think they spend $$ for one more year of  Santander.  I don’t see how they can replace his production internally.  I’m fairly confident Hays, Urias & Mateo will be moved.  I’ll be shocked if they move any prospects in the top 20.  

What makes you fairly confident that Hays is moved?   I think that comes entirely down to how confident they are that Cowser can replace him this year.

[AnythingO's]

I just looked at MLB top 100 prospects and Cowser, Kjerstad, and Ortiz are still there but not Westburg who had over 200 ABs. Still have 6 in the Top 50 but almost every one is a 2024 candidate except Basallo. I think HK makes a run at ROY like Adley and Gunnar. We need the next wave to replenish the graduates.

[Aristotelian]

One thing I noticed about Mayo is he had a 125 point reverse split with a nice 1.009 OPS vs RHB last year. When he comes up, I hope they don't make the mistake of using him as a LHP only platoon bat and then try to draw any conclusions. Once he is deemed ready, he should play every day, matchups be damned. 

[ChuckS]

I tend to think more in terms of what is practical, rather than what I’d like to see happen.

The idea that there is going to some mass exodus of core players traded this off-season, is not based in reality. Maybe one guy as part of a bigger trade to get pitching. Mountcastle would be my pick. 

Santander was possibly our most valuable bat over the course of the season, and I think they like Hays defense a lot in left field.  Mullins is our center fielder for one more season, as I don’t see anyone else replacing that defense.

Mateo shouldn’t be back.

if Mountcastle and Mateo are gone that leaves room for Holliday and Mayo to break in. Beyond that, I’m not sure. We’ll see how the season unfolds 

[24fps]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

One thing I noticed about Mayo is he had a 125 point reverse split with a nice 1.009 OPS vs RHB last year. When he comes up, I hope they don't make the mistake of using him as a LHP only platoon bat and then try to draw any conclusions. Once he is deemed ready, he should play every day, matchups be damned. 

The split was much smaller in 2022 and 2021 but still favored RHP.  There is no compelling reason to ever platoon him which maybe complicates his path to the majors given the current glut of 2024 promotion candidates.

[webbrick2010]

O's caught lightning in a bottle with Hicks, would be a mistake to include him on 2024 roster, same with Frazier, and I really don't see the need for Mateo with Ortiz on the roster.

[emmett16]

5 hours ago, RZNJ said:

What makes you fairly confident that Hays is moved?   I think that comes entirely down to how confident they are that Cowser can replace him this year.

I just think he is the easiest production to replace.  That + his extremely decreased foot speed.  He played a solid LF this year, not confident he can replicate that.  Santander is a switch hitter and can play an adequate 1B.  Makes him much easier to fit into lineup.  I have to imagine either one of Hays/Santander goes and I think Hays is odd man out.  My 2 cents.