Santander Speculation

[RZNJ]

18 minutes ago, wildcard said:

You have got to be kidding.  The O's just won 101 games and almost no players of consequence are leaving.    They go into next year with 2 #1 starters potentially plus they get Means back.  They come out of 2023 with top 5 AL offenses and pitching with the opportunity to be better in each in 2024.

Not going for the World Series? BS!   They will not do what many want in signing big FAs but that is not how Elias improves.   He has build a Analytics and Player Development system that evaluates all the players in baseball and goes after the ones that his system can improve.

So while we and many other are looking at who the big names on the FA and Trade market  are Elias and company is planning to add what they need based on acquiring players they can improve.  

The O's big name in 2024 will be Gunnar, Adley, Bradish, GRod, Means.   The rookie for the most part will add depth and fill in when injuries or non performance hit.  2B and 3B are the best places for young player to get playing time.  Maybe a 4th starter.

I am sure Elias is planning to go deeper in the playoff next year and have a better shot at winning the World Series in 2024.

I don’t think, nor do I think Elias does, that a WS run depends on whether Santander returns or not.   I think he’ll move with one eye on 2024 and the other eye on the future beyond 2024.  I don’t see the total emphasis on 2024 the way you seem to.   

[NCRaven]

17 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He’s fine..he’s productive and he’s also replaceable.

Top 30% or better in xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, Average Exit Velo, Barrel %, and Hard Hit %.  That doesn't grow on trees.  He has warts too.  But that skillset is not easily or cheaply replaced.  I think that Basallo will be his replacement (maybe Mayo-but, I'd still rather see him in right field if he doesn't stick at 3B), but not this off season.  Mountcastle is young, has lots of team control, and hits the ball very hard.  If another team is willing to pay an appropriate price for that, go for it.  But, I don't think he's easily replaced right now.

[Idaho_OriolesFan]

Tha'ts how I've felt about it for the last few months... Santander is an awesome player and exciting when he's fire. BUT I just don't see Baltimore as his take-off team. I think he (someday) finds a home crowd that exalts him to local celebrity status and he becomes the face of the team... then he takes off.

Edited October 30, 2023 by Idaho_OriolesFan

[wildcard]

24 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I don’t think, nor do I think Elias does, that a WS run depends on whether Santander returns or not.   I think he’ll move with one eye on 2024 and the other eye on the future beyond 2024.  I don’t see the total emphasis on 2024 the way you seem to.   

Yes sure.  But don't try to tell me that Elias is not going to try the WS in 2024.

[CP0861]

41 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

I think Elias is capable of thinking long and short-term at the same time.  You can subtract and add players at the same time to enhance both outcomes.  And, the level of Mountcastle dismissiveness on this board continues to amaze me.

Are they dismissive? Or realistic?

Is it simply the ability to hit 20+ home runs that some fans seem infatuated with? Is that the "hard to replace" part?

He's another streaky .250 hitter with some pop. And yes, I know he hit .270 last year (only because of his July/August tear), but offensively he's still absolutely mediocre. In their positions, they're absolutely replaceable. If you can get anything of need in return for the guys closest to FA, you move them.

Do you want Mountcastle extended? What would you pay him?

In my perfect world, Mountcastle and Santander both get traded.

Edited October 30, 2023 by CP0861

[btdart20]

There are 5 position players I'd lock into 2024 and hold the rest with an open hand:

C - Adley, McCann

SS/3B - Gunnar

OF - Cedric, Kjerstad

Westburg is in the next tier because he's nearly paid his RIP tax.

That leaves Full-timers (Santander/Hays), Platoonies (Mountcastle/O'Hearn), and Opportunistics (Mateo/Urias) hanging with the 2024 MiLB options dependent on the whims of Mr. Market.  

That said, I don't think Elias will completely overhaul the roster quite like that.  

[btdart20]

17 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

Top 30% or better in xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, Average Exit Velo, Barrel %, and Hard Hit %.  That doesn't grow on trees.  He has warts too.  But that skillset is not easily or cheaply replaced.  I think that Basallo will be his replacement (maybe Mayo-but, I'd still rather see him in right field if he doesn't stick at 3B), but not this off season.  Mountcastle is young, has lots of team control, and hits the ball very hard.  If another team is willing to pay an appropriate price for that, go for it.  But, I don't think he's easily replaced right now.

I'm at the point where I just don't trust Mounty to take the next step.  He morphed into a LHP Assassin after coming back from vertigo.  But in 15 more PAs (usually in a catbird seat in the order) he only had 8 more RBI's than Adam Frazier.  I do think he's impacted by RF, but he's had two years to figure it out.  I wrote off last year as "unlucky" (and it was).  But is there more in the tank that's not splits induced?  Not many playoff-caliber teams build their MOO around platooning 1B.

To be clear, I'm fine with him because he's a strong internal option.  

[Can_of_corn]

17 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

Top 30% or better in xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, Average Exit Velo, Barrel %, and Hard Hit %.  That doesn't grow on trees.  He has warts too.  But that skillset is not easily or cheaply replaced.  I think that Basallo will be his replacement (maybe Mayo-but, I'd still rather see him in right field if he doesn't stick at 3B), but not this off season.  Mountcastle is young, has lots of team control, and hits the ball very hard.  If another team is willing to pay an appropriate price for that, go for it.  But, I don't think he's easily replaced right now.

 

Just now, CP0861 said:

Are they dismissive? Or realistic?

He's another streaky .250 hitter. Those guys aren't irreplaceable....especially at 1b.

xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, AEV, Barrel%, Hard hit%.

Batting average.

Wonder which argument carries more weight with me?

[btdart20]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

 

xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, AEV, Barrel%, Hard hit%.

Batting average.

Wonder which argument carries more weight with me?

Peeking beyond the snark:  When does the delta between x-stats and real stats impact the bell curve?  

 

[Sports Guy]

19 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

Top 30% or better in xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, Average Exit Velo, Barrel %, and Hard Hit %.  That doesn't grow on trees.  He has warts too.  But that skillset is not easily or cheaply replaced.  I think that Basallo will be his replacement (maybe Mayo-but, I'd still rather see him in right field if he doesn't stick at 3B), but not this off season.  Mountcastle is young, has lots of team control, and hits the ball very hard.  If another team is willing to pay an appropriate price for that, go for it.  But, I don't think he's easily replaced right now.

As I said, he’s productive and I do feel people were selling his offense short because of some of those numbers you pointed out here and I felt he was better offensive player than his traditional stats showed.

But he has yet to post even a 1.8 fWAR. He doesn’t walk much and his OBP isn’t that great.

I actually  think he could be a guy that pops and has an 825-850 OPS once or twice in his career.  
 

But hes not difficult to replace. Of players with at least 200 PA, there were 148 players in the majors with a higher wAR than Mountcastle.  12 others had the same WAR and 11 others were within .2 WAR. That’s 171 offensive players.  That’s almost 6 per team on average, which is about 45% of your offensive roster.

He is like Hays and Santander. He’s a good player. He has value. He produces but he’s not some unreal talent that we will struggle to replace.

If Elias and his team are as good as we think they are, they will be producing 1.5-2 WAR guys with relative regularity.

He is not a guy you want to pay arb 2 or especially arb 3 numbers. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, btdart20 said:

Peeking beyond the snark:  When does the delta between x-stats and real stats impact the bell curve?  

 

When he gets expensive or when other options force themselves to the front.

[RZNJ]

11 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Yes sure.  But don't try to tell me that Elias is not going to try the WS in 2024.

I don’t think that’s the mindset.  That suggests an “all in” approach.  I think he’s trying to put together a team that has a good chance to have a winning record and make the playoffs and if things break right make a deep run in the playoffs.   If he was trying to win a WS in 2024 the way you are suggesting then I would expect some major trades involving the future for the present.   Something more significant than Hernaiz for Irvin.

[wildcard]

6 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I don’t think that’s the mindset.  That suggests an “all in” approach.  I think he’s trying to put together a team that has a good chance to have a winning record and make the playoffs and if things break right make a deep run in the playoffs.   If he was trying to win a WS in 2024 the way you are suggesting then I would expect some major trades involving the future for the present.   Something more significant than Hernaiz for Irvin.

Trading the future for the present doesn't sound like Elias.   That does not mean he isn't trying to win the world series in 2024.  He just does it differently then you seem to expect.

[spiritof66]

4 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Should probably move both … Hays is a product of the other management team. He’s a low OBP guy and probably isn’t getting any better than this year. So his value is in the 2 years of remaining control. Mullins is also a free agent in the same period but was still a 2.8 war player despite his struggle with injuries and streaky traits. Plus I don’t think we currently don’t have his replacement at or nearly ready for CF. If Kjerstad and Cowser can handle LF and RF defensively it’s time to move+on from Santander and Hays. 

I'm concerned about the OF defense if Hayes is traded and Mullins doesn't hit enough to be the full-time CF. 

[NCRaven]

20 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

As I said, he’s productive and I do feel people were selling his offense short because of some of those numbers you pointed out here and I felt he was better offensive player than his traditional stats showed.

But he has yet to post even a 1.8 fWAR. He doesn’t walk much and his OBP isn’t that great.

I actually  think he could be a guy that pops and has an 825-850 OPS once or twice in his career.  
 

But hes not difficult to replace. Of players with at least 200 PA, there were 148 players in the majors with a higher wAR than Mountcastle.  12 others had the same WAR and 11 others were within .2 WAR. That’s 171 offensive players.  That’s almost 6 per team on average, which is about 45% of your offensive roster.

He is like Hays and Santander. He’s a good player. He has value. He produces but he’s not some unreal talent that we will struggle to replace.

If Elias and his team are as good as we think they are, they will be producing 1.5-2 WAR guys with relative regularity.

He is not a guy you want to pay arb 2 or especially arb 3 numbers. 

I think this is well reasoned.  I wouldn't extend Mountcastle, I'm just not anxious to casually dispose of him now.  I don't think his arb years would be particularly troublesome, but if you can make a good trade before he becomes too expense, I wouldn't be opposed.  I suppose that you could move Santander to 1B until Mayo or Basallo or Player X is ready, but Santander might actually be a better trade candidate (from our perspective) due to age and lack of more than 1 year of control.  I'm not convinced that O'Hearn will continue to produce at his peak Baltimore level vs. routine KC level.

So, all in all, I think one more year of Mountcastle is the way to go.