Cease vs everyone else

[ThisIsBirdland]

One of my biggest concerns with Cease is how deep he can pitch into games. Last year it looks like only completed at least 6 innings in 14 out of 33 starts. Even in his Cy Young runner up season, he only got through the 6th inning in 16 out of 32 starts. Just looking at a quick comparison last season, Bradish completed at least 6 innings in 20 out of 30 starts, including the 2 inning pre-playoff tune-up in September. Valdez was pretty awesome here last year (23/31); Luzardo wasn't amazing but was better than Cease (17/32), 

@Chicago White Sox any thoughts here? Is this a function of being a strikeout reliant pitcher and running up high pitch counts? Maybe there's been so little faith in the defense he works outside the plate too much to avoid contact? I believe in missing bats and all but we have a manager with a pretty quick trigger finger and we saw how worn down the bullpen got last August; I just think its a potential limitation I haven't seen much discussion on. 

[Malike]

4 minutes ago, ThisIsBirdland said:

One of my biggest concerns with Cease is how deep he can pitch into games. Last year it looks like only completed at least 6 innings in 14 out of 33 starts. Even in his Cy Young runner up season, he only got through the 6th inning in 16 out of 32 starts. Just looking at a quick comparison last season, Bradish completed at least 6 innings in 20 out of 30 starts, including the 2 inning pre-playoff tune-up in September. Valdez was pretty awesome here last year (23/31); Luzardo wasn't amazing but was better than Cease (17/32), 

@Chicago White Sox any thoughts here? Is this a function of being a strikeout reliant pitcher and running up high pitch counts? Maybe there's been so little faith in the defense he works outside the plate too much to avoid contact? I believe in missing bats and all but we have a manager with a pretty quick trigger finger and we saw how worn down the bullpen got last August; I just think its a potential limitation I haven't seen much discussion on. 

Well, his strikeouts are declining each year so maybe he'll get into the 6th more often in 2024. His walk rate of 4.0 probably doesn't help much either nor his 8.7 H9.

Edited January 5 by Malike

[ThisIsBirdland]

https://nypost.com/2024/01/04/sports/rangers-still-in-play-for-free-agents-jordan-montgomery-josh-hader/

Kind of a non-update update from Heyman (please don't shoot the messenger) but his comment on Cease:

The prospect-heavy Orioles make the most sense for Dylan Cease, but the sides were still apart in talks.

[Malike]

11 hours ago, emmett16 said:

Most likely to get a rise out of people on a completely different message board.  

Some of our members are going to be Grand Council Members on the Sox board before Cease gets traded lol.

[Just Regular]

Cease is pitch inefficient.     He's thrown 4000 balls across 2020-2023, a 10% lead on every other MLB Arm except Kyle Gibson.

Pitches Thrown those 4 years, he's a strong 2nd to Gerrit Cole, but just 16th in Innings Pitched.

 

[Sports Guy]

The prospect-heavy Orioles make the most sense for Dylan Cease, but the sides were still apart in talks.

 

 

 

[Moose Milligan]

Of course they’re far apart. 
But it’s Heyman. 

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, ThisIsBirdland said:

One of my biggest concerns with Cease is how deep he can pitch into games. Last year it looks like only completed at least 6 innings in 14 out of 33 starts. Even in his Cy Young runner up season, he only got through the 6th inning in 16 out of 32 starts. Just looking at a quick comparison last season, Bradish completed at least 6 innings in 20 out of 30 starts, including the 2 inning pre-playoff tune-up in September. Valdez was pretty awesome here last year (23/31); Luzardo wasn't amazing but was better than Cease (17/32), 

@Chicago White Sox any thoughts here? Is this a function of being a strikeout reliant pitcher and running up high pitch counts? Maybe there's been so little faith in the defense he works outside the plate too much to avoid contact? I believe in missing bats and all but we have a manager with a pretty quick trigger finger and we saw how worn down the bullpen got last August; I just think its a potential limitation I haven't seen much discussion on. 

Yes, this is a downside to Cease.  On the other hand, he’s been very durable in terms of making his starts.   So, he doesn’t provide that much relief for his team’s bullpen, but he keeps a team from having to throw its 6th/7th starter out there on occasion.  It’s an okay tradeoff.  But, it’s one of the reasons you don’t value him as an “ace” in trade talks.   

[DrinkinWithFermi]

16 minutes ago, ThisIsBirdland said:

https://nypost.com/2024/01/04/sports/rangers-still-in-play-for-free-agents-jordan-montgomery-josh-hader/

Kind of a non-update update from Heyman (please don't shoot the messenger) but his comment on Cease:

The prospect-heavy Orioles make the most sense for Dylan Cease, but the sides were still apart in talks.

Just offer Miami something like Hays, Ortiz, Beavers, and an arm (or two) from outside of our top ~5-7 pitching prospects that they like for Trevor Rogers and bank on our braintrust fixing him instead of overpaying for the privilege of trying to fix Dylan Cease if Getz is still demanding so much that they are still "far apart" at this point.

The Marlins are probably a better fit for us than CWS anyway since they want to contend in 2024 and would therefore potentially be open to splitting their return between win now and future pieces, which would in turn allow us to open up some playing time for the MLB ready guys like Kjerstad, Cowser, and Stowers.

[OriolesMagic83]

7 hours ago, Malike said:

Some of our members are going to be Grand Council Members on the Sox board before Cease gets traded lol.

Sports Guy will have the most board posts and Frobby will be a moderator.

[Roll Tide]

 

[Moose Milligan]

Ready to be disappointed!  Bring it on!

[Sports Guy]

The part that mattered in the Rosenthal article:

 

The White Sox, trying to inject additional talent, seem virtually certain to move Cease, their most valuable trade commodity. They are staying open-minded on the composition of the return and are not necessarily inclined to favor a team that could include major-league-ready pitching, sources said.

[Sports Guy]

The one thing that I do feel is wrong about this trade talk is that the Os are in the best position because our system is so strong.

That isn’t necessarily true when the top 3 players are likely (and rightfully so) off the board. And if Cowser and Kjerstad are off the board, then it’s really not true.

 

[Aristotelian]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The one thing that I do feel is wrong about this trade talk is that the Os are in the best position because our system is so strong.

That isn’t necessarily true when the top 3 players are likely (and rightfully so) off the board. And if Cowser and Kjerstad are off the board, then it’s really not true.

 

Yes, both sides have to have the willingness to deal in addition to the assets. It's true in the sense we have the most expendable assets in guys like Norby and Ortiz. Question is whether CWS wants those guys. But if the Sox price is Kjerstad should we be doing that deal? Very tempting but I am inclined to pass.