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Cease vs everyone else

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Tony-OH
Tony-OH

I'm just catching up on this but we know how Elias and company share information outside of their inner circle. They don't. We've heard from players many times say they don't hear from the Orioles abo

btdart20
btdart20
Spy Fox
Spy Fox

@Sports Guyis so prolific, he's the #3 poster on the Soxtalk thread despite joining on page 102 of 149. He's also the #1 poster in this thread, so potentially on track to be the #1 poster on both team

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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58 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

What do you put the odds of Povich having the career Cease has had?

I think it's pretty long.

Thats why he’s being proposed as the third piece of the trade, not the feature piece.  But his ceiling is pretty good.  

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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15 minutes ago, TommyPickles said:

Not sure if this has been mentioned in the 200 pages of Dylan Cease chat, but this was MLB Network's proposed Cease trade yesterday:

 

Baltimore gets: Cease

 

Chicago gets: Kjerstad, Ortiz, Armbruester

That’s one I might reluctantly do.  Armbruester might have a higher floor than Povich, but I think his ceiling is much lower.  

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Thats why he’s being proposed as the third piece of the trade, not the feature piece.  But his ceiling is pretty good.  

Right, but I was talking to someone who didn't want to give six years of Povich for only two years of Cease.

I think you are overrating Povich if you are planning on getting six years out of him.

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ChicagoTerp Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

ChicagoTerp

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48 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

 

I don't really agree with Rosenthal here. I see a pretty even balance of supply and demand for SP this offseason. A lot of the demand for SP has been satisfied (Yamamoto, ERod, Gray, Sale... apparently). Meanwhile there remains Snell, Imanaga, Montgomery, and even Stroman out there on the FA market in addition to potential trades for Cease, Bieber, Burnes, Luzardo (and other Marlins), etc.

Known buyers at the moment include BAL, NYY, BOS, SF, CHC, NYM (maybe after getting Manaea) CIN (maybe?), LAA (maybe?).

To me that sounds like a pretty even balance of supply/demand. But I guess we'll see.

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TommyPickles Major Leaguer

TommyPickles

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9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

That’s one I might reluctantly do.  Armbruester might have a higher floor than Povich, but I think his ceiling is much lower.  

Yeah, I feel the same way.

Tough call, but I'd like the O's to take a legitimate crack at winning it all in the Mullins/Santander/Means/Hays era. The price for pitchers is high, but I think this deal makes them (more) legitimate World Series contenders in 2024 and 2025.

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24fps Hangout Grand Counsel

24fps

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32 minutes ago, TommyPickles said:

Not sure if this has been mentioned in the 200 pages of Dylan Cease chat, but this was MLB Network's proposed Cease trade yesterday:

 

Baltimore gets: Cease

 

Chicago gets: Kjerstad, Ortiz, Armbruester

Yes, if somewhat reluctantly, but starting pitching is expensive and this would be a real-world trade offer.  And if Cease is the last one standing out of Valdez, Luzardo and Cease I would certainly make the deal. 

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wildbillhiccup Hangout Grand Counsel

wildbillhiccup

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26 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Cease was in the majors at 23.

Povich's walk numbers increased last season.

You might want to cut down on the Flavoraid.

And your point is? I'm sure at 23 there was a much  greater expectation that Cease might be able to improve his walk rate than there is for him now at 28.  You might not believe in Povich, but it seems a bit ridiculous to say that there isn't a wider variable of outcomes for him based on his age, the lack of MLB data have for him, etc. I'm also not sure why you continue to try and compare a 23 year old pitcher with no MLB experience to a 28 year old veteran pitcher with five years of MLB experience. 

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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45 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I respect that, but I think the deal that would get it done is Westburg, Cowser/Kjerstad, and McDermott/Povich. They could kick in Kopech but that would be really complicated. 

It may get it done but it’s more value than what we should be trading.

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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5 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

And your point is? I'm sure at 23 there was a much  greater expectation that Cease might be able to improve his walk rate than there is for him now at 28.  You might not believe in Povich, but it seems a bit ridiculous to say that there isn't a wider variable of outcomes for him based on his age, the lack of MLB data have for him, etc. I'm also not sure why you continue to try and compare a 23 year old pitcher with no MLB experience to a 28 year old veteran pitcher with five years of MLB experience. 

Because you are worried that the lack of a 23 year old minor league with command issues will be too much to overcome after Cease leaves in two years.

I just find it amusing that you latch on to both Cease's walk rate and a pitching prospect with a similar flaw.

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wildbillhiccup Hangout Grand Counsel

wildbillhiccup

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2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Because you are worried that the lack of a 23 year old minor league with command issues will be too much to overcome after Cease leaves in two years.

I just find it amusing that you latch on to both Cease's walk rate and a pitching prospect with a similar flaw.

I'm not latching onto anything. You're the one who keeps trying to compare apples to oranges. Not wanting to trade Povich has more to do with prospects being a bit of a numbers game, since they all don't work out, and recognizing that the odds are already stacked against us in the pitching department because of our lack of depth.  The reality is that we need some of these pitchers to hit.

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emmett16 Hangout Grand Counsel

emmett16

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51 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Because you are worried that the lack of a 23 year old minor league with command issues will be too much to overcome after Cease leaves in two years.

I just find it amusing that you latch on to both Cease's walk rate and a pitching prospect with a similar flaw.

It’s interesting comparing the two.  They are quite similar (stat profile).  Cease logged 354ip in minors 4.2 bb/9 11.4k/9.  Cease came out of HS while Povich went to college and they both made it to AAA at same ages. In 250ip Povich is 3.8bb/9 12.1 k/9.  I’ll put my money long term on the 6’3” lefty who has a full arsenal and doesn’t rely on one pitch for success.  Cease gave up slightly fewer h/9  &  .7 fewer hr/9 (Fairly significant and Povich’s big weak spot).  WHIPs almost identical.  

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SoxFan3344 AA

SoxFan3344

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If Cease is an Oriole then either Kjerstad, Mayo, or Basallo is a White Sox, and yes I know how this entire board thinks Basallo and Mayo are destined for the HOF already, imagine how Getz feels about those two? I think in the end a deal gets done but it’s gonna hurt a little bit 

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