Do the 2024 Orioles need to score more runs than the team did in 2023?

[Jim'sKid26]

For context, the 2023 Os scored 807 runs which was 7th in all of MLB. They averaged 4.98 R/game. Only the Braves (947 ), Dodgers (906 ),Rangers (881 ), Rays ( 860), Astros ( 827) and Cubs ( 819) had more runs. The O's had the third most 2Bs (309), Rangers had 326 and Boston (go figure) had 339. O's were below average in HRs at 183 (league average 196) with ATL leading the MLB at 307. The Dodgers were second at 249!

So do the O's need to score more runs in 2024? After all they were a 101 win team scoring 807. Do they need more power? What should be the offensive strategy moving forward knowing with what you know about the likely makeup of the team? Is the oft stated adage that the O's need a MOO hitter still true? Is that player an external addition or someone from the farm?

There has been much on this board in recent days about pitching. Rightfully so IMHO. But does the team need another hitter? What is the thought process?

Edited December 3, 2023 by Jim'sKid26
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[clapdiddy]

Yes.

[RZNJ]

I think we’ll be fine with internal options.  Cowser, Kjerstad, Westburg, Holliday, Mayo, Ortiz, and Norby are all either ready or really close.   Combined with the incumbents we should be able to improve.

 

[Frobby]

The O’s were 7th in scoring runs and 7th in fewest runs allowed.  Their OPS+ was 107, their ERA+ was 106.   They were about equally above average on both sides of the ball.  We know that their Pythagorean record of 94-68 was below their actual record of 101-61.  We also know that their expected runs scored was lower than actual runs scored, because their RISP hitting was extraordinarily (and probably unsustainably) good.   

Bottom line, this team has many ways it can improve.  It doesn’t “need” to improve in any particular way.   I tend to think that the existing team will hit better in 2024 than 2023 just through maturation of current major leaguers and introduction of good players who were in AAA.
 

[Jim'sKid26]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

The O’s were 7th in scoring runs and 7th in fewest runs allowed.  Their OPS+ was 107, their ERA+ was 106.   They were about equally above average on both sides of the ball.  We know that their Pythagorean record of 94-68 was below their actual record of 101-61.  We also know that their expected runs scored was lower than actual runs scored, because their RISP hitting was extraordinarily (and probably unsustainably) good.   

Bottom line, this team has many ways it can improve.  It doesn’t “need” to improve in any particular way.   I tend to think that the existing team will hit better in 2024 than 2023 just through maturation of current major leaguers and introduction of good players who were in AAA.
 

Do you think the 2024 team, as it is likely to be configured, is powerful enough to win a championship?

[Frobby]

Just now, Jim'sKid26 said:

Do you think the 2024 team, as it is likely to be configured, is powerful enough to win a championship?

I’m not that hung up on power.  The 2015 Royals hit 139 homers.  

I think both Gunnar and Adley will hit more homers this year.  Westburg has more pop than he showed last year.  If Kjerstad gets playing time he’ll hit his share of bombs.  
 

[wildcard]

I think the team the O's begin the season with will not be the team they end the season with.   Holliday, Mayo and Kjerstad may not be with the team on OD but during the season they will join the team and make it more offensive.

These 3 guys are hitters.

Edited December 3, 2023 by wildcard

[Jim'sKid26]

16 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m not that hung up on power.  The 2015 Royals hit 139 homers.  

I think both Gunnar and Adley will hit more homers this year.  Westburg has more pop than he showed last year.  If Kjerstad gets playing time he’ll hit his share of bombs.  
 

I ask this question because we all are gnashing our teeth about the playoffs and the O's futility in 2023. An interesting thought is that teams in the Playoffs are much more reliant on the HR to score runs than in the regular season. 

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/2023-mlb-playoffs-home-runs-are-leading-slugging-teams-to-victory-in-the-postseason-not-small-ball-and-bunts/

This article tries to spell this out. For what it's worth, homers and the ability to out homer your opponent in the playoffs is a recipe for success. Ironically, the Rangers-Os series notwithstanding.

If you look at the playoffs in 2023 around 53% of runs scored were from HRs, compared to ~41% in the regular season. I'm not sure having a big bopper in the MOO for the O's would have made a difference in 2023, but I gotta ask the question.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

I ask this question because we all are gnashing our teeth about the playoffs and the O's futility in 2023. An interesting thought is that teams in the Playoffs are much more reliant on the HR to score runs than in the regular season. 

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/2023-mlb-playoffs-home-runs-are-leading-slugging-teams-to-victory-in-the-postseason-not-small-ball-and-bunts/

This article tries to spell this out. For what it's worth, homers and the ability to out homer your opponent in the playoffs is a recipe for success. Ironically, the Rangers-Os series notwithstanding.

If you look at the playoffs in 2023 around 53% of runs scored were from HRs, compared to ~41% in the regular season. I'm not sure having a big bopper in the MOO for the O's would have made a difference in 2023, but I gotta ask the question.

I never get too caught up in what happens in a single postseason or series.  The 2012 team was 2nd in homers, the 2014 and 2016 teams were 1st - what did it get them?

[interloper]

I say yes because we won a lot of late/close games and that's hard to count on happening again, especially without Felix being a cheat code in extra inning away games and making the free runner basically irrelevant.

[maybenxtyr]

The biggest concern about runs scored from 2023 will be the hitting with runners in scoring position. I've seen several people here call that out as something that's not guaranteed to be repeated.

 

I do believe that some of the returning players, and potential additions from the MiL's can help supplement the HR numbers. 

 

Anytime the front office can improve the team, they should. I just don't know of anyone that profiles as a HR hitter that's legitimately available.

[e16bball]

45 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

The biggest concern about runs scored from 2023 will be the hitting with runners in scoring position. I've seen several people here call that out as something that's not guaranteed to be repeated.

Yeah, this is the problem. 

They were 4th in the AL in runs, but they were 8th in wRC+. That gulf is (largely) explained by their BA with RISP, which ranked 1st in all of MLB and (along with TB) was way ahead of anyone else.

If they finish 4th in the AL in runs again, that’s probably just fine — especially given that OPACY is no longer a hitter’s park. But the likelihood is, unless they repeat that elite clutch/timely hitting performance, they’re going to need to improve the overall offense a bit to reach that status again. Hopefully the kids are ready to do that.

[E-D-D-I-E]

One gaping hole and it showed in the playoffs, was the lack of a masher vs Left handed pitching. It was that way all year. As good as Hays is against lefties, he can't make up enough of the punch. I believe they need a right-handed hitting outfielder that mashes lefties. The majority of the players that are "the future" for our org are lefties as well. Cowser/Kjerstad/Holliday/Beavers/Basallo. Obviously Mayo can help but I expect him to make an appearance in 2025.

Jorge Solar fits this need.(Example) 

[Moose Milligan]

Allow less runs. 

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Allow less runs. 

Allow fewer runs.