Realistic Free Agent #3 Pitchers

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Do you think none of them are?   How are you defining a no. 3 starter?  For our purposes, I’d say anyone we’d expect to slot ahead of Means and Kremer.

Stroman is probably the only one I would expect to be a mid rotation type guy. There are names that could do it but I don’t think you should expect it.

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Stroman is probably the only one I would expect to be a mid rotation type guy. There are names that could do it but I don’t think you should expect it.

Stroman to me is our best FA target.  

[HakunaSakata]

11 hours ago, ScGO's said:

I think it might be likely that this is the route Elias goes, especially if he can't find a trade for a pitcher.  The Kimbrel signing for $13 Million is pretty telling on what Elias will probably spend on a Free Agent #3 Pitcher. It will be an arm that he feels he can sign for 1-2 years for 10 to 18 Million a year

These are my best guesses as to who he's been on the phone with and what it might take to bring them to Baltimore. This also doesn't mean I want to sign any of these guy in particular (heck Jack Flaherty's on the list). For these prices, who is worth it in Elias' eyes and budget?

Marcus Stroman - 2 Year 36 Million - 

Hyun Jin Ryu - 1 Year 10 Million -

Michael Wacha - 2 Year 32 Million -

Mike Clevinger - 2 Year 28 Million -

Lucas Giolito - 1 Year 18 Million - 

Jack Flaherty - 1 Year 12 Million  - 

Martin Perez - 1 Year 11 Million - 

Cory Kluber - 1 Year 8 Million -  

James Paxton - 1 year 9 Million -

Michael Lorenzen - 2 year 20 Million - 

Frankie Montas - 1 Year 12 Million - 

My thoughts no each SP are best presented in emoji form. For context, the scale is indiferrence face to puking face. 

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Stroman to me is our best FA target.  

They won’t pay the AAV over multiple years imo.

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

My thoughts no each SP are best presented in emoji form. For context, the scale is indiferrence face to puking face. 

What kind of emoji does Dylan Cease get?

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

They won’t pay the AAV over multiple years imo.

I’d pay the projected 2/$36 mm for him.  I’m skeptical he can be signed for that.   

[sportsfan8703]

Giolito and Stroman are the only two that could be good bets to be better than Wells/Irvin/Hall. I just don’t see that being enough for Elias to beat the table over and ask JA to voluntarily give up $20 million out of his pockets. 

I don’t think Elias wants to risk a $20 million blowup when he wants to get the young guys extended. I don’t think he takes a risk and begs for these guys. I think he holds off for extension money, tries to trade for Burnes or Cease, then uses his pound table moment at the deadline if necessary. 

[RZNJ]

The O’s aren’t paying Stroman or any other multi year FA pitcher.   It’s a trade or bust.   Elias also isn’t giving up top prospects for a one year rental.  It’s either Cease or a surprise or no starter.

[Warehouse]

James Paxton is the most interesting of these options for me, especially at that projected price.  xERA and xFIP both below 4 last year.  His 2024 Steamer ERA projection is the best on the list.  He had an ERA under 3 in the first half of 2023 before falling apart in the second half with an ERA of nearly 7.  His fastball was hit hard but velocity was decent and he has good breaking stuff.  
 

He expects to be a lot better next year another year removed from TJ surgery.  The Wall and having a real third baseman would help.  He comes with a lot of risk but also enough upside where if things break right, he could be a playoff starter.

 

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’d pay the projected 2/$36 mm for him.  I’m skeptical he can be signed for that.   

Agreed on both but even if he can be had for that, the Os aren’t doing it.

[wildcard]

 Giolito -  MLBTR  2/44,  Fangraphs  4/60

Stroman - MLBTR  2/44,   Fangraphs  3/66

Wacha -  MLBTR  3/36,    Fangraphs.  3/33

Clevinger - MLBTR 2/26

Lorenzen - MLBTR 2/22

Manaea -  MLBTR 2/22, Fangraphs. 2/20

Montas -  MLBTR 1/15

Severino - MLBTR. 1/14, Fangraphs 1/10

Paxton -  Fangraphs 1/10

Wood -  Fangraphs 2/16

[interloper]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

 Giolito -  MLBTR  2/44,  Fangraphs  4/60

Stroman - MLBTR  2/44,   Fangraphs  3/66

Wacha -  MLBTR  3/36,    Fangraphs.  3/33

Clevinger - MLBTR 2/26

Lorenzen - MLBTR 2/22

Manaea -  MLBTR 2/22, Fangraphs. 2/20

Montas -  MLBTR 1/15

Severino - MLBTR. 1/14, Fangraphs 1/10

Paxton -  Fangraphs 1/10

Wood -  Fangraphs 2/16

Severino signed with the Mets for 1/$13.

I think Fangraphs is way off on Giolito getting 4 years. I think he might even get 1 year, that's how bad he was the last 2 years. I think the teams  who have the cash and lack of risk concern that would go to 4 years for him have better options to throw cash around. 

Clevinger is mildly interesting, but the injury risk is too much. Same with Montas. 

These options mostly suck, in other words. Lol. 

Edited December 15, 2023 by interloper

[NCRaven]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I’d pay the projected 2/$36 mm for him.  I’m skeptical he can be signed for that.   

Give him the Ohtani/Davis Special.  2/$36 paid out $2mil in 2024 and 2025, then $1mil a year for the next 32 years.

[CaptainRedbeard]

Stroman is obviously the best name on this list, but 1 year deals for Giolito or Montas would be very interesting. Everybody else is pretty uninspiring.

The Orioles are probably a fairly appealing destination for 1 yr deals now, with the wall, good reputation for maximizing pitchers in recent years, and a competitive team. 

Really the Orioles should be in on these types of deals in addition to the trade market. Except for Burnes and to a lesser degree Bieber, anybody they trade for is going to have a pretty manageable 2024 salary. I’d rather they allocate $ to another higher quality RP than a 1-yr SP lottery ticket, but it would also work to do that and convert both Hall and Wells to full time RP. 

[HakunaSakata]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

What kind of emoji does Dylan Cease get?

If the price is right...