Framber Valdez vs everyone else

[HakunaSakata]

3 hours ago, RZNJ said:

According to Baseball Savant, Valdez avg fastball velocity was 95.3 in 2023.  Corbin Burnes was 95.3.  Dylan Cease was 95.6.   Now, what were you saying about him not throwing hard?

Statcast data for Verlander only goes back to 2015 when his fastball, at age 32 averaged 93.4.   His highest fastball average in that time was 95.3!  In 2017.  Scherzers highest average velocity in any year dating back to 2015 was in 2016 when he averaged 95.0.  Now, what were you saying about Verlander and Scherzer throwing “considerably” harder?

 

Throwing 94 mph eight years ago was completely different than in 2023. Pitchers are bigger and stronger now and the average fastball velocity has increased. So I don't think trying to compare a 32 year old Verlander in 2015  to a 30 year old Valdez in 2023 works. In this era Valdez probably has a league average fastball in terms of speed.

I also find Valdez's velocity increases over the last two years a bit curious because it seems somewhat out of ordinary for a pitcher to add 3 MPH to his fastball in his year 29 and 30 seasons. If he's achieving those gains legally and can continue that trend then maybe he he'll have more career success / longevity then I'm giving him credit for. 

As for the other pitchers, yes Cease only averaged 96 mph on his fastball last season, but he's consistently averaged 97 / 98 every other season. I think you'd be hard pressed to find a single who person who thinks Valdez throws harder or has a better fastball than Cease.  

 

[HakunaSakata]

3 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

If a trade for Valdez starts w/ Mayo and an identical package w/ Cowser instead of Mayo gets you Cease, which one do you want?  Mayo would make sense for Houston as they are probably looking to replace Bregman as he is a free agent after 2024. 

I'd 100% rather trade for Cease and keep Mayo. 

[Too Tall]

I like Valdez over Cease but Mayo over Cowser. So, Cease and desist. 

[OriolesMagic83]

1 minute ago, HakunaSakata said:

I'd 100% rather trade for Cease and keep Mayo. 

That's where I'm at too.  I'm trying to see things from the other side.  Would be nice if we had a Houston fan to give his opinion.  Seems like Houston is set a 2b/ss, Altuve/Pena.  

[HakunaSakata]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’d worry about this if we were signing a guy for 4-6 years.  I wouldn’t worry about with in a trade for a guy with two years of service time remaining.  

I get that, but the other trade candidates are both younger AND probably cheaper. If that's the case then the combination of the two would definitely lead me to prefer Burnes or Cease over Valdez. If we have to give up comparable trade packages then I think it becomes more of a grey area. 

[RZNJ]

5 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

Throwing 94 mph eight years ago was completely different than in 2023. Pitchers are bigger and stronger now and the average fastball velocity has increased. So I don't think trying to compare a 32 year old Verlander in 2015  to a 30 year old Valdez in 2023 works. In this era Valdez probably has a league average fastball in terms of speed.

I also find Valdez's velocity increases over the last two years a bit curious because it seems somewhat out of ordinary for a pitcher to add 3 MPH to his fastball in his year 29 and 30 seasons. If he's achieving those gains legally and can continue that trend then maybe he he'll have more career success / longevity then I'm giving him credit for. 

As for the other pitchers, yes Cease only averaged 96 mph on his fastball last season, but he's consistently averaged 97 / 98 every other season. I think you'd be hard pressed to find a single who person who thinks Valdez throws harder or has a better fastball than Cease.  

 

Are you capable of doing even the smallest amount of research before you post?   Framber Valdez fastball velocity was in the 73rd percentile last year.  His fastball run value was 76%.  Cease’ fastball run value was in the 31%.  I like Cease but it’s all about his slider.  

[HakunaSakata]

9 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Are you capable of doing even the smallest amount of research before you post?   Framber Valdez fastball velocity was in the 73rd percentile last year.  His fastball run value was 76%.  Cease’ fastball run value was in the 31%.  I like Cease but it’s all about his slider.  

Are you able to respond to a post without coming across as an a$$hole?

[Moose Milligan]

18 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Are you capable of doing even the smallest amount of research before you post?   Framber Valdez fastball velocity was in the 73rd percentile last year.  His fastball run value was 76%.  Cease’ fastball run value was in the 31%.  I like Cease but it’s all about his slider.  

 

7 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

Are you able to respond to a post without coming across as an a$$hole?

Tis the season.  Simmer down, fellas.

[RZNJ]

37 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

Are you able to respond to a post without coming across as an a$$hole?

Sometimes but it’s not easy on your posts.  You continually put out erroneous information without even checking.   

[RZNJ]

31 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

 

Tis the season.  Simmer down, fellas.

There goes another potential friend.  Oh well!

[Billy F-Face3]

15 hours ago, HakunaSakata said:

I get that, but the other trade candidates are both younger AND probably cheaper. If that's the case then the combination of the two would definitely lead me to prefer Burnes or Cease over Valdez. If we have to give up comparable trade packages then I think it becomes more of a grey area. 

Your presumption of Cease being cheaper is more than likely wrong. During the trade deadline, Chicago was asking for all types of outrageous prospect packages. One report said they even asked about Holliday. They may have switched GMs, but they are still owned by the same ownership and the new GM will be dead set on making a big splash as his first move and will probably be looking to take advantage of any interested front offices. This is also the pitcher they have slotted 1st in their rotation order, so they over value him.

If they are going to over value him and make him that expensive, I'd rather go for a better pitcher with more consistent career success, such as Valdez or Burnes, based on the results by seasons through their careers. The problem with Burnes though, is that he's too much like Kyle Gibson and the Orioles want more variety in their rotation. The left handed Valdez provides that.

[Billy F-Face3]

Just now, Billy F-Face3 said:

The problem with Burnes though, is that he's too much like Kyle Gibson and the Orioles want more variety in their rotation. The left handed Valdez provides that.

I mean to say Kyle Bradish, not Kyle Gibson.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

I mean to say Kyle Bradish, not Kyle Gibson.

I would gladly have another pitcher exactly like Bradish.  

[HakunaSakata]

4 hours ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

Your presumption of Cease being cheaper is more than likely wrong. During the trade deadline, Chicago was asking for all types of outrageous prospect packages. One report said they even asked about Holliday. They may have switched GMs, but they are still owned by the same ownership and the new GM will be dead set on making a big splash as his first move and will probably be looking to take advantage of any interested front offices. This is also the pitcher they have slotted 1st in their rotation order, so they over value him.

If they are going to over value him and make him that expensive, I'd rather go for a better pitcher with more consistent career success, such as Valdez or Burnes, based on the results by seasons through their careers. The problem with Burnes though, is that he's too much like Kyle Gibson and the Orioles want more variety in their rotation. The left handed Valdez provides that.

What the White Sox want for Cease and what they actually get (if they even trade him) are two different things. I don't see how anyone could look at the surface past performance numbers  of both pitchers and not justify giving up more for Valdez than Cease. Valdez has had a comparable sub 3.00 ERA season to Cease AND three other consistently good seasons. And unless the team trading for Cease plans to sign him long term (like the Dodgers recently did when they traded for Glasnow) then the age difference shouldn't really factor into the equation. Even though I have some concerns about him, I don't completely dislike Valdez as a pitcher, I just think that Cease and Burnes should be considerably better values.

Unless we're able to trade for someone like one of the younger Mariner's pitchers, who could realistically be a long term building block for the franchise I think we're basically just trying to bide time until the development of our pitching prospects catches up with our hitting prospects. And in the biding time scenario I want to give up the least amount of high level prospects as possible. That's why I'm out on Valdez. If I'm wrong and he's available for a similar package as Burnes or Cease then that changes things. 

The only thing that Burnes and Gibson have in common is that they're both right-handed. That's it. And yes a lefty would be nice, but if they legitimately have a chance to land a pitcher of Burnes caliber (for less) then I think you get the talent and worry about the lefty / righty situation after. 

[OriolesMagic83]

20 hours ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

I mean to say Kyle Bradish, not Kyle Gibson.

Please no more top 5 pitchers in the AL, I can't take it.