Fangraphs hates our rotation

[maybenxtyr]

1 minute ago, Satyr3206 said:

I am not against trades. Just lopsided ones.

Gotcha... unfortunately it seems as though any trade will be rough on the surface. I think in a few years it will look better, that's if a trade happens. Very rarely will a trade work out as bad as the Davis trade back in the day.

[CaptainRedbeard]

39 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Another very good point.  I mentioned the Steamer/ZiPS thing in another context relating to the O’s W/L projections the other day.  The bottom line is, there’s a ton of variability in any of these projections, to the point where they’re almost valueless.  I look at them for entertainment value (and often post comparisons of them) but don’t have much confidence in any of them. 

With the amount of variance that goes into a team’s record at the end of the year, the confidence level you can put in the preseason team win projections is pretty much just this: in any given year, there’s about 4-6 teams we can be confident will be pretty good (and sometimes they go 2023 Mets), and there’s about 4-6 teams we can be confident will be pretty bad (and sometimes they go 2012 Orioles), and otherwise every other team could be good or bad.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, interloper said:

All due respect, I don't know if we were watching the same guy. While he managed to gut through his starts with a good ERA, his strikeout rate was down like 4 per 9 from 2022, and he just didn't miss any bats with the changeup. He looked fine overall for a guy coming back from TJS, but to say he looked exactly the same is just plain wrong. It wasn't the same devastating changeup, and he wiggled out of some starts. His hits per 9 was also way down, which is good, but probably means he was lucky when you combine that with the lack of Ks.

All that said, it was only 22 innings, so it's not like the lack of Ks and missed bats means much of anything. But visually, no, he absolutely did not look exactly the same. I am fairly comfortable saying he'll look more like himself in 2024.

I'm not sure we can accurately access a pitcher four games back after TJ surgery. Let me see what he looks like this year. Saying that, I agree that he can't just be penciled in for 32 starts and 180 innings of classic Means work. 

[Can_of_corn]

19 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I'm not sure we can accurately access a pitcher four games back after TJ surgery. Let me see what he looks like this year. Saying that, I agree that he can't just be penciled in for 32 starts and 180 innings of classic Means work. 

His career high (ML) in starts is 27 and innings is 155.  I don't think it would be sensible to assume he'd surpass those numbers in 2024.

[emmett16]

I’d sign up right now for 135ip of vintage Means.  
 

I think there is more upside than downside for the majority of our guys.  Most of them are at that age where they could take that next big step.  

[interloper]

I'm looking for 20-25 starts from Means, with a low 4ish ERA. Maybe 125-140 innings. I'm figuring he hits the IL at some point for something minor. I'd take that all day. 

[Sports Guy]

 

[dystopia]

40 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

 

The Rangers projection might be an even bigger joke than the one for the O's. 

[Mooreisbetter27]

41 minutes ago, dystopia said:

The Rangers projection might be an even bigger joke than the one for the O's. 

Why?  They won 90 last year.  These estimates are based on the team right now.  As of right now they don't have DeGrom for the year, Sherzer will be out half the year, they haven't resigned Montgomery and their one starting pitcher signing, Mahle, will be out at least the first half of the year.  

[emmett16]

1 hour ago, Mooreisbetter27 said:

Why?  They won 90 last year.  These estimates are based on the team right now.  As of right now they don't have DeGrom for the year, Sherzer will be out half the year, they haven't resigned Montgomery and their one starting pitcher signing, Mahle, will be out at least the first half of the year.  

They had the 4th best run differential in all of MLB last year (expected to win 96), and without those guys you mentioned (for the vast majority of the year).  We were 36 runs behind them tied with Houston for 5th/6th in run differential...we won 101 and HOU won 90.  

Edited January 9 by emmett16

[webbrick2010]

Dodgers at 92, kinda all you need to see to completely ignore these projections

[TommyPickles]

So we're going to have the sixth-worst rotation in baseball next year?

Welp. Looks like another year to bet on the OVER for the Orioles and not make any other sports bets all season.

[RZNJ]

6 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

Dodgers at 92, kinda all you need to see to completely ignore these projections

Bingo!

[btdart20]

12 minutes ago, TommyPickles said:

So we're going to have the sixth-worst rotation in baseball next year?

Welp. Looks like another year to bet on the OVER for the Orioles and not make any other sports bets all season.

And 5th worst bullpen.  Of course, they have us #2 at 3B.  Gunnar's now our 3B for the most part if FG is to be believed.  News to me.   

[btdart20]

23 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

They had the 4th best run differential in all of MLB last year (expected to win 96), and without those guys you mentioned (for the vast majority of the year).  We were 36 runs behind them tied with Houston for 5th/6th in run differential...we won 101 and HOU won 90.  

Houston's the one that jumped out at me.  These projections are usually 'normalized' somehow, so the low W totals don't really bother me.  It's more about the context of the other teams, IMO.

I don't buy the Astros (or NYY) being better than us.  And even if they are, it's not by that much.  

 

I looked into Codify (the ranker) and saw he does individual pitcher consulting.  Pitchers pay him to get tailored scouting reports for future hitters to be faced.  He seemed to work with a few CHW pitchers.  Which made me wonder if there is/was some divided/untrusting type of clubhouse dynamics going on...