Tim Kurkjian on 105.7

[SteveA]

3 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Couldn’t we just give Woodruff a 1 year deal for $4 million and if he looks good in August/September give him a QO?  Why guarantee him the 2nd year, unless that’s what he wants. The general consensus here is that he’s out all year in 2024. Kurkjian was the first I heard that said August was even possible. 

Sure we could.   If $4 million is the best that any team offers, he would take it.

I am doubtful that there won't be a team out there that offers more.

[Frobby]

16 minutes ago, SteveA said:

Sure we could.   If $4 million is the best that any team offers, he would take it.

I am doubtful that there won't be a team out there that offers more.

I wouldn’t take that if I were him.  Getting a QO slapped on him would significantly dampen the market for him next offseason.   

[wildcard]

Woodruff's problem is a shoulder.   That is much tougher to come back from than an elbow.  Tougher to be as good as he was IMO.

"This is a major procedure and capsule injuries in particular are worrisome. Many pitchers who have their capsule repaired returned as lesser versions of themselves. John Danks, Rich Harden, Mark Prior, and Johan Santana had their careers derailed by capsule surgery. That said, Julio Urías returned healthy and effective following his capsule surgery in July 2017."

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/brandon-woodruff-injury-brewers-ace-undergoes-shoulder-surgery-likely-to-miss-all-of-2024-season/

 

Edited February 9 by wildcard

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Woodruff's problem is a shoulder.   That is much tougher to come back from than an elbow.  Tougher to be as good as he was IMO.

"This is a major procedure and capsule injuries in particular are worrisome. Many pitchers who have their capsule repaired returned as lesser versions of themselves. John Danks, Rich Harden, Mark Prior, and Johan Santana had their careers derailed by capsule surgery. That said, Julio Urías returned healthy and effective following his capsule surgery in July 2017."

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/brandon-woodruff-injury-brewers-ace-undergoes-shoulder-surgery-likely-to-miss-all-of-2024-season/

 

That’s why you give him 2-3M for this year and 2025 is an incentive laden deal.

[Orioles West]

Tim insights are always interesting to me. As for Woodruff, even if Elias is looking at finding a way to add him, I can’t see an offer going out until the new ownership group is in place.

[sportsfan8703]

49 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Woodruff's problem is a shoulder.   That is much tougher to come back from than an elbow.  Tougher to be as good as he was IMO.

"This is a major procedure and capsule injuries in particular are worrisome. Many pitchers who have their capsule repaired returned as lesser versions of themselves. John Danks, Rich Harden, Mark Prior, and Johan Santana had their careers derailed by capsule surgery. That said, Julio Urías returned healthy and effective following his capsule surgery in July 2017."

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/brandon-woodruff-injury-brewers-ace-undergoes-shoulder-surgery-likely-to-miss-all-of-2024-season/

 

We did give Johan Santana 1 yr $3 million in 2014 coming off the same surgery. I’m not sure if Santana had been out longer, or had more recovery time. Santana had a line go off his leg and tear he Achilles tendon in a rehab start. 

The Woodruff idea fits a little more now that Burnes is on the team. Maybe he takes a deal with us because of Burnes’ recommendation. 

[Snutchy]

4 hours ago, scbalt52 said:

Love Tim. Ran into him in Cooperstown when Cal was being inducted. The power went off in the town and there was a pizza place with gas grill serving everyone. He was in line with us. He's as short as rumored but very nice. Talked to us for a few minutes.

I’ve been to Sal’s Pizza and it was great. I’m not sure if they’re gas fired ovens or not, but it’s a small town so maybe it was the same place. 

[Yardball85]

4 hours ago, Brooks The Great said:

I love Tim. I met him at Dempsey's (now called Superbook) after the Orioles lost Game 1 of the 2014 ALCS to the Royals. I mentioned that I was doing some sports writing at the time, and asked him if he would be willing to do an interview with me about the Orioles during the offseason. He graciously agreed and gave me his contact info. The transcribed interview was published by Tony here on Orioles Hangout, although the article may no longer be up. Tim Kirkjian is pure class.

Agreed. 

[yark14]

4 hours ago, btdart20 said:

Elias is a portfolio style investor.  Each investment has a role to play.  To get to the point, he’s got the IP risk metric covered for 2024.  If he wants to chase a yield, he can add risk.

But Woodruff feels like a 2025 investment play.  So the efficient frontier (risk/return) shifts around a bit with different time horizons in the rotation (no Burnes or Means).

Speak in English, please.

[btdart20]

15 minutes ago, yark14 said:

Speak in English, please.

Elias likes to deal with the risk of unstable floors before addressing the ceiling. 

I think Elias is comfortable with the IP coverage featuring ML-caliber arms for the 2024 season.  Signing Woodruff is a pure upside play for 2024 if the team is willing to risk losing 100% of the salary.  It could also add an SP who's much better than Means/Kremer as the #4.

For 2025, no Burnes and no Means.  So, there's quite a few IPs that need to be stabilized before adding a risky asset like Woodruff.

 

A 1-year deal for $X is probably best for the O's with a no QO guarantee is what I'd do.  (I stink at the $ guessing, but that's the idea.)

 

[Rustbelt]

Tim's interview last week on Remember When was really interesting.  He was talking about his time at Sports Illustrated and why he went over to ESPN. 

[yark14]

On 2/9/2024 at 4:41 PM, btdart20 said:

Elias likes to deal with the risk of unstable floors before addressing the ceiling. 

 

I didn't know Elias is both a construction engineer and stock broker.  Truly a renaissance man.

(Meanwhile, I had to look up how to spell renaissance)

Edited February 12 by yark14