Gunnar Henderson 2024

[RZNJ]

11 hours ago, interloper said:

I can't remember the last time someone hit a ground ball so hard it got past the center fielder, and it was a triple. Just bananas exit velo.

The same game.  Joe Adell got one past Cedric.

[Tony-OH]

11 hours ago, Hank Scorpio said:

I agree but still…. extend this man.

^^^^^^^ THIS ^^^^^^^^^^^^

I'm hoping one of the first thing we hear from Rubenstein is that the team has extended Gunnar for 12 years or something similar in length to Harper. This kid is very special and even with Holliday coming up, I think Henderson, along with Adley and Holliday will be the faces of this franchise. 

And we haven't even discussed Mayo and Basallo, both of which should be very special too.

[yark14]

11 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

I’m excited as anyone but I think we’re getting ahead of ourselves here. 

Let's circle back on this at the end of the season.

[interloper]

15 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

The same game.  Joe Adell got one past Cedric.

Nah. That was Ced's fault. Gunnar's was just literally hit too hard.

[interloper]

20 minutes ago, spleen1015 said:

Trout was being lazy.

 

 

Love it. We're in their heads!

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, interloper said:

Nah. That was Ced's fault. Gunnar's was just literally hit too hard.

That’s funny.  Adell had the top exit velocity in the game at 113.2.

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, interloper said:

Love it. We're in their heads!

Hicks should worry about hitting one of the many changeups the Oriole pitchers have been told to throw him.  You don’t talk to Moe Green, I mean Mike Trout, like that.

[interloper]

10 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

That’s funny.  Adell had the top exit velocity in the game at 113.2.

Look I'm not a scientist alright

[interloper]

8 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Hicks should worry about hitting one of the many changeups the Oriole pitchers have been told to throw him.  You don’t talk to Moe Green, I mean Mike Trout, like that.

That one swing for strike three where he almost fell over. Good lord. Looks like the Orioles magic wore off for him. Gonna be a long year if he's arguing with Trout on day 2.

[Moose Milligan]

43 minutes ago, yark14 said:

Let's circle back on this at the end of the season.

Okay. What metrics are we using to determine the best hitter in the league? I vote for OPS+. 

[Sports Guy]

Gunnar is under control for 4 more years after this one.  He will turn 28 in late June of his first free agency year.

It’s unlikely he signs a 12+ year gtd deal unless you go all Tatis on the contract, which I doubt Elias would do and he shouldn’t do it.

I would guess that we can get 2 free agency years right now. So, I think we can get him to sign to a contract for 6 years of guaranteed time in Baltimore. 
 

For the next 4 years, he is probably looking at something like 50M if everything goes right.  If everything is going right and judging by how salaries are trending, he will probably be in line for around 40-45M a year for a FA contract..but again, this is all the absolute best case scenario.  So, best case scenario for him for the next 6 years is 140 million.

Bobby Witt signed a 7 year deal. That takes him through his age 30 season and that includes 2M for this year. The Royals bought out 3 FA years. For the first 4 cost controlled seasons, the Royals are paying Witt 41M, which includes 2M this year, which is about a 1.25M raise the league minimum he would make.

If the Os followed that same path for the next 4 years, figure they are more around 45M vs the 41 he got.

In his 3 FA years, Witt is getting paid 100M.  So. He has 7/141 in his pocket (or 6/139 for arb + FA seasons)

So, if I’m the Os, I’m offering something like 6/115-120. That is one less FA year than Witt got but my guess is that Gunnar will not want that extra FA year taken up. If he is ok with it, 7/150 is about the area you are looking.

So, that’s my structure…6 years at 115-120M or 7/150. After that, he gets the Witt opt outs. 35-37M a year for 4 years with an opt out after each year. So, assuming he goes 6 years, max value is basically 10/270 or 11/300ish.

That beats out the Witt deal. 

So, it comes down to whether or not we can get 2 or 3 free agency years guaranteed and if Elias is ok with opt out type deals.  We just have zero idea if he is ok with that.

Of course, Gunnar and Boras may be ok with just a straight 6 or 7 year deal but I tend to believe if they sign this type of contract, they will want to be protected on the back end, just in case..especially since the Witt deal was already done and provides that framework.

Either way, I don’t see him turning this down. At most, he is losing $20M over 6 years or 35M over 7 years.  That sounds like a lot of money but when you consider that is a best case, everything goes right and you stay healthy scenario, it’s really not when you consider the financial security it gives you, while giving you the option to still cash out big in free agency.

Edit:  the one thing I will say that could make some of these numbers off (in terms of best case scenario) is will salaries keep going nuts and could he be in line for 50+M a year?  In that case, those best case numbers are off by another 10-20M or so.  I still say he signs the deal though.

Edited March 31 by Sports Guy

[Can_of_corn]

10 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Okay. What metrics are we using to determine the best hitter in the league? I vote for OPS+. 

I like wOBA.

[spleen1015]

52 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Okay. What metrics are we using to determine the best hitter in the league? I vote for OPS+. 

RBI

[yark14]

57 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Okay. What metrics are we using to determine the best hitter in the league? I vote for OPS+. 

I'm cool with that.

[Moose Milligan]

12 minutes ago, spleen1015 said:

RBI

GW-RBI.