Gunnar Henderson 2024

[spleen1015]

2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

GW-RBI. 

Now that's just getting silly.

[Moose Milligan]

9 minutes ago, yark14 said:

I'm cool with that.

Ok. Expecting you to bump this in early October. 

[maybenxtyr]

9 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

GW-RBI. 

I remember when that was a highlight on the back of Topps baseball cards.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Gunnar is under control for 4 more years after this one.  He will turn 28 in late June of his first free agency year.

It’s unlikely he signs a 12+ year gtd deal unless you go all Tatis on the contract, which I doubt Elias would do and he shouldn’t do it.

I would guess that we can get 2 free agency years right now. So, I think we can get him to sign to a contract for 6 years of guaranteed time in Baltimore. 
 

For the next 4 years, he is probably looking at something like 50M if everything goes right.  If everything is going right and judging by how salaries are trending, he will probably be in line for around 40-45M a year for a FA contract..but again, this is all the absolute best case scenario.  So, best case scenario for him for the next 6 years is 140 million.

Bobby Witt signed a 7 year deal. That takes him through his age 30 season and that includes 2M for this year. The Royals bought out 3 FA years. For the first 4 cost controlled seasons, the Royals are paying Witt 41M, which includes 2M this year, which is about a 1.25M raise the league minimum he would make.

If the Os followed that same path for the next 4 years, figure they are more around 45M vs the 41 he got.

In his 3 FA years, Witt is getting paid 100M.  So. He has 7/141 in his pocket (or 6/139 for arb + FA seasons)

So, if I’m the Os, I’m offering something like 6/115-120. That is one less FA year than Witt got but my guess is that Gunnar will not want that extra FA year taken up. If he is ok with it, 7/150 is about the area you are looking.

So, that’s my structure…6 years at 115-120M or 7/150. After that, he gets the Witt opt outs. 35-37M a year for 4 years with an opt out after each year. So, assuming he goes 6 years, max value is basically 10/270 or 11/300ish.

That beats out the Witt deal. 

So, it comes down to whether or not we can get 2 or 3 free agency years guaranteed and if Elias is ok with opt out type deals.  We just have zero idea if he is ok with that.

Of course, Gunnar and Boras may be ok with just a straight 6 or 7 year deal but I tend to believe if they sign this type of contract, they will want to be protected on the back end, just in case..especially since the Witt deal was already done and provides that framework.

Either way, I don’t see him turning this down. At most, he is losing $20M over 6 years or 35M over 7 years.  That sounds like a lot of money but when you consider that is a best case, everything goes right and you stay healthy scenario, it’s really not when you consider the financial security it gives you, while giving you the option to still cash out big in free agency.

Edit:  the one thing I will say that could make some of these numbers off (in terms of best case scenario) is will salaries keep going nuts and could he be in line for 50+M a year?  In that case, those best case numbers are off by another 10-20M or so.  I still say he signs the deal though.

I really hate the four consecutive opt out years at $35-37 mm.  That’s a huge one-way risk.  

[Moose Milligan]

3 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

I remember when that was a highlight on the back of Topps baseball cards.

Me too. Remember being 9 and thinking it was a huge deal. 

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I really hate the four consecutive opt out years at $35-37 mm.  That’s a huge one-way risk.  

If you want the guaranteed years, it’s probably what you have to do.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

If you want the guaranteed years, it’s probably what you have to do.

I’d have to study it more, but I thought the Witt contract was stupid and I’m not inclined to copy stupid ideas.  I generally don’t mind an opt out, but four of them at those prices just skews the risk too far IMO.

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’d have to study it more, but I thought the Witt contract was stupid and I’m not inclined to copy stupid ideas.  I generally don’t mind an opt out, but four of them at those prices just skews the risk too far IMO.

It’s very likely you either do it or you don’t sign him. Which do you choose?

In theory, I don’t disagree with you but I also don’t mind opt outs in general.  I will say if we are taking on that additional risk, it would be nice to get the third FA year guaranteed.

[yark14]

23 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Ok. Expecting you to bump this in early October. 

That's like asking me to remember which day the trash goes out...

[RZNJ]

It’s a beautiful thing when one negotiates multi million dollar deals with themselves.  The deal always gets done.

[OriolesMagic83]

4 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Okay. What metrics are we using to determine the best hitter in the league? I vote for OPS+. 

Average and the sound the ball makes off the bat.

[Moose Milligan]

22 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Average and the sound the ball makes off the bat.

[IPlayGM]

Is there anywhere to find out how hard Gunnar’s throw was after the diving stop? That was an absolute missile.

[DirtyBird]

Just now, IPlayGM said:

Is there anywhere to find out how hard Gunnar’s throw was after the diving stop? That was an absolute missile.

It was 83 mph

[RZNJ]

Two game changing plays last night.  In the 8th inning with two outs and the bases loaded Gunnar fields the do or die bounce on the chopper to SS to keep the score 3-3.   In the bottom of the 8th he’s on 2nd base with one out and Santander hits a liner to deep center towards left center.   Not the typical fly ball you tag up on.  A lot of runners would have gone halfway and either be unable or had difficulty tagging up and getting to third.  It was a great read, IMO, and base running play by Gunnar.   Getting to 3rd turned out to be pivotal as he scored on the infield hit to deep short by Mountcastle.