Right handed hitters, importance of Westburg and Mayo

[Spy Fox]

5 hours ago, emmett16 said:

Hays is 28y/o in his prime.  He’s averaged >2.5 WAR last three years.  He could conceivably do even better this year.   2.5 WAR is an absolute ceiling for Norby/Cowser.  You’re significantly underrating Hays.  I realize there are some shiny new toys, but there is very little chance he gets outperformed by either or a combination of Cowser & Norby this year.  

I'm less sure about Norby but Cowser's ceiling is absolutely above 2.5 WAR and above what Hays has provided to this point in his career. Cowser's minor league OBP is almost 100 points higher than Hays' was (.420 to .326). I'm not sure he'll do it but if he can translate most of that skill to the big leagues the ceiling value is very high.  

[emmett16]

6 hours ago, Spy Fox said:

I'm less sure about Norby but Cowser's ceiling is absolutely above 2.5 WAR and above what Hays has provided to this point in his career. Cowser's minor league OBP is almost 100 points higher than Hays' was (.420 to .326). I'm not sure he'll do it but if he can translate most of that skill to the big leagues the ceiling value is very high.  

*This year, as stated in my post.  There are no major projection outlets predicting anything close to that.  Could he do it, sure.  But that’d be his ceiling.

Hays has a much better chance of outperforming him this year. 

[Orioles0615]

I will say right now the bench is extremely weak. You have Cowser who should be a starter. A guy who completely pointless, and a guy who is supposed to be a pinch runner and defensive replacement whose defense has gone down hill and when he come to pinch run he does nothing but dance around on first base like Freddie Astaire 

[Spy Fox]

3 hours ago, emmett16 said:

*This year, as stated in my post.  There are no major projection outlets predicting anything close to that.  Could he do it, sure.  But that’d be his ceiling.

Hays has a much better chance of outperforming him this year. 

You're right that I was referring to career ceiling, but I don't think his ceiling this year is 2.5 WAR either. If he were to get the playing time necessary to accumulate.

I do agree with you that lots of folks overrate the certainty of Cowser and others outplaying the vets. 

Edited April 2 by Spy Fox

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

You're right that I was referring to career ceiling, but I don't think his ceiling this year is 2.5 WAR either. If he were to get the playing time necessary to accumulate.

I do agree with you that lots of folks overrate the certainty of Cowser and others outplaying the vets. 

I’d say Cowser’s odds of exceeding 2.5 rWAR this season if given full playing time aren’t very good.   How many guys league-wide exceed that in their rookie year?   Maybe 4-5.  

That’s not necessarily the end of the conversation though.   You have to start somewhere.  Cowser is more likely to have a better 2025 if he plays a lot in 2025, than he would if he got very little experience in 2024.   So that has to be put into the equation.   

I’d like the O’s to put Cowser on about a 300 PA pace and adjust from there depending on his performance as well as that of the players around him.  100 PA by end of May, then adjust as necesssry.  

 

[Just Regular]

Encouraging early signs from Ryan Mountcastle here too.

I admit I was a little discouraged by Cowser against McArthur last night when you knew with near certainty it was going to be curves and he still went down swinging.     Taxes are one of those unavoidables.

[Spy Fox]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’d say Cowser’s odds of exceeding 2.5 rWAR this season if given full playing time aren’t very good.   How many guys league-wide exceed that in their rookie year?   Maybe 4-5.  

That’s not necessarily the end of the conversation though.   You have to start somewhere.  Cowser is more likely to have a better 2025 if he plays a lot in 2025, than he would if he got very little experience in 2024.   So that has to be put into the equation.   

I’d like the O’s to put Cowser on about a 300 PA pace and adjust from there depending on his performance as well as that of the players around him.  100 PA by end of May, then adjust as necesssry.  
 

I don't think it's very likely either, but I think ceiling describes, where could this guy reach if things really click? 

Just looking at last year, 10 rookies got 2.5+ fWAR. Only five got 3+. To me a recent comp for Cowser's ceiling could be James Outman last year. He was a successful minor league hitter, but not a super high-rated prospect, and rode a .354 OBP, 23 HRs, and positive defensive value to 4.4 fWAR. That could very well be Outman's career year (or Cowser's, if he does it), but sometimes ceiling strikes early. 

[interloper]

56 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Encouraging early signs from Ryan Mountcastle here too.

I admit I was a little discouraged by Cowser against McArthur last night when you knew with near certainty it was going to be curves and he still went down swinging.     Taxes are one of those unavoidables.

Guys are just gonna throw him anything but the fastball until he proves he can hit breaking stuff or take a walk. 

[Say O!]

14 minutes ago, interloper said:

Guys are just gonna throw him anything but the fastball until he proves he can hit breaking stuff or take a walk. 

He looked like a left handed Pedro Cerrano up there last night.