Austin Hays 2024

[Safelykept]

22 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Many players are blocking Norby, Stowers, and Kjerstad.  Even moving Hays off the team will free up room for at most 1 of them. 

Who are these many players? You didn't mention Hays in You're post and I will grant you the way hes struggled 2nd half last year and start of this year hes working himself into a platoon with Cowser but hes already here, so maybe cowser is blocking Kjerstad from that potential platoon with Hays. As far Norby and Stowers unless thers massive injuries forget about them, At least Stowers is a LH bat, and Norby where you going to play Him?

[Rbiggs2525]

Hays OPS+ for the season is 8. League average hitter is 100.

[Bird Lady]

Could he be ill or hurt and not saying anything? I don't believe I have ever seen him look this lost at the plate.

[emmett16]

5 minutes ago, Rbiggs2525 said:

Hays OPS+ for the season is 8. League average hitter is 100.

Come on, man his OPS+ isn't that bad.........it's 9.  

 

In all seriousness, I'm far from a Hays supporter and wanted to see him traded in the off-season, but I won't be calling for his head until mid-late May.  Ryan Mountcastle has 4 more hits than Austin and his OPS+ is 175.  You can't take anything from numbers in the first two series. 

[Rbiggs2525]

5 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

Come on, man his OPS+ isn't that bad.........it's 9.  

 

In all seriousness, I'm far from a Hays supporter and wanted to see him traded in the off-season, but I won't be calling for his head until mid-late May.  Ryan Mountcastle has 4 more hits than Austin and his OPS+ is 175.  You can't take anything from numbers in the first two series. 

I agree with some of that. You add in the last 2 months of regular season, the postseason, spring training and 3 viable minor options. Hays is a 700-750 OPS 4th outfielder on a AL East champion teams. He’s and Oriole and there is nothing wrong with that.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

7 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

Come on, man his OPS+ isn't that bad.........it's 9.  

 

In all seriousness, I'm far from a Hays supporter and wanted to see him traded in the off-season, but I won't be calling for his head until mid-late May.  Ryan Mountcastle has 4 more hits than Austin and his OPS+ is 175.  You can't take anything from numbers in the first two series. 

If Hays has a bad week in the middle of June no one is panicking. Everything is going to be more pronounced at the start of the season. That said if Hays doesn't break out of his slump then he should start seeing the bench more often with Cowser on the team.

[jamalshw]

27 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

If Hays has a bad week in the middle of June no one is panicking. Everything is going to be more pronounced at the start of the season. That said if Hays doesn't break out of his slump then he should start seeing the bench more often with Cowser on the team.

Agreed completely. Though, he should start losing some ABs now. We've seen second half collapses each of the last two years and that may be a durability thing. He may be a guy that's better served as a 400ish AB player rather than a 550-600 AB player. 

[Filmstudy]

15 hours ago, Orioles0615 said:

Since the all star break last year Hays is hitting .232 and has a.692 OPS.

This isn't way off, but I am seeing somewhat worse since last AS break.  Per PFR:

2023 2nd half: 

.667 OPS

2024 so far:

.349 OPS

That covers 254 PAs. 

I think we're way past the "let's be patient" point, so I don't see why May 1st or the AS break or the trade deadline or the end of the season or "somewhere down the road" is appropriate.  The intermediate solution is available right now (at no cost to service time considerations) in the form of a platoon.

If the team goes to a platoon, Hays' defensive impact will still be maximized by innings as a def replacement and the fact he'll close out games for Cowser when he is pulled due to a LHP.

[Frobby]

On 4/3/2024 at 9:37 PM, Orioles0615 said:

Since the all star break last year Hays is hitting .232 and has a.692 OPS.

I can’t tell you how much I hate any argument that combines a part of the previous season with this season, especially when we’re talking about one week of this season.  

[ShoelesJoe]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I can’t tell you how much I hate any argument that combines a part of the previous season with this season, especially when we’re talking about one week of this season.  

Why shouldn't we look at the last half of 2023 plus how Hays has started this year? Especially if there's some consistency to be seen?

On June 20, 2023 Hays was at .327 / .366 / .527. In the 83 games since then he's hit .222 / .286 / .355. The fact that some of those 83 games were in 2023 and some in 2024 doesn't invalidate the trend in his offensive production. Players don't just start from scratch at the beginning of every season. If there's a flaw in their approach in July, August, September, and October of one year should we be surprised if the same flaw appears the next March and April? Of course Hays' problem might not be a flaw in his approach. He might be slowing down, or the scouts for opposing teams have figured him out. But it appears that something changed for the worse in his game midway through last season, and so far he hasn't been able to figure out a way to fix it.

I'm sure Hays and his coaches are aware of what's going on and are trying to find a solution. But he's 29 years old, and an 83 game slump isn't just bad luck. If Hays can't fix whatever's wrong soon then the game has a way of fixing it for him. 

[Frobby]

21 minutes ago, ShoelesJoe said:

Why shouldn't we look at the last half of 2023 plus how Hays has started this year? Especially if there's some consistency to be seen?

The biggest thing is that 5 games from this year mean absolutely nothing.  

The second thing is that there have been almost six months between the end of last season and now, so there’s no real link between the second half of last season and now.  

But I’ll tell you what: let’s revisit this on May 31.   If Hays still has an OPS in the .600’s by then, I’ll be concerned.  

His timing is badly off right now, not squaring up balls he normally would barrel.   Those things come and go during a season, so a week doesn’t worry me.  Two months would.


 

[Spy Fox]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

The biggest thing is that 5 games from this year mean absolutely nothing.  

The second thing is that there have been almost six months between the end of last season and now, so there’s no real link between the second half of last season and now.  

But I’ll tell you what: let’s revisit this on May 31.   If Hays still has an OPS in the .600’s by then, I’ll be concerned.  

His timing is badly off right now, not squaring up balls he normally would barrel.   Those things come and go during a season, so a week doesn’t worry me.  Two months would.

I remember from previous years that you typically give that May 31 or Memorial Day cutoff. I think that's usually right but I think the leash could be shorter for the 2024 O's in terms of PT. The situation in AAA puts a uniquely high amount of pressure, especially on the corner OF and 1b/DH guys, to perform now or lose your spot to someone who is. 

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

I remember from previous years that you typically give that May 31 or Memorial Day cutoff. I think that's usually right but I think the leash could be shorter for the 2024 O's in terms of PT. The situation in AAA puts a uniquely high amount of pressure, especially on the corner OF and 1b/DH guys, to perform now or lose your spot to someone who is. 

I do think you could see some modest PT changes before May 31, moreso than in the past.  Especially if Cowser hits well.  

[Filmstudy]

Cowser is in the lineup vs a RHP the day after an off day.  I think this is a good sign the Orioles may be moving to a platoon now.  

Of course the Pirates are scheduled to start LHP the next 2 days, so we probably won't know for a while and this may also have influenced the decision to start Cowser today.

Edited April 5 by Filmstudy

[Malike]

12 minutes ago, Filmstudy said:

Cowser is in the lineup vs a RHP the day after an off day.  I think this is a good sign the Orioles may be moving to a platoon now.  

Of course the Pirates are scheduled to start LHP the next 2 days, so we probably won't know for a while and this may also have influenced the decision to start Cowser today.

Interested to see how Cowser does against big velo. I hope he shows out and doesn't get dominated by sliders down and in.