Anthony Santander 2024

[HowAboutThat]

11 hours ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

I also think Santander will age better than Trumbo, despite my repeated comparisons of the two players.

But I don't know that he will age better than Trumbo and all of the other one dimensional sluggers who were enjoying the retired millionaire sports star lifestyle by their mid-30s, and I don't want the Orioles to be on the hook when the world finds out in 2 or 3 years.

Re-signing Santander to a 4 year, $80 million dollar deal is something the DD/PA regime would have done. Hopefully the ME/DR regime is smarter than that (and I think they are).

22nd percentile is really bad, man.

And it's unlikely to improve in his 30s.

Your point is entirely valid. Just because Tony is better than Trumbo was means nothing, because Trumbo was a catastrophe. It was just beyond comprehension that they kept putting him in the field.

That said, Santander is still ok. Diminished range, but a good glove and arm.

However, they avoided the problem with Nelson Cruz in Seattle and Minnesota by just putting him designated hitter, so that’s a possibility for Santander, if he can maintain solid contact.

But not here. Let’s take the pick and use it on pitching, please.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Here’s the thing.  Almost every free agent is around Santander’s age, or older.   So if we’re ruling out paying Santander, are we ruling out signing virtually any high-priced free agent?   Or is there something specific about Santander?   

I have real mixed feelings on this one.  I have a feeling the market will give him too many years and too much money.  But I don’t think it’s likely that Kjerstad etc. will fully or immediately replace his production or his leadership (which is underrated).   So, it’s tricky.   I lean towards letting him walk after offering the QO, but I can see the case for keeping him.  
 

Age, body type, how he plays(strengths/weaknesses) and what we have depth at, in terms of high end talent, coming up behind him.

And yes, we should be out on most key FAs because they are largely terrible investments.

[Just Regular]

I think Mullins is as set as the entire lineup, but he would have to go if Elias chased the Robert upgrade.

Getz already navigated the 3-team thing when he wanted Dodgers Latin kids, and the Dodgers didn't feel Erick Fedde was the caliber of pitcher they wanted to deploy.

I do like Santander as a Victor Martinez aficionado, but he and Kjerstad are both RF profiles and, holy Rio Ruiz Batman, the handpicked kid has to play.    This is one of those calculations where the 80% as good for 20% of the cost part is easy, even if Kjerstad never achieves the heights Santander is at now.

There's still room to hope Kjerstad is all Santander is and more, but even if he isn't, the team needs the Santander salary slot repurposed to pitching more than it needs him.

I think after this summer's moves, we got a fair bit of information if Elias is trading Cowser/Kjerstad for pitching...looking like he isn't.

[wildcard]

Right now I see the pitching staff as.  Eflin, GRod, Suarez, Kremer and one of Povich, Rogers, McDermott and Young.  All of the 5th starters have options so they can be on the shuttle if needed.   Bradish and Wells may come back in the 2nd half.

Pen:  Bautista, Cano, Coulombe, Dominguez, Soto, Akin, Perez, Webb and Bowman.   Yes that is 9 but someone is normally injured.   I will not be surprised if the O's protect Nick Anderson and bring him to camp in case of injuries.    Akin has an option next year.

That is 20 pitchers.

Will Elias look to improve over the winner? Sure but with the 5th starters being able to either start or be a long man in the pen the O's begin the off season with volume on the pitching staff.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Here’s the thing.  Almost every free agent is around Santander’s age, or older.   So if we’re ruling out paying Santander, are we ruling out signing virtually any high-priced free agent?   Or is there something specific about Santander?   

I have real mixed feelings on this one.  I have a feeling the market will give him too many years and too much money.  But I don’t think it’s likely that Kjerstad etc. will fully or immediately replace his production or his leadership (which is underrated).   So, it’s tricky.   I lean towards letting him walk after offering the QO, but I can see the case for keeping him.  
 

The issue with Santander is that he is completely and utterly one dimensional. He doesn't hit for average, he doesn't get on base, he's a slow/bad baserunner, and he is a bad defender.

All he does is slug, and if he stops slugging so much, his contract becomes dead money, and the Orioles cannot afford $20 million of dead money like NY or LA can.

2 hours ago, TommyPickles said:

Would you offer Santander 4 years, $80 million?

Absolutely not.

I would offer the QO and that's it.

14 minutes ago, HowAboutThat said:

Your point is entirely valid. Just because Tony is better than Trumbo was means nothing, because Trumbo was a catastrophe. It was just beyond comprehension that they kept putting him in the field.

That said, Santander is still ok. Diminished range, but a good glove and arm.

However, they avoided the problem with Nelson Cruz in Seattle and Minnesota by just putting him designated hitter, so that’s a possibility for Santander, if he can maintain solid contact.

But not here. Let’s take the pick and use it on pitching, please.

Wildcard has brought this up a bunch of times over the last few years- apparently Santander's numbers when DHing are pretty awful.

I guess he's one of those guys who needs to play the field to stay focused/locked-in

[TommyPickles]

Alright, so seems like the consensus on here is "No" to 4/80. 

Let's keep the bidding going, would you say yes to 3 years, $55 million?

That would be about 18 million each for his age 30, 31, and 32 seasons.

This year's qualifying offer is like $21.2 million.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, TommyPickles said:

Alright, so seems like the consensus on here is "No" to 4/80. 

Let's keep the bidding going, would you say yes to 3 years, $55 million?

That would be about 18 million each for his age 30, 31, and 32 seasons.

This year's qualifying offer is like $21.2 million.

No..QO and that’s it.  And btw, I think he’s gets more than 3/55.  The league is starved for offense and most teams don’t have the depth of elite talented bats like the Os do.

[wildcard]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Here’s the thing.  Almost every free agent is around Santander’s age, or older.   So if we’re ruling out paying Santander, are we ruling out signing virtually any high-priced free agent?   Or is there something specific about Santander?   

I have real mixed feelings on this one.  I have a feeling the market will give him too many years and too much money.  But I don’t think it’s likely that Kjerstad etc. will fully or immediately replace his production or his leadership (which is underrated).   So, it’s tricky.   I lean towards letting him walk after offering the QO, but I can see the case for keeping him.  
 

I agree that Kjerstad will probably not replace Santander's offensive production but the combination  of the improvement from Kjerstad, Westburg, Cowser, Holliday and Mayo may meet or except what is lost by  letting Santander walk.

[TommyPickles]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

No..QO and that’s it.  And btw, I think he’s gets more than 3/55.  The league is starved for offense and most teams don’t have the depth of elite talented bats like the Os do.

Yea, I think he'll get more than that, too. But personally, I'd do that deal.

I was against it in the beginning of the year, but I think the O's offense needs his bat, particularly in 2025. Plus he seems like he's in great shape.

Fielding Bible graded him as having a positive DRS (1) in 71 innings at 1B last year, too.

It just feels like the window is gonna be WIDE open next season. We might have to slightly overpay to put the finishing touches on this team. But maybe I'm too bullish on Anthony. 

 

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, TommyPickles said:

Yea, I think he'll get more than that, too. But personally, I'd do that deal.

I was against it in the beginning of the year, but I think the O's offense needs his bat, particularly in 2025. Plus he seems like he's in great shape.

Fielding Bible graded him as having a positive DRS (1) in 71 innings at 1B last year, too.

It just feels like the window is gonna be WIDE open next season. We might have to slightly overpay to put the finishing touches on this team. But maybe I'm too bullish on Anthony. 

 

Chris Davis was also in great shape. 

[RZNJ]

The two things that Santander brings are being able to hit RH and the leadership.    Letting him go almost forces us to keep Mountcastle because of so many LH hitters.   Santander is having a career year.   If he “only” hits 30 homers next year everyone will be disappointed with the overall production.   Time to give RF to Kjerstad and work Mayo into the DH spot.   As someone else said, offensive improvement needs to come from Holliday and Cowser with Kjerstad replacing a lot, not all, of Santander’s.

As for the leadership, some of the young veterans have to step up sooner or later.

QA.

[TommyPickles]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Chris Davis was also in great shape. 

Haha true. But that was $161 million. I'm proposing something more like the JJ Hardy deal (adjusted for inflation). 

Hardy was only worth 1.7 WAR over those last 3 years, so I guess it was a "bad deal" on paper. But he helped the O's get back to the playoffs in 2016 and he helped to anchor a young infield.

 

[maybenxtyr]

This conversation is the definition of baseball is a business. Losing Santander and the things he does well is going to suck. Keeping him and having time win on a bad contract would suck. Considering that they've drafted predominantly on the offensive side, they have to give him the QO and allocate the resources to the pitching and other areas of need.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, TommyPickles said:

Haha true. But that was $161 million. I'm proposing something more like the JJ Hardy deal (adjusted for inflation). 

Hardy was only worth 1.7 WAR over those last 3 years, so I guess it was a "bad deal" on paper. But he helped the O's get back to the playoffs in 2016 and he helped to anchor a young infield.

 

I’m just saying that just because you are in great shape, doesn’t mean you will age well.
I thought it would be a big help to Davis and it wasn’t.

[TommyPickles]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

I’m just saying that just because you are in great shape, doesn’t mean you will age well.
I thought it would be a big help to Davis and it wasn’t.

No, you're right. That's a good point.