If you were GM, what would you do about the AAA depth?

[casadeozo]

We have 4x guys in AAA ready to be promoted (Stowers, Kjerstad, Norby, and Mayo).

With Santander a free agent at the end of the year I assume he’s on the team and is not offered a new contract. My assumption is this spot goes to Kjerstad as the logical fit.

Does that mean Kjerstad spends the year in AAA? Elias has said he won’t have players dominating AAA and not get promoted but we certainly can’t count on an injury.

i think Mayo takes the Urias spot at some point this year (both right handed bats that play the infield).

That leaves Norby and Stowers. Should we assume there is not a spot for them without some kind of injury? Looking at the current roster the only spots I see as replaceable are Mateo and O’Hearn who are both playing decently and have value to the current team. 

Hays is the wildcard. It seems as he is now mostly a bench/platoon bat but that doesn’t open up a spot for one of these guys. 

[Spy Fox]

The one thing I would be doing now is trying to move on from Urias to open up Mayo's spot. 

It may not be fair to them but the others are still waiting to see what plays out. Any of the four could be the first up for an injury depending on who it is. And while you can't count on an injury to any specific player, you can pretty well count on there being some amount of injury time from the MLB position player group. 

[interloper]

If I'm GM, my first priority is to get John Means and Kyle Bradish back on the pitching staff. I know that doesn't really count as AAA depth, but just saying. Those are much more important things to worry about than the AAA hitters. 

My next priority is to examine the schedule and if there's a string of LHP coming up, I'm calling up Mayo to help with that. I only really see Urias as an option there. I'm hoping to trade him.

I don't see a fit for Heston, Stowers, or Norby right now. So I will hold those cards for injuries or a deadline trade. 

 

[DirtyBird]

3 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

The one thing I would be doing now is trying to move on from Urias to open up Mayo's spot. 

Unfortunately, Mayo isn't coming up with a 32% K rate and a glove that still needs work.

[Fiver6565]

3 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

The one thing I would be doing now is trying to move on from Urias to open up Mayo's spot. 

It may not be fair to them but the others are still waiting to see what plays out. Any of the four could be the first up for an injury depending on who it is. And while you can't count on an injury to any specific player, you can pretty well count on there being some amount of injury time from the MLB position player group. 

Urias is a defensive replacement and occasional pinch hitter. That will not be Mayo’s role. Urias may be blocking Mayo’s roster spot but Westburg is the real reason Mayo doesn’t need to be here yet. That and his D at third is not yet adequate, and there’s also currently no need at first. 
 

I think Mayo stays down most of the year and gets the Gunnar cup of coffee in late August at best. Then next year he’s the fav for starting 3B, provided he improves his defense during this last year in AAA. Westburg becomes basically a fifth infield ‘starter’. 

[DirtyBird]

1 minute ago, Fiver6565 said:

Then next year he’s the fav for starting 3B, provided he improves his defense during this last year in AAA. Westburg becomes basically a fifth infield ‘starter’. 

Or, with Santander & O'Hearn gone, he is a DH/RF

[Fiver6565]

Just now, DirtyBird said:

Or, with Santander & O'Hearn gone, he is a DH/RF

Sure. Either way next year, not this. And leaving a 21 year old kid in AAA for the year is not nearly the tragedy some will make it out to be. 

[TheWall]

The idea that we have 4 players "ready" to be promoted is probably flawed to begin with. Mayo is still striking out a ton and doesn't have a position that he can play at a Major League level. He's an awesome prospect, but he needs more time before he can come in and contribute to a winning team. 

Stowers could be promoted, but beyond his early power surge he's batting .263 with a .333 OBP. I'm not entirely convinced he'll ever be an above average Major League regular. I don't think he provides anything over the options we currently have on the roster. 

Norby's bat seems ready, but he's defensively limited. They've been trying to give him reps in the OF, but I doubt he's ready to play there regularly. He could hypothetically be used as a DH against LHP for now, but we might be better off letting him get more comfortable in LF / RF. 

Kjerstad is the most ready to help right now, but he's blocked by Santander, O'Hearn and Cowser. We could move on from Urias, but that would limit our ability to use Mateo as a pinch runner. Would probably make more sense to bring up Norby in that case to give us more defensive flexibility. I do think it's possible that he could be better than some of our regulars by the end of the season, but it's a really tough call to move on from one of those guys on take away their ABs for a rookie. I was worried about a similar situation with Cowser, but he seized the opportunity when Hays started slow. 

[Bemorewins]

23 minutes ago, casadeozo said:

We have 4x guys in AAA ready to be promoted (Stowers, Kjerstad, Norby, and Mayo).

With Santander a free agent at the end of the year I assume he’s on the team and is not offered a new contract. My assumption is this spot goes to Kjerstad as the logical fit.

Does that mean Kjerstad spends the year in AAA? Elias has said he won’t have players dominating AAA and not get promoted but we certainly can’t count on an injury.

i think Mayo takes the Urias spot at some point this year (both right handed bats that play the infield).

That leaves Norby and Stowers. Should we assume there is not a spot for them without some kind of injury? Looking at the current roster the only spots I see as replaceable are Mateo and O’Hearn who are both playing decently and have value to the current team. 

Hays is the wildcard. It seems as he is now mostly a bench/platoon bat but that doesn’t open up a spot for one of these guys. 

Ok, while I appreciate the desire to see the prospects/young players play (Stowers has aged out of the prospect consideration). However, this whole post assumes that our rotation will be good enough as is, that we won't need to add to the team via trade at the deadline. 

IMO, that is highly improbable. Somebody is going to have to go. Also, this post also assumes that we would get good value in using a prospect in the Urias role, which is the deep bench/25th/26th man on the roster. 

What value does that add to the team and or a player like Norby? Doesn't it make more sense to use that org asset as a trade chip? If Westburg, Henderson, and Holliday (along with Mountcastle) are playing everyday where is the playing time for another young infielder? 

Lastly, if the goal is to win a World Series this year or at least compete for one, why would we be trading/discarding one of our better/consistent bats in O'Hearn?

None of this is to say, that I can clearly see a spot for Mayo as the season unfolds. We need a RH DH for when O'Hearn doesn't play and we could probably squeeze him in for an additional few more games per week in the field (when he is not DHing). And I guess if Tony Taters doesn't hit (which I highly doubt despite his slow start to the season), he could be replaced by Kjerstad? But the other two, there is no place on the team for them. And that is not a problem. It gives us good trade ammo.

Even if we (for whatever reason) needed to trade Kjerstad because of his value as opposed to Stowers and then promote Stowers as the eventual replacement for Sanatander, IMO that would be okay as well.

But there is very little chance that all of these AAA guys end up playing significant roles on the Baltimore Orioles.

[Orioles0615]

6 minutes ago, TheWall said:

The idea that we have 4 players "ready" to be promoted is probably flawed to begin with. Mayo is still striking out a ton and doesn't have a position that he can play at a Major League level. He's an awesome prospect, but he needs more time before he can come in and contribute to a winning team. 

Stowers could be promoted, but beyond his early power surge he's batting .263 with a .333 OBP. I'm not entirely convinced he'll ever be an above average Major League regular. I don't think he provides anything over the options we currently have on the roster. 

Norby's bat seems ready, but he's defensively limited. They've been trying to give him reps in the OF, but I doubt he's ready to play there regularly. He could hypothetically be used as a DH against LHP for now, but we might be better off letting him get more comfortable in LF / RF. 

Kjerstad is the most ready to help right now, but he's blocked by Santander, O'Hearn and Cowser. We could move on from Urias, but that would limit our ability to use Mateo as a pinch runner. Would probably make more sense to bring up Norby in that case to give us more defensive flexibility. I do think it's possible that he could be better than some of our regulars by the end of the season, but it's a really tough call to move on from one of those guys on take away their ABs for a rookie. I was worried about a similar situation with Cowser, but he seized the opportunity when Hays started slow. 

While I agree. I do wonder what the ponint of Mateo is when he doesn't actually steal. He just dances around the base like Freddy Astaire

[Aristotelian]

Norby and Mayo are both Rule 5 eligible in December, so we will at least see them traded or on the 40 man roster by opening day of next year!

I do think Norby could replace Urias soon, but even that feels a bit like an under-utilization since Urias is mostly a pinch hitter/defensive replacement at this point, and Westburg isn't going anywhere. Then again, should there be an injury to Holliday/Gunnar, we would be very happy to have a guy like Norby ready to step up. Hate to plan on something like that, but these things do happen.

[interloper]

8 minutes ago, TheWall said:

The idea that we have 4 players "ready" to be promoted is probably flawed to begin with. Mayo is still striking out a ton and doesn't have a position that he can play at a Major League level. He's an awesome prospect, but he needs more time before he can come in and contribute to a winning team. 

Stowers could be promoted, but beyond his early power surge he's batting .263 with a .333 OBP. I'm not entirely convinced he'll ever be an above average Major League regular. I don't think he provides anything over the options we currently have on the roster. 

Norby's bat seems ready, but he's defensively limited. They've been trying to give him reps in the OF, but I doubt he's ready to play there regularly. He could hypothetically be used as a DH against LHP for now, but we might be better off letting him get more comfortable in LF / RF. 

Kjerstad is the most ready to help right now, but he's blocked by Santander, O'Hearn and Cowser. We could move on from Urias, but that would limit our ability to use Mateo as a pinch runner. Would probably make more sense to bring up Norby in that case to give us more defensive flexibility. I do think it's possible that he could be better than some of our regulars by the end of the season, but it's a really tough call to move on from one of those guys on take away their ABs for a rookie. I was worried about a similar situation with Cowser, but he seized the opportunity when Hays started slow. 

Good post and I basically agree with everything. I will quibble with Norby - I think he is a little better OF than people might think. Think Holliday at 2B - room for improvement, but plenty capable. The second Hays goes down with an injury, it's Norby I'm calling up, not Kjerstad, to provide that RH OF bat. 

[Bemorewins]

22 minutes ago, Fiver6565 said:

Urias is a defensive replacement and occasional pinch hitter. That will not be Mayo’s role. Urias may be blocking Mayo’s roster spot but Westburg is the real reason Mayo doesn’t need to be here yet. That and his D at third is not yet adequate, and there’s also currently no need at first. 
 

I think Mayo stays down most of the year and gets the Gunnar cup of coffee in late August at best. Then next year he’s the fav for starting 3B, provided he improves his defense during this last year in AAA. Westburg becomes basically a fifth infield ‘starter’. 

I keep hearing this "defensive replacement" thing about Urias. And I just don't get it. None of Gunnar, Westburg, or Holliday are guys that you want to replace and take reps away from. They are your mainstays.

Also, unless Mayo's defense is better than Westburg's (this year or next - which is probably not very likely) his role on this team will probably be primary Dh next year (when O'Hearn is gone) with a few starts a week in the field. I can't see a need for a "5th infield starter" role with guys who are going to be every day (140- 150+ games per year players).

[interloper]

2 minutes ago, Orioles0615 said:

While I agree. I do wonder what the ponint of Mateo is when he doesn't actually steal. He just dances around the base like Freddy Astaire

The lack of aggression on the bases in re: to stealing this year is kind of baffling to me. Like, Cowser has been one of the more aggressive guys out there. Milwaukee ran circles around us, but it's not like we don't have speed also. 

[TheWall]

4 minutes ago, Orioles0615 said:

While I agree. I do wonder what the ponint of Mateo is when he doesn't actually steal. He just dances around the base like Freddy Astaire

He's been hitting LHP pretty well in '23 / '24. He's a pretty damn useful bench player given our roster construction.