Who Should Be Extension Priority #1?

[sportsfan8703]

I’m going with Burnes. Pitching can shut down hitting. We have multiple bat options in the mlb/minors that can carry a lineup 1-9.  We don’t have anywhere near a Burnes replacement. 

[dystopia]

Gunnar. Burnes has made it clear he’s not extending unless it’s a ridiculous overpay. 

[interloper]

I've always liked Adley as our first foray into extensions. I think it's the path of least resistance and an easy way to start spending some money. 

[Sports Guy]

Gunnar, Holliday, Adley and no thanks to Burnes in that order.

[Fiver6565]

It’s Gunnar and it’s not particularly close for me. He’s the best of these guys IMO. I’m dubious that either he or Holliday are even interested in discussing one though. 

[Pickles]

I get that Adley is older and probably won't have as long a career as Gunnar or Holliday, but I chose him for a couple reasons:

1) He will already be in arb 1 next year.  He's the closest to FA and the closer you get the more incentivized you are to test it out rather than extend.  If we don't extend him after this season, we'll lose more and more leverage.

2) I think he's underrated.  I don't think traditional stats like WAR can fully evaluate his true value.  This team was a historical pit of disaster before Adley showed up; since then over two years and three seasons, they've basically been 100 win team.  That isn't ALL Adley, but there's something to that.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Fiver6565 said:

It’s Gunnar and it’s not particularly close for me. He’s the best of these guys IMO. I’m dubious that either he or Holliday are even interested in discussing one though. 

I will keep saying it but either say no to an extension if the right deal is on the table.

Im also not sure I agree he’s the best..he is today but not sure that will be the case long term.  

Edited April 19 by Sports Guy

[glenn__davis]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Gunnar, Holliday, Adley and no thanks to Burnes in that order.

Agree whole-heartedly on Gunnar and Burnes.  

Holliday vs. Adley is a tough call.  Adley loses a fair amount due to being a catcher but I still think there's a level that he hasn't unlocked yet.  Right now I think I'd take him over Holliday, but ask me again at the end of this year.

[Fiver6565]

I also think this topic/poll is incomplete without Grayson being included. Certainly an argument for locking him up first. 

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, glenn__davis said:

Agree whole-heartedly on Gunnar and Burnes.  

Holliday vs. Adley is a tough call.  Adley loses a fair amount due to being a catcher but I still think there's a level that he hasn't unlocked yet.  Right now I think I'd take him over Holliday, but ask me again at the end of this year.

The problem with Adley is that you are going to have to extend him until he’s 33-35 years old.

His bat is good but not great…or to say it a different way, I think we will want a better bat at first or DH than what 32-35 y/o Adley gives you.

I will still extend him because I think he’s the most important player on the team and will stay that way for a long time but he’s a distant third for me because of his age and position.

Edited April 19 by Sports Guy

[Pickles]

2 minutes ago, Fiver6565 said:

I also think this topic/poll is incomplete without Grayson being included. Certainly an argument for locking him up first. 

I think that would be a pretty hard argument to make.  We have him cost-controlled for five years AFTER this one.

That's plenty for a pitcher.

[Bemorewins]

This is a good question.

IMO - You try with all 4 and see who's interested.

Gunnar is obviously a superstar talent who is ascending at age 22. He already owns a sliver slugger and a ROY award. He also has Scott Boras for an agent. So I doubt there would be any discount on their end. Which is fine by me because we have a bilionaire owner, a growing/more engaged fanbase, who hasn't paid ANYONE in years. I.e. we should definitely have the money. I would love it if we did everything we could to make Gunnar an Oriole for at least the next 10 years.

Adley is older at 25, but he arrived first. (If that matters?) Obviously at his position, you don't want to go as long with the deal. But he is closer to FA and the price will continue to go up. As the team leader, you would like for him to stick around.

Burnes is probably the most valuable/most irreplaceable, in that he is the most rare commodity, an actual game #1 type starter, where no matter the matchup/opposing pitcher, we are never at a competitive disadvantage (plus he has experience). This is not to say that Grayson is not a budding ace in his own right. But you would like a few top notch pitchers to give yourself the best odds to go all the way in October. Burnes, (a healthy Bradish if such a thing is realistic), and Grayson ALONG with this lineup is a good recipe for post season success against ANY opponent (including the Dodgers or Braves).

I would love to extend Holliday, but again the agent is Boras and the dad is a very wealthy former big leaguer, so there wil be no discounts there. I don't think it would be the best for team morale if we pursued an extension for Holliday first and bypassed Henderson and Rutschman. They are more accomplished players to this point. And it would be likely for them (if they were open to an extension) to harbor feelings of resentment with the rationale of "what has he done (Holliday) compared to me?"

[Bemorewins]

10 minutes ago, Fiver6565 said:

It’s Gunnar and it’s not particularly close for me. He’s the best of these guys IMO. I’m dubious that either he or Holliday are even interested in discussing one though. 

It's going to take a market deal at minimum and maybe even a record deal to entice them given who the agent is. But PLENTY of other young stars have extended. The Witt deal would be the comp/starting point for Gunnar.

[Bemorewins]

19 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Gunnar, Holliday, Adley and no thanks to Burnes in that order.

How would you replace him next year? Most likely that would involve a big time trade and giving up a serious prospect or 2. Or signing another FA who is not as good as Burnes.

[CaptainRedbeard]

My concern with extending Burnes is not so much his age, he’s got a lot going for him that should allow him to age well. He’s not overly reliant on velocity and has really great command, elite ability for spin, and could lean into throwing more sinkers/curves/sliders and fewer cutters than he does now. He also been a really durable SP his whole career. He checks a lot of boxes, even if he’s unlikely to ever be the 7 WAR pitcher he was once.

Pitchers like Burnes can remain really effective into their mid-30s.

The concern is just how much he’ll cost, for how long and the potential for injury for any pitcher.  Pretty good chance he finishes in the Cy Young running this year and is going to want something around Gerrit Cole’s deal. I don’t think he signs an extension that doesn’t exceed that anyway, so he’s really going to just be a free agency signing. Burnes blowing out his arm on a $300M deal (or even “just” a $200M deal, which I think is the floor of what he’ll get if he performs as expected this year) could be pretty crippling to the Orioles, and I have a hard time believing the Orioles are going to outbid the big markets clubs for him.