Who Should Be Extension Priority #1?

[foxfield]

I’d make a run at it in the order of Gunner/Adley and then Holliday. I’m not unwilling to do something with Burnes but I think I’d be out before he says yes. 
 

I would also try to do incentives to make deals more lucrative. Like the deal Seattle did with Julio Rodriguez. 
 

I think going that long without incentives is unwise and giving opt outs only to the player is financial folly. 

Edited April 19 by foxfield

[Warehouse]

Adley by default (though not sure if he’d prefer to be west coast long term).

I don’t expect Gunnar, Corbin, or Jackson to be viable extension options.  I know there are some examples of Boras clients extending like Strasbourg and Carlos Gomez, but it’s rare and I can’t see Elias pulling the trigger on what it would take to get one of those deals done.  

[CaptainRedbeard]

The second question is - what extensions can the Orioles do with guys other than these 4, who are not Boras clients? Don’t want to rehash the “Boras clients don’t extend” debate, but let’s assume whatever they can do with these 4 doesn’t impact the ability to do other extensions. 

Grayson: With 5 years of control after this one, it would have to be something like 6 years + a couple option years. Possible, but not super high priority. 

Bradish: Entirely TBD on how he returns from injury, and even then a bit of the same question as Grayson with so much control remaining. 

Westburg, Cowser and Kjerstad: Lumping them all together because I think it’s similar considerations. At their ages when their years of control expire, I don’t think it really makes sense. All 3 have been phenomenal to start the year but still have significant question marks about their games (really high whiff rates and not great K/BB for Westburg and Cowser, Kjerstad’s defense, chase rate and of course not yet facing MLB yet).

Mayo and Basallo: Given their ages they are going to be the best candidates, IMO. However, it’s premature now for obvious reasons, particularly with the major questions about how much defensive value they are going to provide at the MLB level. 

Unfortunately I have a hard time seeing any extensions happening in the near future, even if Elias and Rubenstein have all the best intentions of wanting to do them. 

[Warehouse]

I wouldn’t be surprised if Westburg or Cowser (pending a bit more sample size of success) are the first extensions.

[tntoriole]

Maybe Darth Vader retires before Gunnar hits the market .. this article is a tease .. vague comments by Jim Callis.. still he is 71 

 

https://www.essentiallysports.com/mlb-baseball-news-exclusive-scott-boras-set-to-retire-next-year/

Edited April 19 by tntoriole

[Philip]

47 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I think that would be a pretty hard argument to make.  We have him cost-controlled for five years AFTER this one.

That's plenty for a pitcher.

Grayson is only 24, and he has only 184 innings on his arm. He would hit free agency when he’s 29 which means that in the best of all possible worlds he’s got another four years or so. Given how rare excellent pitching is, I think giving him a 10 year extension right now is great. It expires when he’s 34, and if he turns into Justin Verlander, he can get another big contract, but if he only puts up 3WAR per season between now and then, he’ll still get a huge contract.

I think Gunnar is the guy to extend from among the list(although I agree with all the arguments about Adley )but Rodriguez is the most important guy to lock down.

also, he has been in the system, longest, and signing him to an extension will send a meaningful signal to the other guys.

Edited April 19 by Philip
Addendum

[DenPA2002]

If we don't extend Gunner, what does that say to the rest of the team and AAA guys about the dedication to winning and becoming a superstar? What does it say to the fan base?

Get it done. 

 

[ChuckS]

Understanding that we can't extend everyone to a massive contract or maybe even more than one player, I don't see how anyone can choose a pitcher as their number one priority given the amount of risk involved. 

Adley is great.  But he's a catcher who is less likely to be productive into his 30s.  We have another catching phenom on the way. 

Give me the sure thing.  Gimme the stud SS who has yet to even hit his prime. 

Gunnar is the easy call here, although JH could quickly make the argument for himself. 

Edited April 19 by ChuckS

[Jim'sKid26]

Gunnar. Highest reward to risk investment. Scott Boras notwithstanding.

[Aristotelian]

Gunnar.  Burnes would be great but there is inherent risk there and the dollars would be enormous. Adley is almost certain to start declining after age 30 if not earlier. Holliday may have the biggest incentive right now due to his slow start and lack of guaranteed dollars.

Bradish, Grayson, and Cowser are also interesting possibilities.

[Dunk35]

Its obviously not my money but Gunnar is pretty much already a superstar at age 22. He is the obvious answer. The kid breathes baseball and you can tell he wants to be great. Plays a premium position and has the athleticism that will age well(even if he hss to move off SS at age 30ish). 
 

Id give him a 15 year extension and make him the face of the Organization. 

[MTMan13]

If I’m writing the checks, I test out Gunnar, Holliday, Cowser, and Adley in that order. 

IMO Gunnar is the obvious choice. Not because others aren’t deserving, but because Gunnar has the potential to get MUCH more expensive than he would be to extend today. Hes a realistic MVP candidate, plays great defense at a premium position, and will hit FA at 27.  The Witt contract at 11/288 ($26mm aav) as a starting point is actually a great DEAL relative to the average of the top 5 3B / SS contracts, which all orbit $30-$35mm AAV, and before any natural inflation over the next years of team control.

Said differently, we would likely save $5-10mm per year by extending Gunnar now, which seems like a no brainer to me.  

I don’t think the value of Burnes / Adley (finished products, too close to FA), or Holliday (generationally wealthy family) will change much between now and the decision point. Gunnar’s will only go up .

Cowser wasn’t mentioned, and it’s probably not realistic for chemistry reasons until at least Santander has hit FA, but we may be looking at a 35 HR type of bat with solid defense. I’d like to lock that up. 

 

[Too Tall]

Make the wife happy - Gunner. Priority one, but........ There's the Boras thing and I'm not holding my breath. Of the choices given, he'd be the safest re risk/reward IMHO. Holliday will be good but, in my opinion, Gunner is in a different class - like MVP class.

[Pickles]

1 hour ago, Philip said:

Grayson is only 24, and he has only 184 innings on his arm. He would hit free agency when he’s 29 which means that in the best of all possible worlds he’s got another four years or so. Given how rare excellent pitching is, I think giving him a 10 year extension right now is great. It expires when he’s 34, and if he turns into Justin Verlander, he can get another big contract, but if he only puts up 3WAR per season between now and then, he’ll still get a huge contract.

I think Gunnar is the guy to extend from among the list(although I agree with all the arguments about Adley )but Rodriguez is the most important guy to lock down.

also, he has been in the system, longest, and signing him to an extension will send a meaningful signal to the other guys.

Correct me if I'm wrong, and it's been said a couple times in this thread, but we have Grayson for 5 more years AFTER this one.  He didn't get a full year of service time last year and won't be a FA until after 2029.

IF he turns into Justin Verlander, it would be really beneficial to sign him an extension asap.

However, almost any other outcome, an extension does little for the Orioles.  That we have to resort to the supposed psychological advantages it would supposedly grant, I think is pretty good evidence of that.

[interloper]

8 minutes ago, Too Tall said:

Make the wife happy - Gunner. Priority one, but........ There's the Boras thing and I'm not holding my breath. Of the choices given, he'd be the safest re risk/reward IMHO. Holliday will be good but, in my opinion, Gunner is in a different class - like MVP class.

I'm gonna tell your wife you're spelling her favorite player's name wrong. Look out!!