Predict Hays’ OPS for the remainder of 2024 once he returns

[Frobby]

Seems like a lot of posters think Hays is done as a productive MLB player, so I’m asking posters to go on record with how he’ll do for the rest of 2024.  For purposes of my question, performance year to date won’t be included.

For convenience, here are Hays’ pages from BB-Ref and Baseball Savant.  He’s 28 years old, and has a career OPS of .740 (.769, .719 and .769 in 2021-23).  Last year, he slumped in the second half, posting a .667 OPS after the all star break.  This year, he had a .539 OPS in 35 PA in spring training and then a .311 OPS in 50 PA prior to going on the IL.  His batted ball data has been awful.

So what do you say?  Washed up?  Small sample size fluke?  Illness?  What will Hays do when he returns?
 

[RZNJ]

.700-750 OPS

That will be mostly against LHP though.

[Moose Milligan]

I'm not sure what it'll be but I don't think it'll be much.  I'm just looking forward to seeing people whine about him being in the lineup when they were so confident that he was better than McKenna.  Should be a good time!

[ChosenOne21]

Given that he has historically tailed off  in the second half and on the off chance he is done as a regular, I went with .650-.699

[spleen1015]

I hope he comes back as his old self. Any positive contribution is a good thing.

.700-.749

[Sports Guy]

I said 750-799 but that’s not really the range for me. I would be more 725-775.

[interloper]

9 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I'm not sure what it'll be but I don't think it'll be much.  I'm just looking forward to seeing people whine about him being in the lineup when they were so confident that he was better than McKenna.  Should be a good time!

I don't see how anyone could whine about him starting vs LHP when Mullins is looking closer to his AA demotion self than his 30/30 self these days. I am pretty eager to see Hays back here. The bar is extremely low vs LHP. 

[Say O!]

For reference, Hays numbers against LHP

2023 v LHP was .786 OPS (.769 OPS career)

2023 v LHP starter was .896 OPS (.782 OPS career)

 

[Aristotelian]

I see no reason he shouldn't hit his career average .740. Maybe a little lower to account for the league environment trending down. He has hit well in his rehab assignment and Hyde has the flexibility to give him advantageous matchups. He should get all of McKenna's AB's plus stealing a few here and there from Cowser and Santander.

[Jagwar]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

.700-750 OPS

That will be mostly against LHP though.

Does Stowers has good reverse splits? I hate having Kjerstad as the odd man out, but what about playing Hays/Stowers against LH and Mullins/Cowser against RHs. If Mullins continues to slump could Cowser also share time in CF?

[RZNJ]

21 minutes ago, Jagwar said:

Does Stowers has good reverse splits? I hate having Kjerstad as the odd man out, but what about playing Hays/Stowers against LH and Mullins/Cowser against RHs. If Mullins continues to slump could Cowser also share time in CF?

So far this year Stowers splits are even.  He’s hitting .205 off of LHP and .244 overall.

[DrungoHazewood]

.740. Maybe a bit higher if he's mostly playing against lefties.

Unless he's still nursing some nagging injuries, then less.

[DrungoHazewood]

56 minutes ago, Jagwar said:

Does Stowers has good reverse splits? I hate having Kjerstad as the odd man out, but what about playing Hays/Stowers against LH and Mullins/Cowser against RHs. If Mullins continues to slump could Cowser also share time in CF?

No one has reverse splits. Or so few do that it's helpful to just act like no one does, because by the time they've piled up enough PAs to figure out if someone really is the exception (instead of random variation) that proves the rule they're 35 and nobody cares anymore.

Looking at a month or two of L/R splits from a single batter is about as meaningful as using a Ouija Board.

Edited May 10 by DrungoHazewood

[jabba72]

I'm assuming he'll be in a strict platoon when he does play so I'll go with .800 or higher. 

[Jagwar]

3 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

No one has reverse splits. Or so few do that it's helpful to just act like no one does, because by the time they've piled up enough PAs to figure out if someone really is the exception (instead of random variation) that proves the rule they're 35 and nobody cares anymore.

Looking at a month or two of L/R splits from a single batter is about as meaningful as using a Ouija Board.

I'll just take the politician's path.... I misspoke. 

Perhaps a better question would have been... Is Stowers likely to do better against LHs than Mullins? Perhaps a 700 OPS or better?