This offensive style is not sustainable

[Ripken]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

That's a 2 game sample size.

And they could have easily won both games.

Yes.  I was using the most recent data as an example of a concerning pattern.  The offense has scored well over the course of this year but has really struggled the last couple weeks and they are 29th in BBs for the entire season.  As you said, it appears the entire draft and development strategy has been to create a lineup which could control the strike zone well.  I hope we start seeing far more examples of that going forward.

[interloper]

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Huh?

The trend toward more aggressive at bats, which we've seen for more than two games, is a directive.

Trying to pull data from a 2 game series is trying to pull data from a 2 game series. 

News flash, MLB team strikes out a lot over the span of 2 games, highlights following the break!

Alright fair. I think if you're the FO you have to second guess this approach because it's not working for your hitters. Everyone is flailing at garbage and popping stuff up.

I don't really understand the benefit of being over-aggressive. Let's take this series where it's plain to see that Toronto has good starting pitching and a bad bullpen. But due to their aggressiveness, they weren't able to chase the SP quickly, and therefore they were stuck facing Toronto's only two good relievers in Romano and Yimi - in both games due to the rainout. 

So that's a bad approach mixed with bad advance scouting. They picked the most difficult way to try and beat this Jays team.

Edited May 15 by interloper

[G54377]

Hays, Mateo, Urias, and Holliday represent about 15% of our teams PA's (218 of 1514) and have 12 walks combined. Their combined OBP is like 23% or something like that. It wouldn't be a stretch to say only Holliday is really going to be a future fixture of the team and he will/should be a very good OBP player.

[LGOrioles]

They definitely need to walk more but it’s not like they strike out a ton either. This year they’re 29th in BB% (6.9%) and 14th best in K% (22.1%). Last year they were 20th in BB% (8.4%) and 14th best in K% (22.4%). 

In terms of BB%, Adley going from 13.4% to 5% plays a big part. From what I calculated, if he was walking 13% of the time (a little lower than 2022 and 2023), the team walk rate would be 7.9%, up to 24th in the MLB. Other than that, it’s mostly minor decreases from Mountcastle, Mullins, Henderson, Westburg, and Mountcastle. Losing Hicks hurt too (14.8 BB% last year with the O’s) but O’Hearn at 12.3% has been a nice surprise. 

It’s going to be tough to hit their rate from last year the rest of the season if Adley keeps walking at a 5% rate, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we see small increases across the board from almost every other regular. FWIW, the O’s only walked 7.2% of the time in both June and August of 2023 which is pretty low too, but were above 8.8% in 3 other months. So hopefully these are their lower months this year. 

Edited May 15 by LGOrioles

[OsFanInOhio]

I think we need to pump the breaks here a bit. 
 

yes.  walk rates are down, and k rates are up across the team except for o’Hearn basically. That said, we are 7th in ops, and 9th in runs scored despite playing between 2 and 5 games fewer than any other team in the top 10 in runs scored. We’ve taken a more aggressive approach and traded the higher walk rate for more impactful damage when we do swing. 
 

at least according to one site, we have the same ops we had in 2023 - which is .740 across the team. Considering how poorly hays, Mullins, Santander and Holliday all started, I’d say what we are doing is working pretty well. If our OF just starts to approach their career average, that pushes this team higher. 
 

would I like to see less k’s, yes. But if you look at adley for example - he has a higher ops and wrc+ this year despite the decrease in walks and overall obp. The good swing decisions and zone understanding is still valuable in picking the right pitches to do damage to, but the more aggressive approach is paying dividends.

[George Zuverink]

57 minutes ago, Ripken said:

In the two game Toronto series, the O's had 5 BBs and 20 Ks.  Beyond that, everyone except Adley was swinging at every pitch.  That's not going to work. 

Every pitch except fastballs down the middle with two strikes and a man on third  in the bottom of the ninth trailing by a run.

[RZNJ]

Let’s look at this from an individual player perspective.

1. Henderson.  Walked a lot early last year but didn’t hit.  Got more aggressive and hit.  Continues to be aggressive and is hitting even better.

2. Rutschman. Our most patient hitter until this season.  Walking a lot less.  Hitting for average, power, and OPS.    Except for less walks, headed for a career year.

3.  Cowser.  Great walk numbers in the minors.  Too passive last year.  More aggressive this year and, overall, much better.

This isn’t a directive from the FO.  These are individual players finding what works best for them.   The biggest difference, I would guess, is with Rutschman and if he’s going to hit .280 and do 30/100 I’ll take it.

[interloper]

17 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Let’s look at this from an individual player perspective.

1. Henderson.  Walked a lot early last year but didn’t hit.  Got more aggressive and hit.  Continues to be aggressive and is hitting even better.

2. Rutschman. Our most patient hitter until this season.  Walking a lot less.  Hitting for average, power, and OPS.    Except for less walks, headed for a career year.

3.  Cowser.  Great walk numbers in the minors.  Too passive last year.  More aggressive this year and, overall, much better.

This isn’t a directive from the FO.  These are individual players finding what works best for them.   The biggest difference, I would guess, is with Rutschman and if he’s going to hit .280 and do 30/100 I’ll take it.

Yeah, these are good examples of this approach working. I just think aside from Adley right now, the approach has tipped far too much in the aggressive side of the scale. Now we're not even seeing balls struck well because guys aren't really waiting for the good pitch. Or, like in one of Cowser's ABs today, just fouling off the one good pitch of the AB to hit. So they are aggressive, they're missing pitches to hit, and they're expanding the zone more. 

Hopefully a slump. They looked better in April than May. But I just don't know what this team looks like in July if their walk rate is still 29th. I can't imagine that's going to work all season. 

[sportsfan8703]

We just need to be able to manufacture runs based on game situation going forward. We’re young, and need to be able to use our speed in close games. 

[RZNJ]

7 minutes ago, interloper said:

Yeah, these are good examples of this approach working. I just think aside from Adley right now, the approach has tipped far too much in the aggressive side of the scale. Now we're not even seeing balls struck well because guys aren't really waiting for the good pitch. Or, like in one of Cowser's ABs today, just fouling off the one good pitch of the AB to hit. So they are aggressive, they're missing pitches to hit, and they're expanding the zone more. 

Hopefully a slump. They looked better in April than May. But I just don't know what this team looks like in July if their walk rate is still 29th. I can't imagine that's going to work all season. 

There is an organizational philosophy which is probably similar throughout baseball.  It’s up to the individual player to execute it.  No one is telling Cowser to foul off a fastball down the middle and then swing at a breaking pitch a foot outside.   No one is telling Gunnar or Rutschman to swing at pitches out of the zone on 3-2 pitches.

The golden rule is to put your best swing on a pitch you can drive when you have less than two strikes.  Pretty simple.   No one preaches to swing at pitches out of the strike zone.   Now some of these guys have come to the major leagues waiting for the perfect pitch (Henderson & Cowser) and had to adjust.  Adley has probably had ongoing conversations about what they preach and what he’s comfortable with.  I believe Adley takes (maybe it’s changing) the first pitch more than any hitter in MLB.   That’s going to lead to walks but it also leads to a lot of 0-1 counts when pitchers aren’t afraid of you hitting the first pitch.  As we know, sometimes the first pitch is the best one you’ll see.   I don’t know what his stats are regarding 1st pitch this year compared to last.  I’ll have to check.

Hyde talks all the time about having good at bats.  That’s Hyde for not swinging at pitches out the zone.   Easier said than done.   I certainly don’t believe the FO is telling the hitting coaches to tell all of the hitters to be more aggressive.   O’Hearn has been less aggressive.  Mountcastle had been trending in that direction.  I’m sure they would love to see all of their hitters to emulate O’Hearn’s approach.  Easier said than done.

[baltfan]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

It's team wide.

They said they were going to move in the opposite direction, they drafted players to facilitate that.  They developed them and suddenly, team wide, they flipped the script.

It has to be by design coming from the FO.

I get the sense that the belief is that pitchers are better strike throwers now and also more devastating when ahead in the count.  Thus, the theory is if the pitch is in the zone and not unhittable, swing away.  

[baltfan]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

Let’s look at this from an individual player perspective.

1. Henderson.  Walked a lot early last year but didn’t hit.  Got more aggressive and hit.  Continues to be aggressive and is hitting even better.

2. Rutschman. Our most patient hitter until this season.  Walking a lot less.  Hitting for average, power, and OPS.    Except for less walks, headed for a career year.

3.  Cowser.  Great walk numbers in the minors.  Too passive last year.  More aggressive this year and, overall, much better.

This isn’t a directive from the FO.  These are individual players finding what works best for them.   The biggest difference, I would guess, is with Rutschman and if he’s going to hit .280 and do 30/100 I’ll take it.

I imagine it’s a combo of both.  All of these guys get grades on a daily basis re the balls they swing at. 

[Sports Guy]

We also just have a lot of underperforming guys that just aren’t producing and they are up there pressing.

We had been a victim of a lot of bad calls early by the umps too, as was shown yesterday.

 

[Frobby]

It’s always tough to judge things in the middle of a team slump.  Nobody had a problem  with the approach when the team was hot.  I do find it odd how far the pendulum has swung from last year to this one.  

[SilverRocket]

Looking at Chase Rate, the biggest differences I see are Rutschman (great results) and Santander (poor results, he has fallen off a cliff in this regard). Next I see Cowser, Westburg and Mullins. Gunnar and Hays have been more patient than last year overall.

The team has the 10th lowest walk total last year so it's not like we were coming from the top of the heap by any means... it was just a few players who may have made it seem that way. The zone% has also gone from 6th lowest last year at 48.5% to 12th lowest this year at 49.4%, so the team has been seeing more strikes overall.