How much do you care about winning the division?

[vab]

I couldn't care less about the division. Certainly we don't need anymore evidence than the last couple of years to see that winning the division doesn't mean anything once the playoffs start. The good thing for the Orioles is it appears that they will clinch a spot, whether it's a wild card or division, pretty early so even if they have to play a wild card series they will have time to rest guys and set up the rotation. 

[SilentJames]

15 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I look at phrases like "found their swagger" as narratives that ESPN makes up to describe teams who are playing well, similar to how a good team loses four of seven and there's the inevitable story about how their unaddressed weaknesses are coming back to bite them, or wondering aloud if they have leadership issues.

When someone's full time job is to write or talk about sports they need so say something, and people generally don't like endless stories of the form ".575 team sees short-term fluctuations due to random variation".

Fair enough - but I would argue that the last couple of years the Yankees have been in a kind of doldrums (as far as that organization ever is in them). 

But yeah, Soto and Judge will probably both come back to Earth a bit and then we will see how it all plays out. 

[Sanfran327]

I'm not really sure there's a tangible connection between winning the division and going deep into the postseason. So yes, I really want to win the division and go directly to the ALDS. Our bats were ice cold down the stretch last year and the mini break did not do anything to reset that. Texas was hot as hell and rode that wave to a WS title. Simple as that, IMO.

[Moose Milligan]

52 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I look at phrases like "found their swagger" as narratives that ESPN makes up to describe teams who are playing well, similar to how a good team loses four of seven and there's the inevitable story about how their unaddressed weaknesses are coming back to bite them, or wondering aloud if they have leadership issues.

When someone's full time job is to write or talk about sports they need so say something, and people generally don't like endless stories of the form ".575 team sees short-term fluctuations due to random variation".

Here's Drungo talking about his game face.

 

[Bemorewins]

IMO it really doesn't matter much. We are almost assuredly going to be in the playoffs. What matters most is how we are playing at the close of the season (going into the playoffs). We won the division and won 101 games last season as we outpaced TB. And in October (neither teams' great regular seasons matter). And teams like HOU and TEX were playing in the ALCS who weren't nearly as good all year.

[Bemorewins]

Also, I think for most of us traditional/longtime baseball fans, it is still in grained into our psychology (to some degree) that winning the division matters. Because for years (most of the history of the game) that is the only way that you could qualify for the postseason.

However, when you look at teams who do well in the postseason (like last year's 2 WS teams), they weren't division winners. They just got hot at the right time. And truly that's all it takes in a short series format where things like depth are not nearly as important as it is most about top end talent and being able to perform against the other teams best (starters, relievers, batters).

In other sports like hockey and basketball being a division winner is larger irrelevant because of the postseason format. Baseball with the additional Wild Cards has become the same way IMO.

[Too Tall]

If Burnes, GRod, and Bradish stay healthy, we are as set as we can be regardless of division winner or wild card. Will more than likely have to go through the Yankees either way. Just keep winning series and play best ball in October. That's what I wish for. Winning division then one and out means very little except a flag to fly. So to answer OP question - zippo.

[Philip]

9 hours ago, Frobby said:

I can’t tell another person what their standard should be for being disappointed.  It’s subjective.  I’ll just say I think that’s really unreasonable.  I also think your opinion that the O’s have lost a lot of games by bad bullpen management is wrong.  But go ahead, drive yourself nuts thinking the bullpen would never lose a game if only they were managed properly.   

Frobby I won’t say that’s a strawman, but that is a blatantly incorrect interpretation of what I have said.

I have repeatedly said that sometimes you do the right thing and lose anyway, and vice versa.

I have also said that there’s nothing wrong with being wrong. 
But you’ve watched the games too, you know there have been games that were lost because of objectively bad decisions.

I don’t care about Gunnar throwing away that ball in the Pittsburgh series, I don’t care about holiday making a mistake. Things happen.

I care about Hyde Making obvious mistakes. 

Are you saying that not one single game has been lost because of such?

I don’t lose any sleep over it, a game finished is a game past.

But I want to win the Division.

Last year, we won the division, then lost the division series.

I would much rather have had that scenario than to have made the playoffs as a wildcard team, won a wildcard series and then lost in the division series.

No, I’m not kicking the cat about it, and I’m not Firestoning about it either, but I’m not being unreasonable.

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Sanfran327 said:

I'm not really sure there's a tangible connection between winning the division and going deep into the postseason. So yes, I really want to win the division and go directly to the ALDS. Our bats were ice cold down the stretch last year and the mini break did not do anything to reset that. Texas was hot as hell and rode that wave to a WS title. Simple as that, IMO.

I think that over the long term there is absolutely a better chance of winning if you get to skip the first round of playoffs. It's simple probability. If you have a 60% chance at winning any given post-season series, you have a .6^3 = 22% chance of winning three straight series, and a 13% chance of winning four straight series.

Of course in any single post-season or series there's a reasonable chance that the wildcard wins and the division winner loses. But over 10, 20, 30 years you will almost certainly see an advantage from skipping the wildcard series.

It's like asking if you'd rather be a .320 hitter or a .270 hitter? Obviously .320, even though next week the .270 hitter might get more hits.

[DirtyBird]

In terms on banners:

1. World Series

2. American League

3. AL East

So, if we don't at least win the AL, winning the division is extremely important. Nobody wants a stupid Wild Card banner. In fact, everyone should find those embarrassing to display.

[Malike]

1 minute ago, DirtyBird said:

In terms on banners:

1. World Series

2. American League

3. AL East

So, if we don't at least win the AL, winning the division is extremely important. Nobody wants a stupid Wild Card banner. In fact, everyone should find those embarrassing to display.

I'm certain that Texas is embarrassed to have the 2023 Wildcard banner right next to the 2023 World Series Champion banner.

[DrungoHazewood]

4 minutes ago, Philip said:

I care about Hyde Making obvious mistakes. 

Most supposedly obvious mistakes are not really. They're choices based on a bunch of different information, including things fans don't generally know like who's available today, who's nursing a whatever that makes him semi-unavailable, who spent the night on the can after bad crab cake... Hyde has to manage the clubhouse and personalities, and getting the bench guys some kind of playing time, and getting through 162 games, and on and on. 95% of "obvious mistakes" are going to have a plausible reason why they were made that doesn't involve the manager being stupid or spacing out.

And every manager has any number of decisions that some subset of fans will decry as an obvious mistake, so the baseline for whatever manager we're talking about isn't zero mistakes, it's the number that a typical MLB manager supposedly makes. I'll give you a big wad of cash if you can find me a fanbase in any sport that thinks their manager is brilliant all the time. The best you're going to get is "eh, at least he hasn't screwed anything up in a week or two."

[DrungoHazewood]

2 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

In terms on banners:

1. World Series

2. American League

3. AL East

So, if we don't at least win the AL, winning the division is extremely important. Nobody wants a stupid Wild Card banner. In fact, everyone should find those embarrassing to display.

Says the fan of a team that just three years ago finished roughly 122 games out of the 2nd wildcard, and has less than 10 playoff wins in the last 40 years.

You're saying that if the 2022 Orioles had won an extra three games and made the playoffs, only to get bounced, after a 52-win 2021 season, you'd have been embarrassed?

[DirtyBird]

8 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Says the fan of a team that just three years ago finished roughly 122 games out of the 2nd wildcard, and has less than 10 playoff wins in the last 40 years.

You're saying that if the 2022 Orioles had won an extra three games and made the playoffs, only to get bounced, after a 52-win 2021 season, you'd have been embarrassed?

Correct. It would be right there alongside the meaningless 2016 banner.

[DirtyBird]

14 minutes ago, Malike said:

I'm certain that Texas is embarrassed to have the 2023 Wildcard banner right next to the 2023 World Series Champion banner.

I would be surprised if they actually made a wild card banner.