Luis Robert

[Filmstudy]

I have seen lots of clickbait stories and posts that suggest the Orioles should put together a package to trade for Luis Robert, but I question his value to the team as currently constituted.  Let's review:

1. The salary cost of Robert is going to be high given the years left on his contract 3.5 remining at a total cost of $62.5M

2. The cost in terms of trade capital will be high as well and I assume it would take one of the Orioles 3 "untouchable" prospects (Mayo, Basallo, Holliday)

3. His value to the 2024 Orioles could be limited.  He certainly has value at least as a platoon CF vs LHP against whom he has hit very well in his career (137/90 VL/VR tOPS split).  However, the team has Mullins, Cowser, Kjerstad, who are all LH OFs plus Santander/O'Hearn as DH/OF.  So, if you want to use him vs RHP, one of them has to sit and all of them are hitting well right now.

4. Robert has done most of his damage in the big leagues without a good BB rate which is an indicator of potential future decline at worst, but at best means his OPS overstates his value because it's less based on OBP.

5. He's having a sub-par 2024 with a .281 OBP despite a 113 OPS+.  His rOBA is only .325 (league .320).

I'd be excited to have another big bat vs LHP only, but I'm unenthused about having him in the lineup vs righties given the other Orioles options and I'm that much less excited by the high price tag.  In terms of future control, Robert will be 27 in August and the Orioles other OF options now in the system include Mayo, Norby, Beavers, Fabian, Kjerstad, Cowser as well Mullins, Hays, Santander, O'Hearn.

I don't see Robert as the missing piece.

[interloper]

Agree, hard pass.

[Tony-OH]

Agreed, I don't see Roberts being a guy they target for a lot of the same reasons you mentioned. With Cowser showing sings of life with the bat and his CF defense becoming so good this year, Robert doesn't make a lot of sense on this team and certainly not a guy I would send high prospects for.

[Sports Guy]

Well he’s not a platoon guy and if he’s healthy, his salary is really cheap.

I think he’s an ideal guy to add to the team BUT the injury issues are real and the WS (just like the did with Cease although Cease had been better/more durable than Robert) are trying to capitalize off of one year and they think hes worth a ton based off of 2023.  Maybe some team like Seattle or the Dodgers will see it the same way but I doubt it.

[Tony-OH]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well he’s not a platoon guy and if he’s healthy, his salary is really cheap.

I think he’s an ideal guy to add to the team BUT the injury issues are real and the WS (just like the did with Cease although Cease had been better/more durable than Robert) are trying to capitalize off of one year and they think hes worth a ton based off of 2023.  Maybe some team like Seattle or the Dodgers will see it the same way but I doubt it.

Who are you going are going to send down or trade for Robert is he's ideal? Do you bench Mullins? I just don't see outfield as a need. 

[Moose Milligan]

He's never healthy.  It'd be like buying a Porsche and taking it to the shop every other month cause there's engine issues, electrical issues, etc.

[24fps]

3 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

He's never healthy.  It'd be like buying a Porsche and taking it to the shop every other month cause there's engine issues, electrical issues, etc.

They don't make Porsches in England.

[Allan Bryant]

Hard pass from me, we have higher and other priorities for our team 

[Sports Guy]

30 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Who are you going are going to send down or trade for Robert is he's ideal? Do you bench Mullins? I just don't see outfield as a need. 

Hays or Mullins would be in the deal for roster and salary purposes. 

As I have been saying, larger deals tend to have a ML player in the deal.

Edited Friday at 19:51 by Sports Guy

[jamalshw]

I think Robert is talented, but there are at least four guys on the roster for a dismal White Sox team that I would take over him. Obviously, Fedde and Crochet. I'd probably also take gambles on Kopech and Shuster given our needs.  

[Bemorewins]

@Filmstudy that you for the detail on why you don't believe that Robert is a good fit. I tend to agree.

1. Cedric is finally coming out of his funk.

2. (And I know you don't put much stock into what coaches and FO personnel say publicly based on your excellent Raven's content) But Elias just about stated outright yesterday during his media appearance in Norfolk that all of his interest in acquisitions would be as he called it "on the pitching side". 

3. Our offense is already # 1 in the sport as is. However, our pitching has not been very good since we have been forced to go with Suarez, Irvin, and Povich as the #3, 4, 5 options. IMO that combo over a long stretch of time will put a serious strain on the bullpen AND you really would not your chances of defeating multiple teams in the playoffs with any of them getting starts in every round (some times in pivotal/possible elimination games). IMO pitching is the real need/where the weaknesses lie. 

4. I just wanted to give a shout out for your devotion to the belief in platoons...lol... But if the O's did acquire Robert by some chance, there is literally less than a ZERO chance that he would be used as a platoon player.

[gamiliel]

3 hours ago, interloper said:

Agree, hard pass.

Exactly. When you draft all hitters like we have, you then have to use some of them to get pitching, not more hitting.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

2 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

He's never healthy.  It'd be like buying a Porsche and taking it to the shop every other month cause there's engine issues, electrical issues, etc.

If Luis Robert could be counted on to play 150 games a season you at least think about it if you’re Elias. Since Robert can’t be counted on it’s not worth considering given the asking price for him. 

[Bemorewins]

10 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

If Luis Robert could be counted on to play 150 games a season you at least think about it if you’re Elias. Since Robert can’t be counted on it’s not worth considering given the asking price for him. 

I wouldn't waste the capital that it would take to acquire him even if he was healthy. Cedric already plays GG caliber defense in CF AND our offense is tops in the Major Leagues.

What we need is more pitching talent. IMO any prospect capital used in trades should go to acquiring difference making pitchers who can be an asset for series in October.

[Roy Firestone]

3 hours ago, Filmstudy said:

I have seen lots of clickbait stories and posts that suggest the Orioles should put together a package to trade for Luis Robert, but I question his value to the team as currently constituted.  Let's review:

1. The salary cost of Robert is going to be high given the years left on his contract 3.5 remining at a total cost of $62.5M

2. The cost in terms of trade capital will be high as well and I assume it would take one of the Orioles 3 "untouchable" prospects (Mayo, Basallo, Holliday)

3. His value to the 2024 Orioles could be limited.  He certainly has value at least as a platoon CF vs LHP against whom he has hit very well in his career (137/90 VL/VR tOPS split).  However, the team has Mullins, Cowser, Kjerstad, who are all LH OFs plus Santander/O'Hearn as DH/OF.  So, if you want to use him vs RHP, one of them has to sit and all of them are hitting well right now.

4. Robert has done most of his damage in the big leagues without a good BB rate which is an indicator of potential future decline at worst, but at best means his OPS overstates his value because it's less based on OBP.

5. He's having a sub-par 2024 with a .281 OBP despite a 113 OPS+.  His rOBA is only .325 (league .320).

I'd be excited to have another big bat vs LHP only, but I'm unenthused about having him in the lineup vs righties given the other Orioles options and I'm that much less excited by the high price tag.  In terms of future control, Robert will be 27 in August and the Orioles other OF options now in the system include Mayo, Norby, Beavers, Fabian, Kjerstad, Cowser as well Mullins, Hays, Santander, O'Hearn.

I don't see Robert as the missing piece.

We need pitching and lots of it....al I want to see is starters and at least one reliever...maybe 2...we're gonna have to give up a lot to get it too...