What makes Basallo so untouchable?

[sportsfan8703]

Adley was 23 when he was in Bowie. When Basallo is 23 he will be playing in parts of his 4th MLB season. That’s with giving him a full season in the milb before his debut next year.

Adley has a .684 OPS when catching this year. Catching is hard. 

[Il BuonO]

6 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

We should move him for whatever we can get now!  

He’s a bust!

[Il BuonO]

6 hours ago, CP0861 said:

Don't get too excited, or confused. Obviously a sss, of course. Not saying it's the end all be all as a measurement, but he used cold weather as an excuse. So now, recently, in HOT June...after dozens of games to warm up, he's not doing any better. That's all.

Yeah, your thought process is so complex I can’t follow. 

And with all the excitement you’ve started with this topic I’m over the moon!

[Frobby]

6 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

 

That's all fine, but what did those guys do in their age 19 seasons?

Rodriguez and Franco - season wiped out by COVID.

Guerrero - 1.120 in AA, .978 in AAA

Soto - .981 in AA, .923 in the major leagues

Tatis - .862 in AA

Devers - .779 in A+

Ramirez - .754 in A-/A

Obviously Basallo remains way ahead of Devers and Ramirez.  (I'm not sure why Ramirez is even on this list, as it's well known he was a late bloomer.)   But he's losing ground to Guerrero, Soto and Tatis at the moment.   I think it does him a disservice to suggest he will be ready for the majors on their timetable or match their early years in the majors.   Maybe he will, but I wouldn't count on it.  

[24fps]

8 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Basallo isn’t spending over a full year in AAA unless he has injury or performance issues

Everything I've seen from Elias leads me to believe that he's perfectly willing and capable of leaving Basallo in the minors for another season and a half regardless of health issues.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, 24fps said:

Everything I've seen from Elias leads me to believe that he's perfectly willing and capable of leaving Basallo in the minors for another season and a half regardless of health issues.

People keep saying this but I think those people aren’t paying attention to how he has handled several guys as of late and the team sucked for most of the beginning of his tenure, so he wasn’t in a hurry to get them up. 

[24fps]

11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

People keep saying this but I think those people aren’t paying attention to how he has handled several guys as of late and the team sucked for most of the beginning of his tenure, so he wasn’t in a hurry to get them up. 

I'm talking September 2022 and after.  Rutschman got a pass that year from May forward because there was a black hole at catcher and he was able to stop the bleeding after a month.  Gunner earned a long look for the next season after a hot September and was given enough rope in 2023 to turn things around after a very slow first two months.

2023 saw Stowers, Ortiz, Vavra, Cowser, and Kjerstad all start slow in their ML tryout so back to Siberia they went.  Not so with Westburg who produced from the beginning and I think that's meaningful.  You see the same pattern in 2024 with Holliday's demotion and the long leash given Cowser after a really hot April.

In my opinion Elias is out to win ballgames and that's his primary motivation.  He tends to value vets because they've already proven they can produce at the ML level even if it's not necessarily at a star level.  All the fabulous Orioles prospects will get their audition and if they don't produce within a short period of time, then they won't get thrown away, but they also won't be allowed to treat the Orioles as their finishing school.  That's the pattern I see.  It's frustrating at times because I very much want to see the young guys play, but I really respect Elias for his discipline. 

I don't see that approach changing for Basallo.

[skanar]

I did a project many years ago (which I posted about here) where I looked at the outcomes for every prospect from 1991-2005. In that period, there were only 8 hitters with >150 PA in the Eastern League at age 19 or younger (out of 1854 players in the EL age 26 or less overall). Exactly one (Dioner Navarro) had a OPS >.800. Others in that age-19 group included Edgar Renteria (0.717) and Jose Reyes (0.757).

Only 12 hitters at age 20 in the EL had OPS >.800 in that span, and that list includes a massive number of future stars: Ryan Zimmerman, Jim Thome, Joe Mauer, Grady Sizemore, Cliff Floyd, Edgardo Alfonzo, Luis Castillo, Jhonny Peralta.

Basallo's presence in the EL at his age is incredibly rare, and his performance at that age nearly unmatched. High performance at that age does not guarantee anything - nothing about prospects is guaranteed - but it makes major league success far more likely than for other young prospects, and in particular gives the highest chance of future stardom.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

People keep saying this but I think those people aren’t paying attention to how he has handled several guys as of late and the team sucked for most of the beginning of his tenure, so he wasn’t in a hurry to get them up. 

It depends on the guy and the situation.   Mayo spent from June 30, 2022 to July 9, 2023 on the Baysox and from July 14, 2023 to now on the Tides.    Basically, a full year at each stop.  Westburg had 158 games at Norfolk.   

Now I am going to say this for maybe the 25th time: I don't care how ready Basallo's bat becomes, he won't be promoted to the majors until (1) the O's decide he's ready defensively, or (2) they decide he isn't going to be a catcher.    They are NOT going to call him up to play half-assed catcher defense, not even if he's only catching 25% of the time.   They. Will. Not. Do. It.   And if that means he spends an extra half-season or even full-season in the minors after his bat is 100% ready to go, that's what they're going to do.   

[Filmstudy]

10 hours ago, Frobby said:

Interesting.   What position?

Unnecessarily Socratic response, FRobby.

There is no position more important to the Orioles right now than backup catcher as crazy as that sounds.  The incumbent is hurting the team with his bat.  Basallo will some day soon create a great split responsibility with Adley and another big bat at least vs RHP.

2B?  All eggs are in the Holliday basket, but if he can't stay healthy this year and Mateo falls off as in the past, 2 great backup options exist 1) Norby or 2) Westburg moves back to 2B and Mayo is promoted to play 3B.

CF? Of all CFs in the game I'd trade him for Judge (if I could be sure the contract would not screw up the chance to sign Gunnar) and I'd trade him even up for Jackson Merrill who is 21, from Baltimore area, and hitting well for the Padres, but is another LHB.  I wouldn't trade him for Duran, for example, who is 2nd in WAR among CFs at 1.4, has good OPS, but is approaching age 28 despite 4 years of team control.  No way I trade him for Robert as I have detailed elsewhere.  I think the Orioles are better off for now, using some combination of Cowser, Mullins, and Hays in CF rather than trading Basallo for anyone else not named above that comes with a significant price tag.

Corner OF spots, DH, 1B are jammed now with players/prospects who can hit (Cowser, Kjerstad, Mountcastle, Santander, O'Hearn, Stowers).  No additions needed.

3B?  Westburg is having a great year and Mayo is ready and should be promoted which puts pressure either on 3B to move Westy to 2nd or the already jammed corner OF/1B/DH group, but he is a much-needed RHB.

[LookinUp]

20 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

I hear what you are saying and respect the perspective. But how much of this board have you read?

Surely you will (unfortunately) get shouted down by daring to suggest that here. 

Most posters on this board consider that unthinkable and would rather retain all/every valued prospect no matter the cost/ramifications/consequences. 

I actually don't think anyone was shouted down in this thread. All SG said was that you either don't understand the point or disagree with it. Which was true since there was still a divide at that time.

But I just don't think your last point about retaining all prospects is accurate. I think a lot of us see high probability position players as really valuable and pitchers as really risky investments. It's why so many here love Burnes, but wouldn't pay him. 

The truth is that the O's seem to have a World Series caliber position player group right now and for the next several years. Unfortunately, we've had 4 TJ surgeries from within our pitching group, and the reserves are only starting to trickle up now. So we panic that we don't have pitching that is equal to our hitting.

And the big question is how to get good enough pitching, and that's a massive mystery. Do we overpay for risky pitching assets? Many here say no. I tend to agree. I do think Cowser or Kjerstad will headline a deal, plus Norby/Beavers, plus maybe McDermott, Irvin and someone like a Baumeister (probably not DeLeon). I think you can get a really nice arm or two for a deal like that. 

The point is there are ways to do this without giving up a next level prospect like Basallo.

 

[emmett16]

35 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I actually don't think anyone was shouted down in this thread. All SG said was that you either don't understand the point or disagree with it. Which was true since there was still a divide at that time.

But I just don't think your last point about retaining all prospects is accurate. I think a lot of us see high probability position players as really valuable and pitchers as really risky investments. It's why so many here love Burnes, but wouldn't pay him. 

The truth is that the O's seem to have a World Series caliber position player group right now and for the next several years. Unfortunately, we've had 4 TJ surgeries from within our pitching group, and the reserves are only starting to trickle up now. So we panic that we don't have pitching that is equal to our hitting.

And the big question is how to get good enough pitching, and that's a massive mystery. Do we overpay for risky pitching assets? Many here say no. I tend to agree. I do think Cowser or Kjerstad will headline a deal, plus Norby/Beavers, plus maybe McDermott, Irvin and someone like a Baumeister (probably not DeLeon). I think you can get a really nice arm or two for a deal like that. 

The point is there are ways to do this without giving up a next level prospect like Basallo.

 

The panic is crazy.  Of course we need to upgrade for a WS run, that’s the prudent thing to do.  But the panic is just that, emotional thinking causing lapse in judgement.

We are 4th in all MLB in ER given up, 3rd in era, & 3rd in FIP.  The pitching is doing quite well. 
 

I keep hearing that Elias has done nothing about the pitching.  But here we are as one of the elite pitching teams in baseball right now and below is what Fangraphs had to say about the system.  Why are people still saying our organization has ignored pitching? Why are people suggesting trading potential generational talent for mediocre pitching upgrades? 

There are so many interesting pitchers in this system that it was tough to include them all. There’s an org we’re aware of whose scouts need to write a full report on a player if he touches 95 in front of them. If you’re a scout from that team covering Baltimore, you’ve had to write up more than 80 pitchers based on their peak velo alone. The retaining wall of arms is strong in the upper levels, giving the Orioles the pitching depth to contend amid injuries.

 

[Filmstudy]

I'll give you another reason why I think Basallo is and should be untouchable...

Basallo is the first superstar in a new wave of Dominican players for the Orioles and needs to be a poster child for their investment and commitment to the DR players.

Much in the same way many Venezuelan prospects want to ask about Santander, Basallo is going to be a massive star in the DR and along with the Orioles new complex is going to make young players down there want to sign with the Orioles.

And as compelling as this reason is, it's probably still in the middle of my list after his position, defense, offensive potential, and level relative to age (not in that order).

[Fiver6565]

1 hour ago, Filmstudy said:

I'll give you another reason why I think Basallo is and should be untouchable...

Basallo is the first superstar in a new wave of Dominican players for the Orioles and needs to be a poster child for their investment and commitment to the DR players.

Much in the same way many Venezuelan prospects want to ask about Santander, Basallo is going to be a massive star in the DR and along with the Orioles new complex is going to make young players down there want to sign with the Orioles.

And as compelling as this reason is, it's probably still in the middle of my list after his position, defense, offensive potential, and level relative to age (not in that order).

Yes. I said this in a post a couple of weeks ago, and I still think Basallo might wind up being the first extension signed for these reasons (the stuff about the DR, face of the pipeline, etc).

He would probably have to sign before he ever reaches the majors to be the first, but I do think that’s absolutely possible.