(7/12-7/14) What should we expect with the slumping Yanks vs slumping O's this weekend?

[allquixotic]

Over the past 30 games, the Yankees are 11-19, and we are 16-14.

Over the past 20 games, the Yankees are 5-15, and we are 9-11.

We haven't been imploding quite as dramatically, but there are very real concerns of a team-wide slump for both teams. And this week has been bad for both teams, both going 1-3 so far.

Unless a game is postponed til later in the season due to weather, either the Yankees or Orioles will collect more wins than the other in this head to head 3 game set. But how do you even know what to anticipate when two teams, with this much talent but this much simultaneous ineptitude, get together for a game?

[ChuckS]

The Yankees are not that talented of a team IMO. Their lineup has no depth. Only three regulars with an OPS over .700. Their starting pitching was over performing and has now come back to earth. 

Losing Judge or Soto for any period would be catastrophic for them. I can see them being a .500 team or worse in the second half. 

Edited July 12 by ChuckS

[Tbone83]

Judge hits 4-5 HR off Povich and Kremer but the O's still manage to win 2 of 3.

[HowAboutThat]

The lamentations at Pinstripe Alley are loud and very similar to ours. Here’s one:

“You can generate all the traffic you want, but it’s useless if you don’t have guys who can drive them in, the Yankees finishing the day 1-for-9 with runners in scoring position and stranding ten. The 5-4 loss means it has now been a month since they last won a series, going 0-7-1 during that stretch.

It’s not the sort of momentum you want to be bringing into a three-game set against the division leaders at Camden. The Orioles may have just gotten swept by the underachieving Cubs, but they’ll be welcoming a Yankees squad that has offered minimal resistance to opposing starters in recent days.”

The Yankees are scuffling, too. They have similar problems and different ones. Their pitching is scuffling, ours is too. Same for the hitting.

They have a bad manager same as us? Their front office shows up for work in the morning, puts the feet up, and plays Angry Birds, same as us? 
 

I agree with all the worry, but guys, come on… there’s one question and only one question, and that is whether Mike is content with this team as is, or feels urgency to make a meaningful change in personnel.

Even if he does nothing(and I’ll be upset if he does nothing) we are still going to win 90+ games, and be in the playoffs in some capacity.

Relax…

Edited July 12 by HowAboutThat

[Il BuonO]

I expect them to have a chance to win every game, just like I do every time they play. I know it's an impossibility, but they're good enough to have a chance.  

This series? They take two of three.

Edited July 12 by Il BuonO

[allquixotic]

23 minutes ago, HowAboutThat said:

Even if he does nothing(and I’ll be upset if he does nothing) we are still going to win 90+ games, and be in the playoffs in some capacity.

Relax…

You made a lot of good points, but you lost me when you expressed confidence - before the All-Star Break - that we will end up in the playoffs. Do you not remember the 2011 Red Sox? They were 55-35 on July 10, the last game before the 2011 All Star Break. We are 57-36, which is only 1 game better than that.

We are more than capable of a collapse. We could collapse very quickly and suddenly like the 2011 Sox, or seemingly the 2024 Yanks, or we could just under-perform for July, August and September, playing only somewhat under .500 and missing the playoffs due to the strength of other AL teams. If the Red Sox or the Yankees take first in the division, we could easily be eliminated.

It worries me when folks take our playoff run for granted, especially this early. The team has a lot to prove still before we know that we will contend this year.

[vab]

Unless everybody suddenly forgot how to hit, I would expect a double digit scoring game at some point this weekend. That will give them a good shot at 2 out of 3 at least. 

[Just Regular]

AL Active Roster K-BB standing as SP, 17 IP minimum especially selected for one Mr. Gerrit Cole - this is 70 arms as of today:

(67) Povich v. (41) Cole

(13) Grayson v. (29) Gil

(36) Kremer v. (25) Rodon

Kremer being hand placed in his return for the finale hits me a little like data gathering just how badly the roster needs a SP3 option relative to bullpen help.

Gerrit has completed four turns, 50% of Bradish's total as those two pitchers in 2024 try navigating past spring health wobbles.

Yankees have moved Dartmouth golden child Ben Rice into the cleanup spot.     Rice was a late-round college bat commanding a mere $125k bonus that Yankees player development looks like they may have fashioned into something, or maybe he's Jim Traber.

Anthony Volpe has floated down below Alex Verdugo and even Austin Wells in recent days, as he hasn't been able to sustain solving their leadoff hitter question for the long term.

[Aristotelian]

Cole v Povich: On paper, NYY is a massive favorite. Povich has nothing to lose. Hopefully he does not pull a repeat of his disaster last start. Judge will be the key. 

Grayson v Gil: This should be a really good matchup. Grayson had some hiccups early, has been really good lately. Gil had an amazing start but has been more meh lately. He is a guy who has never pitched a full season as a starter. Good K/9 and HR/9 but bad BB/9 and terrible H/9. He will be facing the top HR team in MLB so the key could be turning some of those hits into HR. I like our chances but Gil could bring his shutdown stuff. 

Kremer v Rodon: Rodon has been struggling badly. He has gone from possible CY candidate to one of the worst pitchers in the league and a big reason for the NYY slump. He was shown crying in the dugout and the city hates him. Good opportunity for Kremer to step up. 

I honestly expect 1 of 3 and would be ecstatic with 2 of 3.

 

[LookitsPuck]

The Yankees take 2 of 3. 

Povich, Grayson, Kremer is not a recipe for success. Maybe we nab one, but they're throwing out Cole, Gil, and Rodon. Gil was really good his last start as it looks like he corrected any mechanical issue that was a problem in his previous few starts. Rodon is a lefty, and regardless of how poorly he's pitched, the O's have been mired in a slump from their premium hitters and lefties have been giving them fits recently.

The O's last 4 appearances against lefty starts:

• Justin Steele: 7 IP, 0 ER, 3 H
• Shota Imanaga: 6 IP, 0 ER, 6 H
• Hogan Harris: 5 IP, 2 ER, 5 H
• Andrew Heaney: 7 IP, 2 ER, 5 H

You have to go all the way back to June 25 against Logan Allen, a lackluster lefty this year, for the O's offense to look strong against.

But that's 25 IP with 4 earned runs and only 19 hits against lefty starters.

Cole's control has been a mess, but a get right start against a struggling Orioles offense who is going to be swinging out of their shoes to prove themselves is exactly the kind of situation that Cole can get right by. 

Grayson should be able to give them a chance, but I worry about facing Gil if he's got his stuff going.

That Sunday game is going to feel like a slugfest. Kremer was really bad against the Cubs after a strong start fresh off the IL. But a hot Sunday? The ball is going to be flying and Dean's home run rate is one of the worst of his career so far averaging nearly 2 a game. 

The O's have played so sloppy lately on defense, and that's not good for guys like Povich and Kremer.

I'm just not optimistic going into this series. 

Edited July 12 by LookitsPuck

[O's84]

Baseball can be a strange sport, I would not be surprised by any result.

[Just Regular]

DJ LeMahieu was out yesterday with another day to day thing, and NYY has recalled medium interesting prospect Jorbit Vivas, a Dodgers 40-man casualty from last winter.

[btdart20]

5 hours ago, Just Regular said:

Yankees have moved Dartmouth golden child Ben Rice into the cleanup spot.     Rice was a late-round college bat commanding a mere $125k bonus that Yankees player development looks like they may have fashioned into something, or maybe he's Jim Traber.

Kinda gives me the Kevin Maas vibe.  I'm no prospect expert, but feels like he came out of nowhere and is riding a bit of a heater and frenzy to start his career.

[drjohnnyfever1]

I expect frustration and that will cause tempers to flare...mostly by the Skanks.  I don't think the Skanks have forgotten the couple HbP's of the last series and I think they carry a grudge.  So I expect them to be using a lot of inside pitching.  I don't think we did anything purposefully in the last series, but the Skanks like to act the bully and the victim at the same time.  So if they plunk someone, it's gonna be them using the disingenuous, "It just got away from me" excuse, but with eye to put us on our heels.  I'm not saying anything is going to happen but it would not shock me.

I'm going to say we take 2-3, but it's gonna be a dogfight.  We've played a little better and plus I hate the Yankees.  So I hope we sweep them, but I'm happy with taking two and maybe one in a 27-0 drudging, but hopefully both of them that way.  All three of them that way would be Christmas in July! 

Edited July 12 by drjohnnyfever1

[Just Regular]

Yeah, brush back pitches will be interesting to watch.

As Bradish was coming back, some of us were watching his slider usage.     Gerrit Cole 4 starts along, the Rates and Barrels podcast today had the observation he is using his cutter and not his slider more in his early games.

Thought is the slider is the most taxing on a ginger elbow, and Eno Sarris had context in the past Cole's given quotes about preferring to shun the cutter so it doesn't muddle up distinct fastball and slider pitch shapes.