Here's the thread where you apologize for doubting Guthrie

[RShack]

I think Guthrie's margin for error is fairly slight (going off of FIP and peripherals) and so any loss of velocity and/or movement (and Pitch FX throughout the game showed pretty marginal movement) is a bad sign.

I like him, but when he first came up, his FB was frequently at 94-96 and touched 97 at times. That's not the case now. If he's going to be operating at 90-92, he's going to need to vastly improve his change (in my opinion) to maintain his level of success.

In general, Guthrie is, has been, and will be living on the edge. Mr. Thunderbolt Arm he's not. He's gotta use his head, and he does.

People with less stuff have done well. I expect Guthrie to be adaptable and find a way.

[cindyluvsbrady]

I never doubted him:eektf:

I love Jeremy!:clap3:

[Frobby]

In general, Guthrie is, has been, and will be living on the edge. Mr. Thunderbolt Arm he's not. He's gotta use his head, and he does.

People with less stuff have done well. I expect Guthrie to be adaptable and find a way.

I do too, but it is certainly true that Guthrie had a far above average fastball in 2007-08. Maybe a little short of "Thunderbold Arm," but certainly well above average in velocity. Getting by with average to slightly above average will be tougher.

[KurtCDavidson]

I DVR'd the game and watched the 1st inning on Monday night, innings 2-6 last night. Guthrie had higher velocity in the 1st inning than he did thereafter. He was 91-92 most of the game. However, his location and the movement on the ball were generally good, and his offspeed stuff was very sharp. He got away with a couple of mistake pitches, and he also had a couple of good pitches that nevertheless resulted in hits. Overall, if my worry level was a 9 out of 10 at the end of spring training, that outing took me down to a 3. Yes I've seen him with better velocity and that bears watching, but overall his stuff was pretty good I thought.

I guess I should say that I am LESS worried about him, but still worried at a modest level.

In terms of his velocity and stamina, it dropped over the course of the game. The question is: did it drop more than usual?

Look at his start from 4-6-2008, there is an obvious drop in velocity that accelerates around pitch 50. We can probably attribute this to stamina issues.

Look at his start from 4-6-2009 - not such a pronounced drop, right? That surprised me. It looked like he got tired to me watching the game live. There was also little drop in velocity in his last healthy game.

I think his next two starts will tell us volumes. I'm just still not convinced he is 100% healthy.

[RShack]

I do too, but it is certainly true that Guthrie had a far above average fastball in 2007-08. Maybe a little short of "Thunderbold Arm," but certainly well above average in velocity. Getting by with average to slightly above average will be tougher.

Right.

It's ye olde graph where you've got one curvy line for Ability, another curvy line for Know-how, and you gotta see how they both track...

[WizStorm]

So, how many doubters are left?

[Moose Milligan]

Fitting for some

[Since'54]

When I saw this thread I was thinking of doubters over Guthrie's career with the Birds -- some of whom still haven't said he can pitch in the majors. One in particular comes to mind.

[wildcard]

I think we have to understand what the difference of having Zaun calling the game and framing the pitches is compared to Ramon. That will help Guthrie and everyone else on the staff. Add to that how Izturis plays SS and there is a lot more going on here then how fast a guy is throwing a ball.

[JGuthrie46]

watching him pitch last night, he WAS spectacular.. he was mixing pitches and locations well as Zaun asked for and baffled the hitters inducing groundballs, pop ups, strikeouts whichever he got to get himself out of the inning. His control, movement, and velocity was all on his side.

[Ruzious]

I got the numbers from PitchFX. There can always be variability in the guns, but PitchFX was pretty accurate in showing Guthrie's drop in velocity and forecasting that he was hurt.

I have no idea why there are so many different numbers reported by the various media outlets. My gut feeling is that velocity has become more marketing than science.

As far as Roch's observation that Guthrie hit 94, he did twice. For a good comparison, let's compare Guthrie's start on 4-6-2008 with that on 4-6-2009. In both games Guthrie threw two pitches >94 MPH. So Guthrie can still hit his high; that covers Roch's comment.

If you look quickly, there is little difference in these games. Guthrie's average fastball/slider velocity on 4-8-2008 vs. 2009 was 91.65/82.47 vs. 91.53/83.19. This is good news.

The problem that I see however, is that on 4-8-2008 Guthrie ran out of gas as would be expected at the start of the season. His velocity started high and dipped toward the later innings. On 4-9-2009 Guthrie kept his velocity fairly constant over the innings. For example, in 2008 Guthrie threw 31 pitches over 92 MPH, in 2009 only 22.

What does this mean? I don't know, but I am still worried about Guthrie.

After reading your first post, I was going to ask you, why... would you get so nervous about a comparison between August of last year vs April of this year - without checking April of last year. But you caught on. Watch out for the sky.

[Juanvald]

Ill admit I was doubting Guthrie. So much so that even though I knew he was getting two starts this week, I benched him in my fantasy baseball league. Unless I get a miracle performance today from my players, his benching cost me a win this week.

[Lucky Jim]

After reading your first post, I was going to ask you, why... would you get so nervous about a comparison between August of last year vs April of this year - without checking April of last year. But you caught on. Watch out for the sky.

Here's PitchFX from July 2007:

Pitch Type	Average Speed	Max Speed	Average H-Break	Average V-Break	Number Thrown	Strike Percentage	Nibbleness	Time to PlateFA (Fastball)	92.63	96.5	-6.66	10.35	78	58.97	4.70	0.411CH (Changeup)	80.17	81.7	-6.44	6.38	3	0.00	3.90	0.472SL (Slider)	83.04	86	2.44	0.31	15	66.67	7.00	0.456CU (Curveball)	75.40	80	5.44	-2.67	3	66.67	4.13	0.507

And April 6:

FF (FS FB)	91.58	95.6	-3.85	9.30	53	62.26	5.02	0.409CH (Changeup)	82.92	84.1	-4.27	5.41	16	81.25	5.76	0.450SL (Slider)	83.19	86	3.89	1.33	14	50.00	7.84	0.451CU (Curveball)	79.93	91.9	3.91	-1.91	7	57.14	9.48	0.473FT (TwoSeam FB)	90.57	92.1	-8.39	7.85	3	66.67	4.05	0.411

So, it looks like the change isn't that drastic - he's lost about a MPH off of his "working" and "top-end" velocity on his FB.

More, though, it seems to me that the differential between his FB and Change could use a little work. Though he used it very effectively in his most recent start.

[Frobby]

Following last night's game on Gameday, it seemed that Guthrie was usually ahead in the count and threw virtually nothing down the center of the plate. Almost every pitch was in the lower 1/4 of the strike zone or right at the very top. I'd love to see 2-3 mph more but I am not too worried. 2 wins, 2 quality starts, 2.25 ERA - I'll take it.

[Lucky Jim]

Following last night's game on Gameday, it seemed that Guthrie was usually ahead in the count and threw virtually nothing down the center of the plate. Almost every pitch was in the lower 1/4 of the strike zone or right at the very top. I'd love to see 2-3 mph more but I am not too worried. 2 wins, 2 quality starts, 2.25 ERA - I'll take it.

Bump?

Letters.