Here's the thread where you apologize for doubting Guthrie

[wildcard]

I have not doubted Guthrie. I have projected that he will go 14-8 with a 3.33 ERA. I thought he might have a slow start to the season, which now looks like will not happen, but I know his talent is there.

[Flip217]

On 8/23/08 Guthrie's average fastball/slider speed was 93.19/85.56 MPH.

Guthrie's average fastball/slider speed for all of August 08 was 93.40/84.90 MPH

On 8/29/08 - when Guthrie was injured - his average fastball/slider speed was 91.97/82.84 MPH.

On 9/29/08 - when Guthrie returned - his average fastball/slider speed was 91.64/83.13 MPH.

Yesterday Guthrie's average fastball/slider speed was 91.58/83.19 MPH.

Still not worried about Guthrie?

I was re-reading the game thread yesterday and noticed that people who were watching the game in different ways -- ESPN, MLB.TV, Gameday, etc. -- seemed to have significantly different m.p.h. for Guthrie's pitches, different by three or four m.p.h.

Don't they all use the same radar gun? There can't be four or five guys down there w/ different radar guns, can there?

[KurtCDavidson]

I was re-reading the game thread yesterday and noticed that people who were watching the game in different ways -- ESPN, MLB.TV, Gameday, etc. -- seemed to have significantly different m.p.h. for Guthrie's pitches, different by three or four m.p.h.

Don't they all use the same radar gun? There can't be four or five guys down there w/ different radar guns, can there?

I got the numbers from PitchFX. There can always be variability in the guns, but PitchFX was pretty accurate in showing Guthrie's drop in velocity and forecasting that he was hurt.

I have no idea why there are so many different numbers reported by the various media outlets. My gut feeling is that velocity has become more marketing than science.

As far as Roch's observation that Guthrie hit 94, he did twice. For a good comparison, let's compare Guthrie's start on 4-6-2008 with that on 4-6-2009. In both games Guthrie threw two pitches >94 MPH. So Guthrie can still hit his high; that covers Roch's comment.

If you look quickly, there is little difference in these games. Guthrie's average fastball/slider velocity on 4-8-2008 vs. 2009 was 91.65/82.47 vs. 91.53/83.19. This is good news.

The problem that I see however, is that on 4-8-2008 Guthrie ran out of gas as would be expected at the start of the season. His velocity started high and dipped toward the later innings. On 4-9-2009 Guthrie kept his velocity fairly constant over the innings. For example, in 2008 Guthrie threw 31 pitches over 92 MPH, in 2009 only 22.

What does this mean? I don't know, but I am still worried about Guthrie.

[tywright]

I don't get why people are concerned about Guthrie's velocity. Roch said his fastball was touching 94 during the game.

That sounds like Guthrie to me.

He was working 92-94 in the 1st, but tailed off to 90-92 in the 2nd-5th. He hit 94 once in the 6th (against Jeter or Damon...I forget), but he was tired as evidenced by his FB dropping to 89-90 in the 6th.

[J.D.]

Oh, is this where that thread is? I was looking for it.

I'm sorry, Jeremy. Now, please don't fall apart in August again. Thanks.

[threedaysrest]

I'm thrilled Mr. Guthrie pitched well. I fervently hoped he would. His outing helped put the Orioles in the win column, and that's always a good thing.

I am, in the back of my mind, afraid he might be masking some type of injury--or at least discomfort--that's hindering the Guthrie we've known over past seasons. He's not been himself at all despite the erratic WBC and lack of innings. It's fine to attribute part of his horrific spring numbers to these factors, but not seeing one effective spring outing makes me wonder--a little--if he's hiding something. God, I hope not.

[RShack]

Entertaining thread title ;-)

Too bad more people didn't use the thread to show up and stand up. On OD, Guthrie sure did.

[Frobby]

I got the numbers from PitchFX. There can always be variability in the guns, but PitchFX was pretty accurate in showing Guthrie's drop in velocity and forecasting that he was hurt.

I have no idea why there are so many different numbers reported by the various media outlets. My gut feeling is that velocity has become more marketing than science.

As far as Roch's observation that Guthrie hit 94, he did twice. For a good comparison, let's compare Guthrie's start on 4-6-2008 with that on 4-6-2009. In both games Guthrie threw two pitches >94 MPH. So Guthrie can still hit his high; that covers Roch's comment.

If you look quickly, there is little difference in these games. Guthrie's average fastball/slider velocity on 4-8-2008 vs. 2009 was 91.65/82.47 vs. 91.53/83.19. This is good news.

The problem that I see however, is that on 4-8-2008 Guthrie ran out of gas as would be expected at the start of the season. His velocity started high and dipped toward the later innings. On 4-9-2009 Guthrie kept his velocity fairly constant over the innings. For example, in 2008 Guthrie threw 31 pitches over 92 MPH, in 2009 only 22.

What does this mean? I don't know, but I am still worried about Guthrie.

I DVR'd the game and watched the 1st inning on Monday night, innings 2-6 last night. Guthrie had higher velocity in the 1st inning than he did thereafter. He was 91-92 most of the game. However, his location and the movement on the ball were generally good, and his offspeed stuff was very sharp. He got away with a couple of mistake pitches, and he also had a couple of good pitches that nevertheless resulted in hits. Overall, if my worry level was a 9 out of 10 at the end of spring training, that outing took me down to a 3. Yes I've seen him with better velocity and that bears watching, but overall his stuff was pretty good I thought.

[Lucky Jim]

I'm no less worried.

[Frobby]

I'm no less worried.

Because of the loss of velocity, or for other reasons?

[tywright]

I DVR'd the game and watched the 1st inning on Monday night, innings 2-6 last night. Guthrie had higher velocity in the 1st inning than he did thereafter. He was 91-92 most of the game. However, his location and the movement on the ball were generally good, and his offspeed stuff was very sharp. He got away with a couple of mistake pitches, and he also had a couple of good pitches that nevertheless resulted in hits. Overall, if my worry level was a 9 out of 10 at the end of spring training, that outing took me down to a 3. Yes I've seen him with better velocity and that bears watching, but overall his stuff was pretty good I thought.

You could really see him get tired in the 6th inning.

[Mackus]

Entertaining thread title ;-)

Too bad more people didn't use the thread to show up and stand up. On OD, Guthrie sure did.

Whatever doubts or questions anybody has about Guthrie absolutely aren't going to be answered in one good day, nor will any of the good things he has going for him be negated or lost in one bad day.

To me the biggest thing Guthrie has left to prove is stamina, so anything he does in the first half or first four months really won't prove anything other than he's still able to pitch solidly. He's shown he can be a very good starter for a while and put up solid ERAs, but he hasn't shown he can be healthy an entire season or log a lot of innings over the course of a year.

Guthrie is basically a right-handed version of Bedard. More in-game stamina probably, but similar season-long issues. And his stuff obviously isn't nearly as good. He's an easier guy to root for from a personality standpoint, so he gets a lot of benefit of the doubt that Bedard never seemed to from media and some fans.

[Lucky Jim]

Because of the loss of velocity, or for other reasons?

I think Guthrie's margin for error is fairly slight (going off of FIP and peripherals) and so any loss of velocity and/or movement (and Pitch FX throughout the game showed pretty marginal movement) is a bad sign.

I like him, but when he first came up, his FB was frequently at 94-96 and touched 97 at times. That's not the case now. If he's going to be operating at 90-92, he's going to need to vastly improve his change (in my opinion) to maintain his level of success.

[Frobby]

I think Guthrie's margin for error is fairly slight (going off of FIP and peripherals) and so any loss of velocity and/or movement (and Pitch FX throughout the game showed pretty marginal movement) is a bad sign.

I like him, but when he first came up, his FB was frequently at 94-96 and touched 97 at times. That's not the case now. If he's going to be operating at 90-92, he's going to need to vastly improve his change (in my opinion) to maintain his level of success.

I feel you know a lot more than I do about this subject, so I will keep an eye out. However, what I've always liked best about Guthrie is his ability to throw strike one, and his ability to keep his fastball low in the zone almost all the time. And I saw that yesterday, even if his velocity was a little down. Personally I liked his breaking stuff and change just fine, for him.

[Lucky Jim]

I feel you know a lot more than I do about this subject, so I will keep an eye out. However, what I've always liked best about Guthrie is his ability to throw strike one, and his ability to keep his fastball low in the zone almost all the time. And I saw that yesterday, even if his velocity was a little down. Personally I liked his breaking stuff and change just fine, for him.

Oh, I agree. Of course, the difference could be a 3.60 ERA guy and a 4.50 ERA guy.

Obviously, diminished velocity = smaller margin of error. The reason I brought the change into the conversation is just that I think if he's settling into a low-90s guy, then a change that's more than a show-me pitch could be useful in disrupting timing/compensating for diminished velocity.

That said, by two starts, with regular work, he could be back up to 93-95. I'm not "worried' in any panicky way - I just need more time to see where he is. More results.

I can live with him in this incarnation, though I don't think it's a skillset that's going to bring results like the last two years.