Vance Honeycutt

[Sports Guy]

10 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

I think this is largely the case for them selecting bats at an overwhelming clip in the higher rounds.  

Looking at @Tony-OH's most recent prospect power rankings, you're starting to see some pitchers crack the top 15 and some of the DSL kids making noise...most notably Morfe.  

I do think there's an element of "let your competitors make the mistakes" when it comes to drafting pitching in the high rounds and I'm wondering if he's banking on pitching success in the system coming from the DSL picks instead of the draft for whatever reason.  

I don't think he cares how he gets pitching talent into the system as long as he gets it, whereas we're sitting on this message board screaming at the top of our lungs for us to take pitchers in the draft.  The draft isn't the only way to get arms into the system...and while our system has definitely leaned towards hitters over the Elias regime, I'm looking forward to seeing if any of the arms make a leap into the top 10 of rankings this time next year and we suddenly have a gem or two on our hands that we weren't totally aware of on September 2nd, 2024.

But back to VH (I'm close to calling him Van Halen, or Van Honeycutt) I'm not sure how warranted this promotion is.  I understand the concerns with the swing and miss to his game, they are warranted.  As with any prospect, his first full season in the minors will be interesting to watch.  It'll be interesting to watch what they're having him do in the offseason, too.

The promotion is warranted because he’s a college hitter who shouldn’t be in low A ball to begin with.

They go to Delmarva just to get their feet wet and see some pro pitchers. Otherwise, they have no business being there..not at their ages.

[Frobby]

19 minutes ago, DocJJ said:

Here's what Chatgpt says:

Yes, but what does SigBOT say?

[Jammer7]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

Keith Law had Honeycutt at #41 on his board.

Well, I don’t read Law, as I will not pay for woke Athletic. So, everyone but Law. Yawn.

[RZNJ]

2 hours ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

Interesting analogy. I would disagree only in that Brecht has a much higher chance of injury. This makes Honeycutt a much safer pick. It is also possible that the O's evaluators see the speed and defensive prowess as allowing Honeycutt to have the floor of a 4th-5th OF. 

I think Honeycutt’s floor is that he doesn’t hit enough to even have a career as an extra outfielder.   I see extra outfielder as his most likely outcome.    
 

You’re right about Brecht and injury even though he’s got a clean history from what I can remember.   If Brecht is a total mess, he doesn’t make it at all.   His ceiling is TOR but there’s also a fall back as a power reliever.   It might be optimistic to call that his most likely outcome but I see that as more realistic than Honeycutt hitting enough to be a regular CF.

Now, I could be 100% wrong.  Just going by what I’ve read and the small amounts of video.  In fact, I didn’t see anything I didn’t like about Honeycutt on video but you can’t ignore the stats and what they tell you.

We took Horvath from the exact same school in 2023 with a very similar offensive profile (I admittedly loved the pick) and he didn’t perform well this year and even worse after the trade.   That’s a bad omen.    But kudos to the Orioles for not letting that phase them one bit.   They obviously have the strength of their convictions.

Unfortunately, since Norby in 2021, I haven’t seen one college player, which includes Fabian, Beavers, Wagner, Horvath, etc., look like they are going to be ML regulars.    Bradfield is a different animal and he’s got a chance.

If we are so great at developing hitters from guys with hit concerns, where are the success stories from the 2021-2023 drafts?    If your M.O. is positón players then you’ve got to crank enough out to fill (accomplished but mostly with top 5 picks) the roster, replenish the roster (this is a concern) and have enough to trade for the pitching you didn’t develop.

 

[RZNJ]

7 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

Well, I don’t read Law, as I will not pay for woke Athletic. So, everyone but Law. Yawn.

Whether you read him or not, not everyone had Honeycutt as some slam dunk at #22.  Yawn.

Edited September 2 by RZNJ

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s ironic how certain posters will bash you for questioning Elias draft picks while turning around and doing the same thing. 

Unlike you, I don’t call them idiots or act like I know more than they do.   I’m just expressing why I wasn’t a fan of Honeycutt leading up to the draft.   I could be way wrong and he really develops.   I also realize that it probably wasn’t a great draft and anyone chosen at #22 is hardly a slam dunk.  It’s not always what you say, it’s how you say it and no one says it worse than you do.

[Jammer7]

33 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Whether you read him or not, not everyone had Honeycutt as some slam dunk at #22.  Yawn.

I said everyone I read or heard. So, that would eliminate Law.

I never said a slam dunk. Let’s not get it twisted, which is what you like to do. A very talented guy with a big issue of swing and miss, absolutely. Maybe even a 35 hit tool, as is. It’s extremely risky. The other four tools are between 60-70. He was, by definition, the BPA, which is what I said. Is he the most likely to make it to the majors and have an impact? No, I don’t think so at all. 

The question is, what is causing the swing and miss. I am sure that they did their homework on him and saw what they think they can fix, at least to a point.

It’s a risky pick. But if they didn’t take him, someone would have soon after. A few years from now, if he figures it out, we’d be hearing how the Orioles passed on a great player.

I liked the HS players too. I am a sucker for HS SS and up the middle guys. I wanted Gillen and Lindsey too. Honeycutt was one I thought they might like, and he can develop in a system known for improving hitters with his issues. VH may not have been the best pick when all is said and done, but he was the most toolsy guy available.

I am not defending Elias’ picks here. I see their logic, and I certainly don’t know what they know. But I am definitely not going to take a crap on a pick that has 20 at bats, especially after not playing for two months. 

Edited September 2 by Jammer7

[Just Regular]

9 hours ago, RZNJ said:

I don’t know.   What boom or bust pitcher have we ever drafted?    What boom or bust hitter have we successfully developed?

Does Westburg count?    Only hit .285 in college and "tooled-up college player" was how Elias described him coming out of the draft in recognition of just okay batting record in the SEC.

I'm curious what any following them closer see as the differences between Fabian and Honeycutt.    Honeycutt seems kind of like an even more tooled-up version of the Fabian profile.

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, Jammer7 said:

I said everyone I read or heard. So, that would eliminate Law.

I never said a slam dunk. Let’s not get it twisted, which is what you like to do. A very talented guy with a big issue of swing and miss, absolutely. Maybe even a 35 hit tool, as is. It’s extremely risky. The other four tools are between 60-70. He was, by definition, the BPA, which is what I said. Is he the most likely to make it to the majors and have an impact? No, I don’t think so at all. 

The question is, what is causing the swing and miss. I am sure that they did their homework on him and saw what they think they can fix, at least to a point.

It’s a risky pick. But if they didn’t take him, someone would have soon after. A few years from now, if he figures it out, we’d be hearing how the Orioles passed on a great player.

I liked the HS players too. I am a sucker for HS SS and up the middle guys. I wanted Gillen and Lindsey too. Honeycutt was one I thought they might like, and he can develop in a system known for improving hitters with his issues. VH may not have been the best pick when all is said and done, but he was the most toolsy guy available.

I am not defending Elias’ picks here. I see their logic, and I certainly don’t know what they know. But I am definitely not going to take a crap on a pick that has 20 at bats, especially after not playing for two months. 

I don’t equate highest ceiling with BPA nor do most ML draft rooms, apparently, otherwise Honeycutt and Brecht both would have gone a lot higher.   You can argue that he was BPA and the Orioles apparently thought so.   That doesn’t make it a fact.

”Honeycutt was, without any doubt, the most talented player at 1-22 in this past draft. It was the right pick, if your philosophy is really BPA.”

So, most talented?   Probably.    BPA?   Debatable.

[RZNJ]

19 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Does Westburg count?    Only hit .285 in college and "tooled-up college player" was how Elias described him coming out of the draft in recognition of just okay batting record in the SEC.

I'm curious what any following them closer see as the differences between Fabian and Honeycutt.    Honeycutt seems kind of like an even more tooled-up version of the Fabian profile.

Westburg counts to a degree along the lines of low BA in college.  They’ve gone that route with Beavers, Fabian, Horvath, Bradfield, etc. with varying degrees of success.  However, Westburg only struck out 21.4 % his sophomore year and just over 20% in 74 PA his junior year.    The high strikeout guys were Fabian and Horvath but even Horvath in the same program a year earlier made more contact.

[Just Regular]

The Van Halen homage is good - I think maybe drop the "-cutt" also to align the syllables.

Van Honey.     We'll see if the Jump to the Ironbirds carries him into the off-season on a high note.

[Sports Guy]

2 hours ago, Jammer7 said:

Well, I don’t read Law, as I will not pay for woke Athletic. So, everyone but Law. Yawn.

Law didn’t like the swing and miss. I believe Law also said that he felt the Os were a good org for him to go to and if anyone could tap into his abilities, it would be them.

 

Edited September 2 by Sports Guy

[Tony-OH]

34 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Westburg counts to a degree along the lines of low BA in college.  They’ve gone that route with Beavers, Fabian, Horvath, Bradfield, etc. with varying degrees of success.  However, Westburg only struck out 21.4 % his sophomore year and just over 20% in 74 PA his junior year.    The high strikeout guys were Fabian and Horvath but even Horvath in the same program a year earlier made more contact.

Westburg was always a highly rated prospect and if not for his somewhat slow start to the COVID shortened 2020 season (Hard to say .317/.432/.517/.949 is slow), he might have played his way into the true first round.

As for Honeycutt, he's certainly a high risk, high reward guy with a lot of miss in his swing. Saying that, I'm not going to read too much into a guy who got started up late due to signing on the last day and then went straight to the Carolina League.

While I've spoken before about my lack of confidence that the Orioles have been able to develop toolsy hitters without a lot of success in College (Watson, Rhodes, Carter Young, and Fabian to a degree say hello), I think we have to give him an entire off seaosn to make adjustments.

Now, if he shows back up next year and has a high K rate and not a lot of pop of on base ability in Aberdeen next year, I'll start to have concerns. Right now I would say his swing and miss is certainly too high when facing pitching that should not create that kind of miss consistently. But I also don't know how long it takes him to find his timing. Some guys take longer, so we'll have a better idea next year after a full offseason and spring training. 

 

[Tony-OH]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Law didn’t like the swing and miss. I believe Law also said that he felt the Os were a good org for him to go to and if anyone could tap into his abilities, it would be them.

 

I just don't get why Law and other say this. Who is this guy with big time swing and miss that they sprinkled their hitting fairy dust on and became a good major league hitter?

 

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

I just don't get why Law and other say this. Who is this guy with big time swing and miss that they sprinkled their hitting fairy dust on and became a good major league hitter?

 

I think it’s just the concept of how they have done a good job developing hitters.