Can Cowser still win Rookie of The Year over Gil/Wells ?

[e16bball]

1 hour ago, capyy said:

no stat is perfect, it's just picking which is less wrong... and the dWAr appears much more wrong to me. and the context issue seems relatively minor complaint. xFIP is considered one of the most predictive stats for pitcher success afaik. imperfect but perhaps the best we got? 

Just to be clear, though, fWAR also includes a substantial adjustment for position, including a negative one for Cowser. 

For a clearer example on that front, as the chart posted higher on this page indicates, Carlos Santana had a +14 OAA — which is the source data that fWAR’s defensive component is based on. That 14 outs above average equates to 11-12 (they use different values on this for some reason) runs better than the average 1B. 

So does Santana have a 12.0 defensive value, per fWAR? He does not. That’s because they adjust his defensive value downward to reflect that he’s playing a less difficult/valuable position. In this case, that adjustment comes out to -11.0 runs, as you can see here:

 

So despite apparently having a bona fide Gold Glove season, Santana’s Fielding Runs value (FanGraphs’ equivalent to dWAR) is barely above average, at 1.1 runs. 
 

Any good WAR calculation is going to adjust for position. Being a good 1B just isn’t worth as much as being an average SS or catcher. Just as being a good LF isn’t worth as much as being an average CF. Every outfielder can play LF — only the best outfielders can play CF. 

Where the nuance/context shows up here is with Cowser’s unique situation. Playing LF in OPACY, with all that ground to cover, is not the same as playing LF at Fenway or Yankee Stadium. Treating Cowser’s “position” as equivalent to Tyler O’Neill’s, for example, is not fair. The degree of difficulty is much, much higher at OPACY’s LF, and so the adjustment seems out of whack for him. That’s the one place where I’d say the bWAR value is “unfair” to Cowser.

[Hallas]

4 hours ago, capyy said:

I agree with this.

 

dWar assigning a negative value to him just because he plays LF shows how flawed a statistic it is. Doesn't pass the eye test, unless you just think basically all outfielders are negatives defensively and all the defensive value is in the infield? I'm trying to understand what the argument could be that cowser is negative WAR defensively. 

dWAR is just the run value for defense added with the defensive adjustment.  Corner OF spots have a -7.5 run adjustment, while CF has a +2.5 adjustment over 150 games. 

 

Since Cowser played both CF and the corners they pro-rate his time at each to calculate his defensive adjustment. 

[Frobby]

6 hours ago, e16bball said:

Just to be clear, though, fWAR also includes a substantial adjustment for position, including a negative one for Cowser. 

For a clearer example on that front, as the chart posted higher on this page indicates, Carlos Santana had a +14 OAA — which is the source data that fWAR’s defensive component is based on. That 14 outs above average equates to 11-12 (they use different values on this for some reason) runs better than the average 1B. 

So does Santana have a 12.0 defensive value, per fWAR? He does not. That’s because they adjust his defensive value downward to reflect that he’s playing a less difficult/valuable position. In this case, that adjustment comes out to -11.0 runs, as you can see here:

 

So despite apparently having a bona fide Gold Glove season, Santana’s Fielding Runs value (FanGraphs’ equivalent to dWAR) is barely above average, at 1.1 runs. 
 

Any good WAR calculation is going to adjust for position. Being a good 1B just isn’t worth as much as being an average SS or catcher. Just as being a good LF isn’t worth as much as being an average CF. Every outfielder can play LF — only the best outfielders can play CF. 

 

What you said here is what I’ve been trying to convey.  OAA and dWAR aren’t intended to measure the same thing.   They shouldn’t be mentioned together.  If Fangraphs took its FRV and Positional stats and added them together, then divided that number by 10ish to convert it from runs to wins, you’d have a stat to compare to dWAR.

[Just Regular]

Cowser and Gil's race has some old school/new school to it.    Luis Gil has a lot of Wins, Colton Cowser has all that stuff @e16bballjust said.

I believe the electorate is 30 individuals, including perhaps Roch Kubatko and Jake Rill (to be clear, just making up names there).    It is a close race and this is a big asset a club would like to have.     This is the first CBA with this protocol - I'm curious to see if they leave it as is in the next one.    

https://www.mlb.com/news/2023-mlb-rookie-of-the-year-voting-totals

Ballots for each award were submitted before the start of the postseason from two writers in every city, based on the league covered.

[Tony-OH]

Cowser has not exactly been great down the stretch this year.

That WPA is from his unclutchness. 

Saying that, Gil has not exactly been a world beater his last two months of the season either.

Gil also gets the New York bonus from some in the media so I still think he'll get the nod. But maybe Cowser can pull it off despite the K's and unclutchness.

 

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

What you said here is what I’ve been trying to convey.  OAA and dWAR aren’t intended to measure the same thing.   They shouldn’t be mentioned together.  If Fangraphs took its FRV and Positional stats and added them together, then divided that number by 10ish to convert it from runs to wins, you’d have a stat to compare to dWAR.

OAA and dWAR are two measure that people use to determine if a player is a good defensive player or not. They absolutely can be mentioned when talking defense. They both measure the defensive ability of a player, though they do it differently.

Acting like it some kind of horror to mention them together is one of the more ridiculous stances I've ever seen you take here. 

NOBODY said they measure the exact same thing and the EXACT same way, but they absolutely are two measures people use to determine if a player is good defensively. 

OAA shows Cowser to be a well above average defensive outfielder while dWAR shows Cowser to be more average. I think OAA in this case absolutely is a better indicator of Cowser's defensive ability. 

[Tony-OH]

8 hours ago, e16bball said:

Just to be clear, though, fWAR also includes a substantial adjustment for position, including a negative one for Cowser. 

For a clearer example on that front, as the chart posted higher on this page indicates, Carlos Santana had a +14 OAA — which is the source data that fWAR’s defensive component is based on. That 14 outs above average equates to 11-12 (they use different values on this for some reason) runs better than the average 1B. 

So does Santana have a 12.0 defensive value, per fWAR? He does not. That’s because they adjust his defensive value downward to reflect that he’s playing a less difficult/valuable position. In this case, that adjustment comes out to -11.0 runs, as you can see here:

 

So despite apparently having a bona fide Gold Glove season, Santana’s Fielding Runs value (FanGraphs’ equivalent to dWAR) is barely above average, at 1.1 runs. 
 

Any good WAR calculation is going to adjust for position. Being a good 1B just isn’t worth as much as being an average SS or catcher. Just as being a good LF isn’t worth as much as being an average CF. Every outfielder can play LF — only the best outfielders can play CF. 

Where the nuance/context shows up here is with Cowser’s unique situation. Playing LF in OPACY, with all that ground to cover, is not the same as playing LF at Fenway or Yankee Stadium. Treating Cowser’s “position” as equivalent to Tyler O’Neill’s, for example, is not fair. The degree of difficulty is much, much higher at OPACY’s LF, and so the adjustment seems out of whack for him. That’s the one place where I’d say the bWAR value is “unfair” to Cowser.

All of what you posted is why you have to take both dWAR and fWAR with a grain of salt when it comes to valuing defense. 

OAA strictly gives you how good a player is at his position vs other players at his position. There is no guessing involved. Now could OAA receive some tweaking, especially with infielders, I think so. I don't think OAA is perfect by any means, but let's say Santana did save his team 12 runs and let's say a SS was at 0 runs saved. Why should he be penalized for playing a less stressful position? In the end he did save runs vs a SS that didn't save or lose runs.

I guess in the end you look at all the defensive metrics (OAA, dWAR, DRS) and then make your opinion based off them. I also use my scouting eye and watching most of the games, I'd say Cowser is an above average defensive outfielder with plus arm strength and way below average accuracy.

[Spy Fox]

The race is close enough that the run environment should be a factor. In the steroid era or bouncy ball 2019, 15 W/3.50 ERA might be a much better performance than a .242 AVG/24 HR/good defense. Which is more impressive in light-hitting 2024? The whole league hit .243 this year, tied with 2022 as the lowest since... 1968. 

I'd probably vote for Gil but I kinda feel like Cowser will win it in a close race. And I'm not sure NY bias is a thing in awards voting anymore with the more online media landscape and more stat-educated voters. When's the last time a NY player won an end of season award they didn't deserve? 

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

All of what you posted is why you have to take both dWAR and fWAR with a grain of salt when it comes to valuing defense. 

OAA strictly gives you how good a player is at his position vs other players at his position. There is no guessing involved. Now could OAA receive some tweaking, especially with infielders, I think so. I don't think OAA is perfect by any means, but let's say Santana did save his team 12 runs and let's say a SS was at 0 runs saved. Why should he be penalized for playing a less stressful position? In the end he did save runs vs a SS that didn't save or lose runs.

I guess in the end you look at all the defensive metrics (OAA, dWAR, DRS) and then make your opinion based off them. I also use my scouting eye and watching most of the games, I'd say Cowser is an above average defensive outfielder with plus arm strength and way below average accuracy.

DRS is part of dWAR, the part that’s unadjusted for difficulty of position, and expressed in runs, not wins.   If I wanted to know how good Cowser was as a LF, I’d never look at dWAR, I’d look at his DRS as a LF (he also played CF).   Honestly, I kind of wish BB-ref wouldn’t even publish dWAR, since it’s misinterpreted so often.  You could calculate the Fsbgraphs equivalent of dWAR, but they don’t publish it, so nobody ever mentions it.  

But anyway, I agree that the best approach is to look at all the metrics and not adhere slavishly to any one of them.  And, I agree completely with your sssessment of Cowser.  I love his range, and he gets excellent jumps, but I hope he spends a lot of time this winter working on the accuracy of his throws, which is quite subpar.   
 

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

When's the last time a NY player won an end of season award they didn't deserve? 

Probably 2010 when Derek Jeter won the last of his many undeserved Gold Gloves.  I agree that media bias isn’t a big factor in the awards.  

[capyy]

9 hours ago, e16bball said:

Just to be clear, though, fWAR also includes a substantial adjustment for position, including a negative one for Cowser. 

For a clearer example on that front, as the chart posted higher on this page indicates, Carlos Santana had a +14 OAA — which is the source data that fWAR’s defensive component is based on. That 14 outs above average equates to 11-12 (they use different values on this for some reason) runs better than the average 1B. 

So does Santana have a 12.0 defensive value, per fWAR? He does not. That’s because they adjust his defensive value downward to reflect that he’s playing a less difficult/valuable position. In this case, that adjustment comes out to -11.0 runs, as you can see here:

 

So despite apparently having a bona fide Gold Glove season, Santana’s Fielding Runs value (FanGraphs’ equivalent to dWAR) is barely above average, at 1.1 runs. 
 

Any good WAR calculation is going to adjust for position. Being a good 1B just isn’t worth as much as being an average SS or catcher. Just as being a good LF isn’t worth as much as being an average CF. Every outfielder can play LF — only the best outfielders can play CF. 

Where the nuance/context shows up here is with Cowser’s unique situation. Playing LF in OPACY, with all that ground to cover, is not the same as playing LF at Fenway or Yankee Stadium. Treating Cowser’s “position” as equivalent to Tyler O’Neill’s, for example, is not fair. The degree of difficulty is much, much higher at OPACY’s LF, and so the adjustment seems out of whack for him. That’s the one place where I’d say the bWAR value is “unfair” to Cowser.

Now I'm even more confident that the dWAR is wrong and fWAR is much better here

[capyy]

9 hours ago, e16bball said:

A little funny to have provided descriptions of the hits (“weak” single; “500 foot” HR). FIP doesn’t care about any of that either, so it’s kind of an odd thing to add in an effort to make ERA look bad. 

Come in, strike out the first hitter, then give up three 108 MPH rocket doubles off the wall. FIP thinks you were absolutely outstanding, and it’s a shame your pathetic defense and/or sheer bad luck let you down. Next time you’ll (probably) get the outcomes you deserve.

They’re both flawed. So is xFIP. So is SIERA. So is RA/9. So is WPA. So is xERA. None of them are perfect measures of how a pitcher’s actual performance was, because there’s way too much context and too many variables for any one metric to really encompass. 

But when I’m thinking about awards, for me at least, it ends up having to be about the actual outcomes. I don’t really care what a hitter’s xWOBA is when I’m thinking about MVP, and the same is true for pitchers. Did you get the outs? Did the runs score? That’s the “value” that translates to the scoreboard and, ultimately, to the standings. So I think the B-R side of it is more sensible for awards. 

I definitely take into account the types of factors that you (and other pitching fWAR advocates) reference as flaws. So if a guy plays in front of a particular bad defense or had a particularly high percentage of inherited runners score, I’d absolutely adjust my take to incorporate that info. And I also 100% go to Fangraphs first when I’m trying to figure out which pitchers we should acquire (i.e., for forward looking purposes). 

But I just can’t bring myself say that my Cy Young is just whichever guy had the best ratio of Ks to BBs to HRs over a threshold number of innings. As @Frobby said, it just distills out too much of what actually happened.

I agree with this. The actual outcomes are what should matter most for these season-long awards - but I think the difference even in that setting between Gil being higher WAR and cowser being higher WAR is this defensive metric. 

[capyy]

1 minute ago, capyy said:

I agree with this. The actual outcomes are what should matter most for these season-long awards - but I think the difference even in that setting between Gil being higher WAR and cowser being higher WAR is this defensive metric. 

Though I would say "wins" shouldn't count much - but actual ERA should be huge. 

[Just Regular]

I've once or twice read comments from writers that are somewhat ill at ease with the BBWAA having been enlisted into something that can affect money for players and competition between the clubs.

This may be one of those moments for 2 guys covering the Mariners, Twins, Rays, etc.

Maybe a few of them cast their ballots after Gil got knocked around and before Cowser's 0-fer yesterday.    Cowser was I think only about 1 degree of launch angle off from another HR yesterday.

Today is voting day.

Since 2019, Cashman and Elias have drafted Volpe, A. Wells, Trey Sweeney, Spencer Jones, Gunnar, Westburg, Beavers and the Zach Eflin trade guys with Late 1st/Early 2nd draft pool slots.

[capyy]

It looks like Vegas odds has it as 50/50 right now

 

Both Gil and Cowser have 3.1 bWAR, but that includes the obviously wrong defensive value for cowser. 

Fangraphs Gil has 2.2, Cowser has 4.0

 

I think comparisons relative to others at their position are a great metric too.