Can Cowser still win Rookie of The Year over Gil/Wells ?

[jabba72]

On bbref, I see Cowser and Gil are tied at 3.1 bWAR, so it could still be Gil that wins it. The Yankee mystique that some writers may have might be enough for him to win. Its going to be extremely close either way. Both have solid arguments. 

[Flash- bd]

Won't voters just use the fact that the Yankees won the AL East as a tie breaker? 

[capyy]

57 minutes ago, Flash- bd said:

Won't voters just use the fact that the Yankees won the AL East as a tie breaker? 

I think a lot of us would argue it's not a tie.

 

i'm not an expert and obviously bias but it doesn't look close to me

[MurphDogg]

It comes down to whether voters punish Cowser for his poor performance against lefties that dragged down some of the rate stats (including WAR), or reward him for playing every day.

Ultimately, I am a tie-goes-to-the-position-player type, when it comes to Rookie of the Year. A starter has to be head-and-shoulders above a position player for me to support them for ROY, especially if they make fewer than 30 starts.

[Sports Guy]

I look forward to seeing a hopefully healthy Cowser next year. I think his game jumps up more.

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I look forward to seeing a hopefully healthy Cowser next year. I think his game jumps up more.

Has Cowser not been healthy this year?

[NCRaven]

Given two comparable performances, the baseball writers might be reluctant to give Baltimore two consecutive ROY awards.  Not a bias for or against a particular team.  Just a desire to spread the wealth.

[Sports Guy]

13 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Has Cowser not been healthy this year?

He has been seen, several times, shaking his hand/wrist a lot this year. I think something is going on there and that can effect a lot of things (I happen to believe it effected his throwing accuracy).

Whether or not it’s still an issue is tbd but I think we will hear that he dealt with something for at least some time this year and that it effected him.

To be clear, I think he takes a leap next year and it will mostly be based on experience and overall development but I do think the injury hindered him at times.

[The B&G]

1 hour ago, Flash- bd said:

Won't voters just use the fact that the Yankees won the AL East as a tie breaker? 

This is fully what I expect, so won't be disappointed when it happens. Hoping I'm pleasantly surprised, would be awesome to grab another 1st rd pick and Colton deserves the hardware!

[Mooreisbetter27]

1 hour ago, MurphDogg said:

It comes down to whether voters punish Cowser for his poor performance against lefties that dragged down some of the rate stats (including WAR), or reward him for playing every day.

Ultimately, I am a tie-goes-to-the-position-player type, when it comes to Rookie of the Year. A starter has to be head-and-shoulders above a position player for me to support them for ROY, especially if they make fewer than 30 starts.

This is something I wonder as well.  Would the writer's look at two guys so close and determine the guy who plays every day is more valuable.  I believe I would personally.  Go with the guy who can help a team every day.  With that said, I fully expect Gil to win.  

[Frobby]

34 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He has been seen, several times, shaking his hand/wrist a lot this year. I think something is going on there and that can effect a lot of things (I happen to believe it effected his throwing accuracy).

Whether or not it’s still an issue is tbd but I think we will hear that he dealt with something for at least some time this year and that it effected him.

To be clear, I think he takes a leap next year and it will mostly be based on experience and overall development but I do think the injury hindered him at times.

I did see him do that fairly recently, after I using his hand to brace himself while slamming into a wall while chasing a foul ball.  I don’t think it had much impact beyond a couple of days.   But of course I don’t know.  

I do agree that expect further growth from Cowser next year, especially when it comes to RISP hitting and other situational hitting.  We’ll see.   
 

Edited 1 hour ago by Frobby

[Sports Guy]

16 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I did see him do that fairly recently, after I using his hand to brace himself while slamming into a wall while chasing a foul ball.  I don’t think it had much impact beyond a couple of days.   But of course I don’t know.  

I do agree that expect further growth from Cowser next year, especially when it comes to RISP hitting and other situational hitting.  We’ll see.   
 

I know what you are talking about but he was doing it much earlier in the season too. We talked about it quite a bit on here.

[Frobby]

37 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I know what you are talking about but he was doing it much earlier in the season too. We talked about it quite a bit on here.

I’ll take your word for it, though I don’t remember it.  

[LookitsPuck]

The last time a starting pitcher won ROY was 2016. That was Michael Fulmer with a 3.06 ERA, 3.76 FIP, 139 ERA+ and went 11-7 on a Tigers club that won 86 games. He had a 5.4 bWAR. 2nd place went to Gary Sanchez. He hit 20 dingers, 299 AVG, 1.032 OPS, but only in 53 games. He had a 3.0 bWAR that year. 

I think if Sanchez plays a full year, that's a lot closer of a race, probably with the writers giving him the nod if he could keep that even remotely close to up.

In the last 50 years, there have only been 2 starting pitchers to win the ROY in the AL and 5 relievers. In the NL during that span: 5 starters, 4 relievers.

So, for 100 spots, 16 went to a pitcher, 84 to a position player.

The most recent decently close ROY race between a position player and a starting pitcher was back in 2019. Yordan Alvarez hit 27 dingers, hit 313, and had a 3.7 bWAR. The guy who finished in 2nd place? John Means. He won 12 games for a really bad Orioles team that only won 54 games. He had a 3.60 ERA, 4.41 FIP, 131 ERA+ and a 4.4 bWAR. Yes, he had a higher bWAR than Alvarez and still lost.

To be honest, they really need to give it to Cowser. fWAR favours him a hell of a lot more, bWAR is tied, and Gil only pitched every 5th day whereas Cowser not only played nearly every game (nearly 95% of them!), but he put up a very solid offensive season with a very good defensive season. 

Edited 28 minutes ago by LookitsPuck

[MurphDogg]

21 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

The most recent decently close ROY race between a position player and a starting pitcher was back in 2019. Yordan Alvarez hit 27 dingers, hit 313, and had a 3.7 bWAR. The guy who finished in 2nd place? John Means. He won 12 games for a really bad Orioles team that only won 54 games. He had a 3.60 ERA, 4.41 FIP, 131 ERA+ and a 4.4 bWAR. Yes, he had a higher bWAR than Alvarez and still lost.

Not only did Means lose, despite the higher bWAR, he lost unanimously. And Means threw more innings that year than Gil did this year.