Do you want anyone from the Marlins?

[Stotle]

No, I believe it is important to see a big improvement next year.

It is important for us to have at least 3 pitcher going forward that will give us a sub 4.20 ERA.

I think it is important for us to have someone heading the staff.

I think it important for us to realize that now that a foundation is in place, it is time to augment that roster with long term(3+ year) answers in positions of need.

I think that since we can move some replaceable parts, both vet and young guys, that we can do all of this while still focusing on the long term.

I am fine with the idea that next year isn't a contending year...I am perfectly fine with not wanting a short term option and paying a lot of money and giving up a lot of talent for it....But if you can get guys in positions of need for several years, i am all for that.

Oh and btw, just because your buddy laid out that idea of pitching costs, I am supposed to bow at his feet or something?

No bowing, but I think it's fair point that you gloss over without any thought. It matters. You say $15mios shouldn't be a big deal, but I think we'd all disagree if he blew out his arm with $45mios still owed.

Injury is always a risk. It's a larger risk for pitchers, generally speaking. You amplify that risk when you pay now for performance (the performance that will really matter) a year in the future.

I think signing a Lackey is a fine move if you determine that's what you need -- I just think it should happen a year from now when the team is clearer on what the big needs are going to be. I think we understand each other's point and simply aren't going to agree. I said my piece, so please feel free to finish-up with anything else.

[Sports Guy]

No bowing, but I think it's fair point that you gloss over without any thought. It matters. You say $15mios shouldn't be a big deal, but I think we'd all disagree if he blew out his arm with $45mios still owed.

Injury is always a risk. It's a larger risk for pitchers, generally speaking. You amplify that risk when you pay now for performance (the performance that will really matter) a year in the future.

I think signing a Lackey is a fine move -- I just think it should happen a year from now when the team is clearer on what the big need is going to be. I think we understand each other's point and simply aren't going to agree. I said my piece, so please feel free to finish-up with anything else.

Lackey will be a big need going into 2011, I have no doubt about that.

Beckett and Halladay are FAs next year...No chance they sign for Burnett type money...They will get much more than that.

We will need a top rotation guy...You are very mixed on Arrieta...agree with me about BB...Have said you think DH will be in the pen...And the list goes on and on.

We can't contend in this division with 2 TOR guys and three 4/5 guys...It just isn't going to happen.

We need more talent at the top both now and in the future.

And sure the injury risk is huge...Its all a risk...Here the Orioles are yet again, putting the weight of the franchise on 3 arms...And yes, that is essentially what we are doing..Without significant contributions for at least 2 of the big 3, as currently constructed, this team is going no where.

So, that's risky too.

There is risk all over the place.

[RShack]

But a year from now I have a much better idea of what I have in Tillman/Matusz/Arrieta/Bergesen/Hernandez/Reimold/Pie/Wieters/Mickolio/Bell/Snyder and I can decide what big ticket risk best fits with my organization as currently constructed.

This is right, and I think it's what AM is gonna do.

In fact, AM actually said that's what he's gonna do.

[RShack]

Lackey will be a big need going into 2011, I have no doubt about that.

Beckett and Halladay are FAs next year...No chance they sign for Burnett type money...They will get much more than that.

We will need a top rotation guy...

Well, I don't know if we need if to get one from outside or not.

But if you're gonna do that, then Halladay is the only one of those guys you can count on. Too bad about his age.

[Sports Guy]

This is right, and I think it's what AM is gonna do.

In fact, AM actually said that's what he's gonna do.

But he has also said that wins matter next year and that "the now" is going to be focused on.

If that is the case, low risk/high reward stop gaps and long term solutions should be what they are looking for.

[Malike]

This was a great discussion until SG ruined with school yard bully tactics. Kudos to Stotle and Crawdad for presenting clear, and consistent points and not resorting to name calling and bully tactics. When people with limited vocabularies cannot express themselves in a debate, they resort to name calling, and trying to make their points by making dismissive and snarky statements. This thread exposes that, in all its glory.

Trading what it would take (and not making up ridiculous ideas, that would never happen) for Johnson would be a bad idea as was stated by many others in this thread. FLA is not going to get fleeced, and we have a lot of holes to fill, so a 4 or 5 for 1 deal is probably not a smart move for this team to make at this time. There are a lot of issues regarding health/regression, etc. that make shipping off that many young players for one pitcher a move that AM would not be so knee jerk, foolish to do thankfully.

[RShack]

But he has also said that wins matter next year and that "the now" is going to be focused on.

If that is the case, low risk/high reward stop gaps and long term solutions should be what they are looking for.

I think in many ways this is AM's most challenging off-season yet.

His first 2 were very different in character. I don't know what the hell he's gonna do during this one. I can't wait to see...

[Owen21]

I know we don't need an outfielder, but he sure looks like a nice player !

[mweb]

1. The difference between $80-100 is signficant

2. The difference between selling-out the Yard, popular BAL and 2009 version of BAL is significant

The bottom line is there is no compelling reason to fork out the money for Lackey now as opposed to acquiring a comparable arm mid-season or 2011 off-season. You still haven't made compelling argument as to why you'd prefer to pay a $15mios retainer for Lackey's 2011-14 services as opposed to taking that $15mios and putting it into other organizational needs and getting a Lackey-like talent sometime June through January.

It's simply an easy choice -- there isn't anything unique or special about Lackey as opposed to another comparable talent. This is all not to mention whether or not you'd have to pay extra to get him to move to BAL -- I'm not sure but assume that would be the case.

Yep, it makes more sense to go after one of Beckett, Halladay, Lee, Vazquez, or Webb in the following off-season than it does Lackey this off-season. As you say, it's simply a matter of not basically wasting the first year of the players contract, which is theoretically supposed to be his best. We'll also have a better idea of team needs at that point and if going for it is even prudent.

[mweb]

Lackey will be a big need going into 2011, I have no doubt about that.

Beckett and Halladay are FAs next year...No chance they sign for Burnett type money...They will get much more than that.

We will need a top rotation guy...You are very mixed on Arrieta...agree with me about BB...Have said you think DH will be in the pen...And the list goes on and on.

We can't contend in this division with 2 TOR guys and three 4/5 guys...It just isn't going to happen.

We need more talent at the top both now and in the future.

And sure the injury risk is huge...Its all a risk...Here the Orioles are yet again, putting the weight of the franchise on 3 arms...And yes, that is essentially what we are doing..Without significant contributions for at least 2 of the big 3, as currently constructed, this team is going no where.

So, that's risky too.

There is risk all over the place.

If a TOR guy equals a 4.20 ERA or less, and we need 3 of those guys, we may not have to go elsewhere. I wouldn't be dismissive of BB in that discussion and I think Matusz and Tillman should become at least that good. Then Arrieta and Britton have the potential to do that. Even Guthrie could bounce back and get in that range.

But I don't have an issue looking elsewhere, just don't think Lackey is a good idea, would rather take a short-term risk on Harden and/or keep Guthrie and/or go after one of the many good SP's who are scheduled to become a FA the next off-season.

[Bradysburns]

There has been a LOT of chatter surrounding Josh Johnson on this board, and I must say I have no clue why. Perhaps the most valuable commodity in baseball right now is young, controlled, front-end pitching. All this talk is proposing BAL clear-out four or so legit prospects to land a young, front-end pitcher.

The point of trading for Tillman, going over slot for Arrieta and using a fourth overall pick on Matusz is to develop that type of player, BECAUSE it's so expensive to try and get him otherwise.

BAL's m.o. has to be to rely on the young pitching already in the fold -- NOT trying to bring in young pitching from outside at the expense of more young pitching already in your system. If you have limited resources, you can't afford to go outside the organization for the most sought after items in the game.

Trading for Johnson is a bad idea, barring a brain fart by FLA which leads to them accepting a drastically under-market deal. Trading for Josh Johnson is an impatient move. Both Matusz and Tillman have to be that young front-ender -- give them the space to grow into the role. Otherwise, what's the point of even developing these arms? There certainly isn't any competitive advantage to trading away quality quantity for a bit more security in ceiling. Not at this point in the teams development.

Totally agreed. If you want to import proven TOR talent, spend some money in FA. Otherwise, develop your own Josh Johnson's... or better. I think Uggla's a nice player, but he's a little one-dimensional and there's no place to put him.

[OrioleMagic]

Good thread! I agree with Stotle and Crawdad.

I think Sheets is the guy you look at real hard this winter. If he appears to have a good chance at coming back, signing him to an incentive laden deal would be a great way to protect the franchise's finances and would also give Sheets a chance to prove he can play at his old form. Even if he wants an out clause, we still get through 2010 with minimal risked investment and hopefully the mentoring occurs regardless of Sheets performance.

Again, this all hinges on Sheets' medical prognosis.

No Lackey at market value! No Johnson at trade market value!

[vab]

Good thread! I agree with Stotle and Crawdad.

I think Sheets is the guy you look at real hard this winter. If he appears to have a good chance at coming back, signing him to an incentive laden deal would be a great way to protect the franchise's finances and would also give Sheets a chance to prove he can play at his old form. Even if he wants an out clause, we still get through 2010 with minimal risked investment and hopefully the mentoring occurs regardless of Sheets performance.

Again, this all hinges on Sheets' medical prognosis.

No Lackey at market value! No Johnson at trade market value!

I would think the Orioles would have to guarantee the money, or at least more of the money than others, to be of any interest to Sheets. There has to be some incentive to get a guy to attempt a comeback by facing the Yankees and Red Sox multiple times.

[OrioleMagic]

I would think the Orioles would have to guarantee the money, or at least more of the money than others, to be of any interest to Sheets. There has to be some incentive to get a guy to attempt a comeback by facing the Yankees and Red Sox multiple times.

A good point. Even so, if he appears to be healthy, I think Sheets would be a wiser investment than Lackey at FA market value.

[Sports Guy]

A good point. Even so, if he appears to be healthy, I think Sheets would be a wiser investment than Lackey at FA market value.

That depends...What is Sheets going to give you?

One of the reasons to go aggressively after Lackey, besides the idea that he is a TOR starter, is that he throws a lot of innings.

Guys like Sheets and Harden have a ton of upside IF they are healthy.

But if they are just going to be 110-140 IP guys, they really don't do us any good.