Sign Holliday or trade prospects?

[Peace21]

Loaded Thread

Well look who started it. duh

[El Gordo]

And if we find we need a big bat for the next 5-6 years, it will have been a mistake to pass up on Holliday for what he is going to get, right?

Otherwise you are paying 160-200 million for Fielder or Gonzalez if they are even available, or having to trade away valuable prospects.

Spending money and draft picks to keep signing veteran stopgaps that you hope will overachieve to 2 year deals isn't worth it.

Pena and Lee will both be Type A's next year and depending on how the Orioles do, will likely cost a first or second round pick to sign.

Both are inferior to Holliday who will only cost a third rounder to sign.

If we find we need a big bat the next 4-5 years, we're sunk because it will mean that none of Pie, Wieters, Markakis, Reimold, Jones, or Bell, reached their potential.

[JTrea81]

If we find we need a big bat the next 4-5 years, we're sunk because it will mean that none of Pie, Wieters, Markakis, Reimold, Jones, or Bell, reached their potential.

No it will mean one or two of them haven't reached their potential, which is quite possible.

[Sports Guy]

I didn't say it wasn't a mistake. I said, if it was one, it's probably a small one. I'm not sure. Roberts is an all-star caliber 2B. It's not a crippling contract. He's not blocking some uber prospect on the farm.

But will he be in 2013 and 2014?

[LookinUp]

I think the fact that BAL had nothing else in place for 2B helps the deal from being classified as a mistake. But it wasn't a good baseball move. He's already slipping defensively and will likely be below average 2011-13 (if not by next year).

His two most valuable years were likely wastes, but the deal likely hasn't prevented AM from making other moves and it certainly hasn't complicated anything by forcing BAL to jump through extra hoops. The only way I can see it being called a "bad" deal is if there was evidence that AM turned down a good long term MIF solution via trade for Roberts.

The 4-year deal isn't something I was on board with, but it's nowhere near the complicating, unnecessary mess that a Holliday signing could produce.

I'm not sure I agree with this post. I see that you've mentioned Roberts' defensive slip a couple of times now, but I need more evidence.

The Roberts I saw last year seemed to be just as capable physically, but much like Markakis and Jones, prone to a couple of bad mistakes and/or bad positioning. So, I understand that his numbers are likely worse, but I think the sample size might be a little misleading. Note, I'm open to evidence to the contrary.

I'm guessing that his decline defensively isn't that precipitous at all (though likely happening to some degree). I'll need more than last year's metrics before I'm convinced that it's for real. I actually expect it to get somewhat better this year.

In light of this thread, I agree that his defense at the end of his contract is unlikely to be as good as it was two years ago, but I think the downside expectations are somewhat pessimistic.

[Stotle]

I'm not sure I agree with this post. I see that you've mentioned Roberts' defensive slip a couple of times now, but I need more evidence.

The Roberts I saw last year seemed to be just as capable physically, but much like Markakis and Jones, prone to a couple of bad mistakes and/or bad positioning. So, I understand that his numbers are likely worse, but I think the sample size might be a little misleading. Note, I'm open to evidence to the contrary.

I'm guessing that his decline defensively isn't that precipitous at all (though likely happening to some degree). I'll need more than last year's metrics before I'm convinced that it's for real. I actually expect it to get somewhat better this year.

In light of this thread, I agree that his defense at the end of his contract is unlikely to be as good as it was two years ago, but I think the downside expectations are somewhat pessimistic.

Over the past three years, cumulative, Roberts ranks as the sixth worst regular ML second-baseman in infield plus/minus at (-14), per the 2010 Bill James Handbook (Fielding Bible section). He had the sixth-worst range factor among regular ML second-basemen last year, per the same section.

[mweb]

Hey MWeb...This post is exactly what I was talking about the other day with you.

Oh ok, so Hank represents a large group on here? Ok. And if we asked Hank and the rest of this group if they would be for trading for Escobar, Votto, or Josh Johnson in a reasonable deal, you think most would say no. Perhaps, what he and this much of this group is saying is they don't want to sign Holliday or in the past Lackey for what they would cost us, and wouldn't trade for AGon or Vazquez.

[Art Wing]

What Is Spending Addiction - And How Do I Know If I Have It?

“You did then what you knew how to do.

When you knew better, you did better.”—Maya Angelou

The dictionary defines addiction as a means “to devote or surrender oneself to something habitually or obsessively;

behavior that impairs the performance of a vital function(s), a harmful development.” Addiction causes you to lose

your sense of balance and rationality. Beneath all addictions is a longing for immediate gratification--to feel good,

powerful, worthy of admiration and problem-free--and an insistence on ignoring the long-range, self-destructive

implications of the behavior.

If you suffer from spending addiction, one out-of-control shopping spree is never enough. Neighborhood malls and

Internet shopping sites possess a mesmerizing magnetic appeal for you. You give the priciest, most lavish gifts. Your

purchases reflect how knowledgeable you are about all the trendiest brands and designer labels. When you dine out

with friends or business associates, you’re invariably the one who insists on picking up the tab—whether you can

afford to, or not.

In spite of negative consequences that inevitably catch up with you--such as guilt, debt, or feeling ashamed and

secretive about your compulsion to buy things--you find yourself on yet another shopping binge, charging or writing

checks for things you don’t really need and may never even use. You may lie about how much you've spent (to

yourself and to those close to you), conceal price tags and receipts, and do financial gymnastics in an attempt to

juggle your finances and keep up with monthly payment demands. Spending addiction is an attempt to try to “buy”

happiness—to feel admired, to feel accepted, to feel empowered, to push away troubling feelings, like self-doubt or self-disappointment—and can risk ruining everything you hold dear.

How Can You Become Addicted To A Behavior?

There are chemical messengers known as neurotransmitters that carry communication from your brain to throughout

your body. When you’re anxious, nervous, or feeling worried (like when self-critical thoughts start creeping in), you

get a flood of panic-inducing epinephrine that can feel like pure jet fuel. When something happens that makes you

feel especially good (like when you buy something!), you get a rush of incredibly satisfying neurotransmitters called

serotonins that feels GREAT.

Spending addiction causes “I’ve got to buy something NOW” behavior. Each “cha-ching!” of the cash register or

credit card “Approved!” message makes you feel so good, you get enough of a chemical rush to drown in. One

purchase is never enough. You want to feel that exhilarating “high” again, and again, and again--and keep those

nagging, distressing feelings at arm's length. And so you go out and buy something.

You’ve become intoxicated by your own behavior. The only thing that feels important is to be able to continue

spending--because shopping for and acquiring new things makes you feel so good about yourself, about your life,

about everything! Just like the definition for addiction says, you have surrendered yourself to a behavior that’s

habitual, obsessive, and impairs your vital functioning.

What’s Behind Spending Addiction?

Spending addiction is a symptom—or flashing red light warning sign--that there are deep-rooted feelings you’re

trying to avoid facing. Indulging yourself in shopping helps numb those troubling feelings—for a while. Every time

you try to stop the pattern of compulsive spending, you find you have to deal with the distressing feelings “cold

turkey,” and the panic and fear that pops up is almost indescribable. Even though you may have promised yourself

you were going to really curb your spending, in an attempt to feel better fast you go on yet another shopping binge.

What feelings could be so distressingly terrible that they're capable of sending you on a spending path of self

destruction? Maybe you’re afraid that you’re not as attractive or successful as you’d like to be. Perhaps your fear

stems from believing that the real you isn’t lovable. Or maybe you’re afraid that the façade—the “outer” you--you’ve

worked so hard to build and have maintained so painstakingly will crack and that others will then see what, in your

mind, is behind that front: that you’re a fraud, a pretender, a failure.

When you have a spending addiction, what you’re actually attempting to “buy” is to be liked and admired by others

and to not feel consumed by self-doubt and self-disappointment. It doesn’t matter how much money you have, how

successful you are, or what prestige you hold in your community, it’s the inside of you that feels empty and insignificant.

When you’re out there spending money, that gaping emotional Grand Canyon inside of you feels nearly filled and--if only for a little while-- you feel on top of the world.

How Do You Know If You’re Suffering From Spending Addiction?

Heavy-duty denial is a major component of addictive behavior. In order to determine whether or not you’re suffering

from spending addiction, you’re going to have to do a scathingly honest “audit” of your spending habits: how much and

how often you spend; what damage your spending causes to your bank account, your work, your family, and your very

personal life; and, most importantly, what feelings of fear and/or insecurity your spending habits attempt to cover up.

Recognizing you may have an addiction is the first big step towards recovery. If you suspect that spending is a likely source

of problems for you, you might consider talking with a therapist. Together you can look at what motivates you to buy things

and how your spending habits affect the core quality of your life, which is to say, how it shapes the way you relate to those

close to you, how you imagine you are regarded by others, and how you really feel about yourself.

Addictive behavior is treatable. If you truly want to put a stop to how your spending habits are taking over your life, therapy

can provide insight that will help you un-learn counter-productive behavior, and guide the way to developing new coping skills

that will allow you to claim the “priceless” gift of genuine happiness and self-contentment.

http://www.eap.partners.org/WorkLife/Addiction/Compulsive_Spending/What_is_Spending_Addiction.asp

[Sports Guy]

Oh ok, so Hank represents a large group on here? Ok. And if we asked Hank and the rest of this group if they would be for trading for Escobar, Votto, or Josh Johnson in a reasonable deal, you think most would say no. Perhaps, what he and this much of this group is saying is they don't want to sign Holliday or in the past Lackey for what they would cost us, and wouldn't trade for AGon or Vazquez.

I have seen them talk about waiting a year on any of these types of guys.

BTW, I am just showing you what i was talking about the other day...just so you know I wasn't making it up.

[mweb]

My response to the thread question is not Holliday, and most likely not trade for a big bat. That's because I don't feel the ridiculous need to have every position locked up for at least 4 years. Obviously trades would be considered next year, but I'd be fine with a guy or two like Dunn, Lee, Pena, Werth, and Crawford depending on how our guys do.

[El Gordo]

No it will mean one or two of them haven't reached their potential, which is quite possible.

You mean if only Reimold, Wieters, and Nick become big bats(.900 OPS), and Pie and Jones and Jones fail to reach their potential(only.780 OPS)we'll be desperately in need of a big bat?:rolleyestf:

[mweb]

I have seen them talk about waiting a year on any of these types of guys.

BTW, I am just showing you what i was talking about the other day...just so you know I wasn't making it up.

I didn't say you were making it up, but I think you're exaggerating the amount of people who feel this way. Most of the people are more like you and me, meaning no to Holliday and Lackey at the cost (although you like the idea of both more than I and many others in this group you're talking about), but yes to various short-term options this year like Sheets, Bedard, Delgado, etc, and would consider a deal for one of those young guys I mentioned in the last post who may not really be available, but not AGon or Vazquez or someone like that.

[Mike B]

I'll take option C: Neither. Let our own bats develop and spend money to keep our homegrown talent.

Me too.....he did not want us to have that option.

[wieters1515]

Why do we have to trade any prospects???, and i dont want holliday for 6 to 8 years

[weams]

I'll take option C: Neither. Let our own bats develop and spend money to keep our homegrown talent.

I agree with choice C. If we get him I am ok with that, but please, no WOW offer here. We are close to being good...the kids have not killed the man so no need to break up the band.