Interesting article..

[Fan4Life]

http://www.minorleagueball.com/

This year, he hit .376/.435/.722 at home, but "just" .301/.374/.485 on the road. . .in other words, he's a really good player, but there is something of the old Dante Bichette effect here in that the home numbers juice the raw stats. But still, even at the .301/.374/.485 level, he is a lot better than I thought he would be. There is no way I'd ever have seen him as a .300 hitter at the major league level. The minor league numbers didn't support it, and when I saw him in person he didn't show a swing or the type of consistency that would indicate he could do that. But he did, and he has, and he's going to do it again, and he will possibly end up with an MVP trophy to show for it. So all hail Matt Holliday, and the scouts and coaches who saw in him what I did not.

Prospect Retro: Matt Holliday

By John Sickels

Posted on Tue Oct 02, 2007 at 12:10:08 PM CDT

Prospect Retro: Matt Holliday

Here is one guy I was really wrong about.

I originally posted this as possible evidence that just because you have poor MiLB numbers, doesn't mean you can't succeed at the MLB level. Hear that LH? :002_ssuprised:

[RShack]

I originally posted this as possible evidence that just because you have poor MiLB numbers, doesn't mean you can't succeed at the MLB level. Hear that LH? :002_ssuprised:

Wow. What an interesting find. I wondered if there were guys like this. The MiL vs. ML numbers are way, way different in a way that some folks claim can't happen.

       AB    AVG    OBP    SLG    OPS    BB    KMiL    2309  .275   .352   .425   .777   260  438ML     2047  .317   .376   .545   .921   166  385

How do we make sense if this? You can't bail out on the grounds of "small sample size": there's more than 2K AB's on both lines. I wish we could get him on the phone and ask him. His ML numbers are way better than his MiL numbers, nomatter how you look at it... except for K-rates which are almost exactly the same, and his BB-rate which was way better in the minors... all of which makes it even more curious...

In the 5 years from 1999-2003, in A and AA ball, he was pretty much the same mediocre guy... then in 2004, he jumps right to the big leagues and all the sudden becomes a very different guy... it looks to me like at age 24, and in his 7th pro season, he suddenly starting hitting a whole lot better... against big league pitching... and now a stadium full of CR fans is chanting MVP *very* loudly, and they have a point... Coors may be some of it, but it sure isn't all of it...

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/H/Matt-Holliday.shtml

[Fan4Life]

Yeah, be interesting to know if there are more guys like him out there....

[RShack]

I didn't partake in the thread to which you guys are referring, but I would say that maybe Holliday is an abberation.

Oh, I don't think there's any question that it's unusual. The question from the past threads about this concerns how rare is it. Many folks were discounting the possibility.

Also, look at this comparison:

MH MiLB Stats - 275 / 352 / 425 / 777

MH Road Stats -273 / 333 / 448 / 781 (Road being MLB road stats)

So, the implication from this is that the colossal diff between his MiL and ML record is playing half-a-season at Coors. (Yes? I'm not trying to put words in your mouth.)

If so, that means that Coors can turn a guy who spent 4 years as a grade-C prospect in A and AA ball into the NL MVP. (What am I missing about this?)