Who and why?

[JimPalmerJr]

What are Taillon's signing demands ?

If he wants a major league contract that forces him to be in the majors by 2015, then no way.

Not that thrilled with first round HS pick period, but there is nothing special in the college crop.

My order :

1.) Pick 4 , 2011

2.) Machado

3.) Taillon

At best the pick is offered Wieters money, with up to seven years of development time available to the O's.

Even the most dominant pitcher is going to need a bullpen and offense. I like the O's chances of finding the next Clemens deeper in the draft , than the next Jeter.

For those who say you can't pass on this pick , would you trade Hobgood for Pomeranz or Cox ?

[RVAbird]

Ok, I'll bite. Who are your top three talents in this draft?

Paging PBR Street Gang!

[allstar1579]

What are Taillon's signing demands ?

If he wants a major league contract that forces him to be in the majors by 2015, then no way.

Not that thrilled with first round HS pick period, but there is nothing special in the college crop.

My order :

1.) Pick 4 , 2011

2.) Machado

3.) Taillon

At best the pick is offered Wieters money, with up to seven years of development time available to the O's.

Even the most dominant pitcher is going to need a bullpen and offense. I like the O's chances of finding the next Clemens deeper in the draft , than the next Jeter.

For those who say you can't pass on this pick , would you trade Hobgood for Pomeranz or Cox ?

The difference in talent between Taillon and Machado is actually really big, too big to realistically make it a BPA conversation I think.

I actually wouldn't trade Hobby for either one of those two in complete honesty. And the risk you run of not signing your pick and then having a high pick next year makes you a gun-point hostage for that next pick. If you don't sign who you pick next year, you lose the pick, they will know that and ask for much more than you are trying to avoid paying for JT this year. That would be why Storen was so overdrafted this year, they waited until they found someone they could work out a pre-draft deal with and had it in place before the draft. He was easily a 15-20 pick overdraft. Do you want to have to take the 19th best player at #4 next year because of the risk of losing them?

[PBR Street Gang]

Paging PBR Street Gang!

Shall we? RVAbird?

[odogs101]

Shall we? RVAbird?

This is something that just stands out whenever I see it. PBR says that none of the most likely picks available are good enough. But he also never actually addresses the question the thread poses. If you don't like the guys who are being picked by others, that's fine, just tell us who it is that you would pick at 3 and why. That is after all the question asked in the OP.

[theobird]

I am not going to just make the obvious picks and copy Keith Law. I like to read Law's analysis, but seldom totally agree with him. I want the O's to take a college Bat with the #3 pick in the draft and my first selection would be Michael Choice. He is a CFer, but could play on the corners as well. And he has really legit power. I don't think he is long for the minor leagues and could have an impact in the Majors very quickly. My second pick would be Christian Colon. Defensively he can play SS in the ML's right now, and I like his fluidity.

Now I know that a lot of you would go berserk if either of these two gets selected with the third pick, but the OP asked, and I answered.

[mcgraw238]

The difference in talent between Taillon and Machado is actually really big, too big to realistically make it a BPA conversation I think.

I actually wouldn't trade Hobby for either one of those two in complete honesty. And the risk you run of not signing your pick and then having a high pick next year makes you a gun-point hostage for that next pick. If you don't sign who you pick next year, you lose the pick, they will know that and ask for much more than you are trying to avoid paying for JT this year. That would be why Storen was so overdrafted this year, they waited until they found someone they could work out a pre-draft deal with and had it in place before the draft. He was easily a 15-20 pick overdraft. Do you want to have to take the 19th best player at #4 next year because of the risk of losing them?

I agree that having that pick in the subsequent year carries more risk due to the fact that you have to get a deal done and the player knows of this risk. I also agree that Storen was an overdraft. However, you also have to factor into the mix that the Nat knew they were going to be in unchartered territory with Strausburg and needed to get the Storen slot in the books.

[allstar1579]

I agree that having that pick in the subsequent year carries more risk due to the fact that you have to get a deal done and the player knows of this risk. I also agree that Storen was an overdraft. However, you also have to factor into the mix that the Nat knew they were going to be in unchartered territory with Strausburg and needed to get the Storen slot in the books.

Yeah it's one of those situations where I guess we'll never know. If they hadn't also had such a high profile prospect that year, maybe they spend a little less and then go a little more expensive with the second pick. Problem is you just can't take that risk when you are talking about losing a first round pick as a losing team. That's what got us in this mess to begin with.

[LookinUp]

The difference in talent between Taillon and Machado is actually really big, too big to realistically make it a BPA conversation I think.

I actually wouldn't trade Hobby for either one of those two in complete honesty. And the risk you run of not signing your pick and then having a high pick next year makes you a gun-point hostage for that next pick.

This isn't a direct comparison of player talent...it's because he's already signed and on board, right?

[H0smash]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/what-should-the-pirates-do-at-2/

Good article. That also says if we are sitting at No. 3 with Machado and Taillon both on the board we should take Machado. I have been constantly hearing that Taillon was the better of the two but I guess this takes the TINSTAAPP principle into acount. Thoughts?

[allstar1579]

This isn't a direct comparison of player talent...it's because he's already signed and on board, right?

Well...there are some variables in there, but last year Hobby was projected around #8-13, I would take the 13th pick last year over the 5th pick this year. I'm not a huge Pomeranz fan at all, and I think Cox is the best college bat by default (for the record I can't say I'd take him over Brentz strictly talking offense), I don't think he's really that good. This is a year where people are being hyped because there is nothing better out there, not out of merit.

Give me a big, young, sturdy GB machine over Pomeranz (am I the only one that pictures a tiny furry dog when you hear his name?) or Cox, any day. This year just really isn't impressive in the first round (after Harper and Taillon), although it should make up for it in depth in the middle rounds.

[RVAbird]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/what-should-the-pirates-do-at-2/

Good article. That also says if we are sitting at No. 3 with Machado and Taillon both on the board we should take Machado. I have been constantly hearing that Taillon was the better of the two but I guess this takes the TINSTAAPP principle into acount. Thoughts?

I love fangraphs, but with all due respect I don't really care what they have to say about the draft.

Like I've said before, any simplistic, general draft principle is fruitless. That article gives no real analysis of the individuals and their projections other than some copy&paste overviews, then completely dehumanizes them and basically says 'well, all three are pretty talented, so we think the best pick is that guy who hits because top hitters, on average, are worth 1/3 of a win more over their first six years in the majors.'

This is basically assuming that all HS hitters, HS pitchers, college hitters and college pitchers have roughly the same ceiling/projection as long as they are consensus top 10 picks.

BTW, TINSTAAPP is not the "ruthless beast" it was once made out to be. I thought most people in the sabermetric community agreed on that now?

[H0smash]

I love fangraphs, but with all due respect I don't really care what they have to say about the draft.

Like I've said before, any simplistic, general draft principle is fruitless. That article gives no real analysis of the individuals and their projections other than some copy&paste overviews, then completely dehumanizes them and basically says 'well, all three are pretty talented, so we think the best pick is that guy who hits because top hitters, on average, are worth 1/3 of a win more over their first six years in the majors.'

This is basically assuming that all HS hitters, HS pitchers, college hitters and college pitchers have roughly the same ceiling/projection as long as they are consensus top 10 picks.

BTW, TINSTAAPP is not the "ruthless beast" it was once made out to be. I thought most people in the sabermetric community agreed on that now?

Yeah I don't agree that TINSTAAPP is the same beast it was once made out to be, just pointing out an article that talked about the top of the draft. I guess the only way that thought process would be sound is if the two players in question were absolutely equal, which is also probably pretty rare. From everything I've read, I would like us to get Taillon, I think he has the potential to be a future ace (something we currently lack), and have heard that Machado may not stick at SS. IF he can't then whoever selects him may be in trouble since he's not expected to be an elite bat at third (if you take him that high you're expecting him to be elite).

[RVAbird]

Yeah I don't agree that TINSTAAPP is the same beast it was once made out to be, just pointing out an article that talked about the top of the draft. I guess the only way that thought process would be sound is if the two players in question were absolutely equal, which is also probably pretty rare. From everything I've read, I would like us to get Taillon, I think he has the potential to be a future ace (something we currently lack), and have heard that Machado may not stick at SS. IF he can't then whoever selects him may be in trouble since he's not expected to be an elite bat at third (if you take him that high you're expecting him to be elite).

Oh sorry, didn't mean to make it seem like I was arguing with you, just the fangraphs 'staff!'

I'd say you're dead on with everything you say in this post.

[allstar1579]

Yeah I don't agree that TINSTAAPP is the same beast it was once made out to be, just pointing out an article that talked about the top of the draft. I guess the only way that thought process would be sound is if the two players in question were absolutely equal, which is also probably pretty rare. From everything I've read, I would like us to get Taillon, I think he has the potential to be a future ace (something we currently lack), and have heard that Machado may not stick at SS. IF he can't then whoever selects him may be in trouble since he's not expected to be an elite bat at third (if you take him that high you're expecting him to be elite).

Taillon is pretty darn close to a can't miss prospect. He might be a bit better than Beckett, and is right there in that class of big, Texas power pitchers, he's a lot better than some people around here want to give him credit for.