I thought this deserved its own thread...

[El Gordo]

I've pointed out as much as anyone that things were awful throughout the organization when AM took over and I agree that some inroads have been made in some areas. Now if there are some good 'ol boys with ties to Peter lingering around, then that is a sign that AM doesn't have total control. As I said in the earlier post, Bruce Allen & Shanahan have purged their organization of the ultimate good 'ol boys (Cerrato & Swanson). And sure, the process does take time, but maybe you go out and lure an established guy from the Marlins, RSox, etc. who bring instant credibility in this area. If its the latter of building the infrastructure from the ground up (as you suggest), I'd like to the team share some of these enhancements and maybe even accelerate things.

If it's a matter of someone trying to figure out how things work in the DR how do you accelerate that? As to the Gnats, I beleive they have relatively new ownership, so it's easier to clear the deadwood. I do know that a number of experienced GM's have said that it takes about 7 years to revamp a club completely, so I think AM needs to be given a bit more time.

[mcgraw238]

If it's a matter of someone trying to figure out how things work in the DR how do you accelerate that? As to the Gnats, I beleive they have relatively new ownership, so it's easier to clear the deadwood. I do know that a number of experienced GM's have said that it takes about 7 years to revamp a club completely, so I think AM needs to be given a bit more time.

I was speaking of the Redskins and the purging of those closeste to owner Daniel Snyder. I'm all in favor of additional time for AM but I'd like to see tangible evidence of said revamping. Who, what, when and where? I'm not trying to be cute here, but I can only think of a couple brothers switching roles and the hiring of a nephew.

[Dipper9]

If the O's didn't check on Gonzalez's health that is very, very stupid, and it fundamentally alters my view of what MacPhail did last offseason. I've got no problem with the Millwood or Miggy moves, but Atkins was stupid on its face and Gonzalez turns out to have been stupid if he wasn't checked out. I could have forgiven one dumb move out of four, but two is unacceptable, especially considering we gave up a draft pick and paid him a lot of money.

Monday morning quarterbacking is always easy, but the four major pickups this year have all failed thus far. Millwood looked good early but has been AWFUL lately. Miggy has been steady but in a mediocre way, not in a career average way. Atkins and Gonzo have BOTh been awful. Taking it a step further, Koji has been an absolute disaster, another 10 million dollars flushed down the toilet. While I personally love both BRob and Kakes, you can look at their extentions "right now" and say they have not played up to their contracts. Eaton and Hendrickson last year were terrible signings. Hobgood as a first round pick last year was not great. Not finding a long term manager and replacing the coaching staff after the 2009 season was a mistake. For three years we have held MacPhail on a pedestal due to a couple good trades, but in reality, this man has made many, many bad moves that are all starting to materialize right before our eyes. Its no wonder Angelos is upset. He did what EVERYONE wanted him to do. He hired someone to fix the team and he has stayed in the shadows, and now that move has completely blown up in his face, and the fans are now angry at Angelos once again? A true example of damned if you do, damned if you don't. I said it earlier and I'll say it again....when we look back at the MacPhail era, this may very well be the lowest point of the storied history of this franchise.

[El Gordo]

I was speaking of the Redskins and the purging of those closeste to owner Daniel Snyder. I'm all in favor of additional time for AM but I'd like to see tangible evidence of said revamping. Who, what, when and where? I'm not trying to be cute here, but I can only think of a couple brothers switching roles and the hiring of a nephew.

The very nature of revamping means tangible eveidence, of the sort to reach ordinary fans, will be the last thing to appeear. But maybe you are in a position to see things sooner?

[Guest rbrhett]

I was talking to a top MLB pitcher about four weeks ago and I asked him about the Os. He laughed and said, "What do they have, one win?" And he wouldn't go any farther about the players. The Os are the laughing stock of baseball and NO "premium" free agent will sign here in the near future. Period.

So, the Orioles have one option, and I hope they are just trying to decide when to proceed. With the "cavalry" not producing as well as they hoped, the young bats falling on their faces, and the bad attitude in the clubhouse, they only thing left to do is trade anything they have left to trade, release guys like Atkins, and promote from the minors. If PA wants to do the right thing he should spend like crazy on player development because it will be a LONG time before they could get anyone who is worth the money to play in Baltimore. Be ready for another 5 years at least of losing. Honestly, the Orioles NEED to finish with 100+ loses for the next few seasons in order to get the ship back on track. About four or five consecutive #1 picks and things should look better. I hope they don't sign another FA. Keep the picks, trade what you can when you can and let guys who will net you picks (if you think they are replaceable) walk.

[delinodeshields]

What a great thread!

Obviously Angelos and MacPhail are having problems. I am looking forward to hearing the extent of these problems and other details that this thread will eventually produce.

My own two cents:

When I look at MacPhail's history with the Orioles, I get the sense he read Moneyball before taking the job, and thought, "hey, I can do that." Unfortunately, he has proven he can't.

Moneyball was all about smart drafting, signing bargain free agents, and making timely trades. MacPhail has proven to be mediocre at drafting, ineffective at trading(thus far, although I still have hopes for Adam Jones), and unbelievably inept at signing free agents.

The Garrett Atkins signing was, and still is, shocking. Even though it's only a one year deal, it is the dumbest signing I have ever seen. It makes me seriously question MacPhail's basic intelligence.

Furtheremore, the Mike Gonzalez signing, without an MRI, is dumbfounding.

Beyond embarrassing signings, its the free agent moves he hasn't made that have hurt the Orioles the most. He could have added countless free agents, big and small, that would have made this team decent.

If I were Angelos, I would be steaming mad. MacPhail has done a terrible job. If Angelos reinserted himself at this point, I would not be upset.

[Ohfan67]

When I look at MacPhail's history with the Orioles, I get the sense he read Moneyball before taking the job, and thought, "hey, I can do that." Unfortunately, he has proven he can't.

I'm not a big fan of MacPhail, think he's made a couple of dumb moves and a lot of so-so moves, and obviously a lot of his moves are not working out right now. BUT...MacPhail was basically "Moneyball" before anyone had ever heard of Billy Beane. MacPhail won two world championships on middle-of-the-road budgets.

[mcgraw238]

The very nature of revamping means tangible eveidence, of the sort to reach ordinary fans, will be the last thing to appeear. But maybe you are in a position to see things sooner?

Don't be a jerk! I'm not trying to be over the top. I'm wondering what's been done and if more can be done quicker. It's a question not a criticism of the club. I made real clear that I'm not in favor of removing AM. However, if we are "revamping," has anyone been brought in from the outside (other than AM) with special skills? Have we poached talent from successful organizations? That sort of "tangible evidence" of said revamping. I'm just not sure how you revamp when the infrastructure is basically the status quo.

[El Gordo]

Don't be a jerk! I'm not trying to be over the top. I'm wondering what's been done and if more can be done quicker. It's a question not a criticism of the club. I made real clear that I'm not in favor of removing AM. However, if we are "revamping," has anyone been brought in from the outside (other than AM) with special skills? Have we poached talent from successful organizations? That sort of "tangible evidence" of said revamping. I'm just not sure how you revamp when the infrastructure is basically the status quo.

So you are nothing more than an ordinary fan? Excuse me. But since the fruits of revamping wont be visable to the ordinary fan until the very end, and you, as an ordinary fan see no evidence of it, what is your point? Yeah it would be nice to know what has been done and what the obstacles are, but we can't. It's not something they are going to talk about in the press. I think it's presumptuous to expect things to take a certain amount of time, when you know nothing about the particulars of the problem.

[Frobby]

While I personally love both BRob and Kakes, you can look at their extentions "right now" and say they have not played up to their contracts.

I don't think I would say that about Markakis.

2009: $3 mm salary and $1 mm signing bonus, performance valued at $9.9 mm per fangraphs

2010: $6.75 mm salary plus $1.1 mm signing bonus, performance through 40% of the season valued at $5.6 mm per fangraphs (projected $14 mm value over a full season).

If you are going to look at performance the last two years, you have to look at salary the last 2 years, not what salary Markakis will earn in 2011-14 when we don't know what his performance will be. To me, this is still a very good contract.

[mcgraw238]

So you are nothing more than an ordinary fan? Excues me. But since the fruits of revamping wont be visable to the ordinary fan until the very end, and you, as an ordinary fan see no evidence of it, what is your point? Yeah it would be nice to know what has been done and what the obstacles are, but we can't. It's not something they are going to talk about in the press. I think it's presumptuous to expect things to take a certain amount of time, when you know nothing about the particulars of the problem.

Yes, I am nothing more than an ordinary fan. I can't be any clearer that I'm not asking about the fruits...I get that the fruits take time...I'm curious about the infrastructure and I gave you an example of another organization that is in the process of revamping. And I don't agree that changes in organizational personnel and philosophy is something that will not be communicated to the public. I suspect the lack of communication in this are is because there have not been any significant additions to note. As for revamping, I have no particular timeline in mind and you won't find any post of mine advocating such. You apparently find it objectionable to ask any questions about the state of the organization unless I have a full briefing of the particulars on the matter. I think you'd be hard pressed to find many (actually any) posters on this board that consider me overly critical of AM and the baseball operations.

[sangar]

I don't think I would say that about Markakis.

2009: $3 mm salary and $1 mm signing bonus, performance valued at $9.9 mm per fangraphs

2010: $6.75 mm salary plus $1.1 mm signing bonus, performance through 40% of the season valued at $5.6 mm per fangraphs (projected $14 mm value over a full season).

If you are going to look at performance the last two years, you have to look at salary the last 2 years, not what salary Markakis will earn in 2011-14 when we don't know what his performance will be. To me, this is still a very good contract.

Correct me if I'm wrong, and I probably am, but going by fangraph's valuations wouldn't it cost about $400m to win 100 games?

[BaltimoreTerp]

Correct me if I'm wrong, and I probably am, but going by fangraph's valuations wouldn't it cost about $400m to win 100 games?

You are wrong

Basically, the FanGraphs numbers are that on the open market a Win Above Replacement would be worth about $4 million.

In the case of a team, a replacement-level team would win ~40 games, so to buy a team at market prices that would win 100 games it would cost ~$240 million.

Now, that's why developing young talent and signing them to below-market-value deals are so important. Not even the Yankees have a $240 million payroll, but all teams have players making much less than they are "worth".

[sangar]

Ah, thanks for the clarification.

[Frobby]

You are wrong

Basically, the FanGraphs numbers are that on the open market a Win Above Replacement would be worth about $4 million.

In the case of a team, a replacement-level team would win ~40 games, so to buy a team at market prices that would win 100 games it would cost ~$240 million.

And so to buy at team at market prices that would win 44 games, as the Orioles are on pace to do, should cost about $16 mm. Or less, since I sometimes hear that "replacement level" is more like 46-47 games.

Unbelievable.