Ryan Berry comes in at #9

[Tony-OH]

http://www.orioleshangout.com/article.asp?ID=2845

In his first professional season right-hander starter Ryan Berry showed big league stuff and an advanced feel for pitching. He doesn't have an overwhelming fastball but offsets that with good life, above average command and great knuckle-curve.

[hoosiers]

Tony,

Any chance Berry can still add some mph to the FB? Will Berry pick up some speed on the FB in a relief role?

[Tony-OH]

Tony,

Any chance Berry can still add some mph to the FB? Will Berry pick up some speed on the FB in a relief role?

There's not a ton of projectability left him him, but I could see him at 92-93 out of the pen. Even though I think his best role will be as a 2-3 inning reliever (think Jason Berken-type guy), his pitchability suggests he might be able to stick as a 5th starter-type if he can go a strong 5-6 innings. The Orioles don't have a ton of starter prospects that will start at Bowie and above next year so they may want to see what they have in him by getting him to throw 5-6 innings consistently while stretching him out to seven occasionally to see how he holds up. Last year he went into a funk in Delmarva after pitching three straight seven inning games. I think the Orioles need to see if that was a fluke or if that gives them a pretty good indication of his durability.

My concern is the hitch in his delivery and the fact his stuff seems to come down a notch after the 3rd inning suggesting he'll be stronger as a reliever. Either way though, the Orioles need to see what they have in him first before making the move.

[Frobby]

I was glad to see Berry on the list. I think it's more likely that he ends up in the bullpen than as a starter, but I'm glad they are keeping him in the rotation for now.

[Jagwar]

Maybe I am missing the point, but what does it say that the #9 prospect is projected as a "Set-up reliever, possible 5th starter."

Should I be encouraged or discouraged?

[LookinUp]

Maybe I am missing the point, but what does it say that the #9 prospect is projected as a "Set-up reliever, possible 5th starter."

Should I be encouraged or discouraged?

As a snapshot, it's discouraging. Snapshots though are weighted to recent results. Between guys like Erbe, Cowan and Spoone being injured, Hobgood having an off year and other young projectable guys not producing, 2010 was basically a disaster in many ways for our farm system (particularly the pitching).

Hopefully those guys and new draftees will rebound in 2011.

[Arthur_Bryant]

Maybe I am missing the point, but what does it say that the #9 prospect is projected as a "Set-up reliever, possible 5th starter."

Should I be encouraged or discouraged?

That depends on his chances of reaching the projection.

"Setup reliever, possible 5th starter" would be a pretty good outcome for a 9th-round draft pick.

[Stotle]

That depends on his chances of reaching the projection.

"Setup reliever, possible 5th starter" would be a pretty good outcome for a 9th-round draft pick.

Even one that was paid like an early-3rd round pick?

[Arthur_Bryant]

Even one that was paid like an early-3rd round pick?

That's OK. I'm not going to downrate them for spending money.

[Stotle]

That's OK. I'm not going to downrate them for spending money.

I loved the Berry pick at that point. I was just having some fun with you.

[SrMeowMeow]

That's OK. I'm not going to downrate them for spending money.

Shouldn't you, though?

[Frobby]

"Setup reliever, possible 5th starter" would be a pretty good outcome for a 9th-round draft pick.

Even one that was paid like an early-3rd round pick?

To me, once you are past the first round, anyone who makes it to the majors and has a productive career in any role whatsoever is a worthwhile pick. Only about 1/3 of the third rounders ever set foot in the major leagues, and not many of those are impact players.

[Tony-OH]

Maybe I am missing the point, but what does it say that the #9 prospect is projected as a "Set-up reliever, possible 5th starter."

Should I be encouraged or discouraged?

Well, I guess it depends on your outlook. Guys like Wirsch, Coffey, Henry, Martin, Beal and Tim Berry all have significantly higher upsides, but either have injury issues or just a lack of record that holds them back from being rated higher than Berry.

The other thing is if our ninth best prospects actually becomes a 5th starter/setup guy that's pretty good because that means there were 8 better prospects who will better than that.

I like projectability as much as the next guy, but Berry's chance of become at least a 5th starter/set-up guy outweighs the projectability of the other guys IMHO.

[Stotle]

To me, once you are past the first round, anyone who makes it to the majors and has a productive career in any role whatsoever is a worthwhile pick. Only about 1/3 of the third rounders ever set foot in the major leagues, and not many of those are impact players.

I don't think this is being disputed by anyone. A ML regular in any capacity is well worth the typical Rule 4 signing bonus. Also, that has nothing to do with the percentage of third rounders that make the Bigs -- you can make the argument simply by pointing at cash outlay.

EDIT -- Because I want to state again the purpose of examining bonuses as a manner of grading a scouting department, the argument that "the player is worth it if he makes the Majors" is correct in a vacuum, but incorrect if you consider that the draft budget is not limitless and every dollar you spend on one player is a dollar less to spend elsewhere in the draft. Giving $1million to a 17th Rounder and having him eek out a career as a 4th OF isn't an efficient use of the draft budget because you could have theoretically picked-up two or three solid talents for the same money spent.

And, to be clear, I have no issue with what BAL paid Berry. I think his profile is certainly worth early-3rd round money.

[Arthur_Bryant]

Shouldn't you, though?

Not in context. That pick and the bonus were part of a somewhat unconventional drafting strategy which so far has had disappointing results. If they get slammed for the disappointments--as they have been, and will be--they should get full credit for the hits. Which may or may not include Berry.