MFY readying Lee offer; Red Sox contact Werth

[bird watcher]

I strongly disagree here. Unless you are assuming that these two FA deals push season ticket sales to '96-'97 levels, there is no way we can support $120M payroll without taking a huge loss. In time, when attendence comes back up, we should be able to support that for a few years.

I addressed this in my post earlier. Why not take a loss NOW in order to increase revenues later? Spend the money, get over the hump, write with lots of red ink, and watch this town come ALIVE. There is brand value that can come from the O's that are completely untapped because they have been so bad for so long. We may have to INVEST in the future now and be content to take a loss, just like many many start up companies do.

[waroriole]

I addressed this in my post earlier. Why not take a loss NOW in order to increase revenues later? Spend the money, get over the hump, write with lots of red ink, and watch this town come ALIVE. There is brand value that can come from the O's that are completely untapped because they have been so bad for so long. We may have to INVEST in the future now and be content to take a loss, just like many many start up companies do.

That may work, but it's also very risky. What happens if you do that and you still don't win? Or, if your guys get hurt. Then you're taking a big loss for the next few years, and have severely hurt your chances of improving your club in the future.

[bird watcher]

That may work, but it's also very risky. What happens if you do that and you still don't win? Or, if your guys get hurt. Then you're taking a big loss for the next few years, and have severely hurt your chances of improving your club in the future.

There isn't a business going that doesn't take these exact risks everyday. I guess it just takes a little trust.

[Roll Tide]

That may work, but it's also very risky. What happens if you do that and you still don't win? Or, if your guys get hurt. Then you're taking a big loss for the next few years, and have severely hurt your chances of improving your club in the future.

Plus after doing little in this regard for more than 10 years the Orioles can certainly afford to take a few chances.

Business Approach A improve the product people will buy it.

Business Plan B Wait for team to improve to contention & then Add after the attendance spikes.

Wait & wait & wait for the team to contend....We've been waiting for 10 years. The Orioles need the common fan...Not the guys posting on this site. They've done nothing in 10 years to say to those fans we want your business back.

[BaltimoreTerp]

I brought these posts over from the optimism thread so that I didn't derail that thread. I want to point out two things real quick.

1. I keep hearing the "I'm not going to panic two days into the offseason" comment. Neither am I. I am panicking 3 and a half years INTO the rebuild when I still see the same holes we had when MacPhail took over.

2. The problem with being optimistic about the Orioles offseason is that all too often the more optimistic you are, the harder the fall is at the end of the offseason. That is why I am keeping my expectations low, and will be gratefully surprised if MacPhail makes some big moves. The trip up is much less painful than the fall down!

You are certainly going beyond "keeping your expectations low". You are in full-blown "This franchise sucks and is NEVER going to get better" mode.

And you absolutely are panicking two days in, because as I said you are using your feelings about the last 13 years to damn the last two days, when you have essentially no evidence to do so. In fact, we have word in the national media that they are being aggressive.

[Roll Tide]

You are certainly going beyond "keeping your expectations low". You are in full-blown "This franchise sucks and is NEVER going to get better" mode.

And you absolutely are panicking two days in, because as I said you are using your feelings about the last 13 years to damn the last two days, when you have essentially no evidence to do so. In fact, we have word in the national media that they are being aggressive.

I'm not sure thats what he's saying ... But its easy to be frustrated when the Yanks are talking about Lee. The Red Sox about Werth and the lowly O's talking with Pena. The worst of the three players by far.

[BaltimoreTerp]

I'm not sure thats what he's saying ... But its easy to be frustrated when the Yanks are talking about Lee. The Red Sox about Werth and the lowly O's talking with Pena. The worst of the three players by far.

Yeah, but that's like saying "its easy to be frustrated when Bill Gates is talking about eating filet mignon and most of the country is talking about eating a steak." You have to have context, and he sounds like he's lost his.

[Dipper9]

Yeah, but that's like saying "its easy to be frustrated when Bill Gates is talking about eating filet mignon and most of the country is talking about eating a steak." You have to have context, and he sounds like he's lost his.

By he, I assume you mean me, and I admit, I am damning MacPhail based on his 3 and a half years in Baltimore, not on the 13 years of losing in Baltimore.

I hear what you're saying, and the fact that I keep coming back to defend my stance certainly would make it appear as though I am being totally pessimistic.

The truth is probably somewhere in between. I WANT to be optimistic. I WANT to give MacPhail the benefit of the doubt and wait this offseason out. But I also am protecting myself by keeping my expectations low.

I Hope that MacPhail does what is needed for this team, and I hope he makes my rants today look ridiculous. We shall see.

[mweb]

There is no reason the Orioles can not sustain a $120 million a payroll after the low payrolls they've been using during the rebuilding years. I never put the condition that he must sign two of the top free agents to be successful. I prefer he go the trade route but if that doesn't work, he's got to hit the free agency class to some extent. Derek Lee and Uribe could be prime guys to pick up.

I'm not saying they can't sustain that payroll as I don't know one way or another, I'm saying it's hard to believe PA will allow AM to go that high. Thus, it would be hard to blame AM for not putting together a team that his boss most likely won't let him put together.

Both Lee and Uribe would be fine pick-ups. Uribe isn't that high on my list of SS's though.

[BaltimoreTerp]

By he, I assume you mean me, and I admit, I am damning MacPhail based on his 3 and a half years in Baltimore, not on the 13 years of losing in Baltimore.

I hear what you're saying, and the fact that I keep coming back to defend my stance certainly would make it appear as though I am being totally pessimistic.

The truth is probably somewhere in between. I WANT to be optimistic. I WANT to give MacPhail the benefit of the doubt and wait this offseason out. But I also am protecting myself by keeping my expectations low.

I Hope that MacPhail does what is needed for this team, and I hope he makes my rants today look ridiculous. We shall see.

You can keep your expectations low without going into the depths of despair. That's all I'm saying

[Sports Guy]

I'm not saying they can't sustain that payroll as I don't know one way or another, I'm saying it's hard to believe PA will allow AM to go that high. Thus, it would be hard to blame AM for not putting together a team that his boss most likely won't let him put together.

Both Lee and Uribe would be fine pick-ups. Uribe isn't that high on my list of SS's though.

If by fine, you mean an upgrade over Izzy, then ok...but Uribe isn't someone we should be targeting..Too many other potential long term options.

BTW, you keep mentioning Lowrie and he is a guy I have always wanted yet continue to forget about...He is yet another name to add to the SS list of guys we should be going after.

[mweb]

If by fine, you mean an upgrade over Izzy, then ok...but Uribe isn't someone we should be targeting..Too many other potential long term options.

BTW, you keep mentioning Lowrie and he is a guy I have always wanted yet continue to forget about...He is yet another name to add to the SS list of guys we should be going after.

You mention Bartlett a lot, well he's only 7 months younger than Uribe, and isn't any better, so why is he one of the primary guys you want?

I agree that Uribe is not a great target, that's why I said he isn't that high on my SS list. Lowrie, Hardy, and the Japanese guy are my top 3, possibly in that order, but not sure yet. After that, Uribe may be an ok guy to have for a year or two depending on the demands of teams with young SS's that are desirable.

[El Gordo]

You mention Bartlett a lot, well he's only 7 months younger than Uribe, and isn't any better, so why is he one of the primary guys you want?

I agree that Uribe is not a great target, that's why I said he isn't that high on my SS list. Lowrie, Hardy, and the Japanese guy are my top 3, possibly in that order, but not sure yet. After that, Uribe may be an ok guy to have for a year or two depending on the demands of teams with young SS's that are desirable.

Uribe's value is that he is a FA and just costs money. The others are trades, and may or not be available, or may cost too much in talent.

[El Gordo]

The hope and possibility is that Hardy gets non tendered. The Japanese guy is a FA and not a trade as well.

We don't know what the Japanese guy's value is or if he can play SS in the ML. The Twins would be crazy to non tender Hardy, when they can offer arbitration and then trade him if they can't afford him.

[RVAbird]

You mention Bartlett a lot, well he's only 7 months younger than Uribe, and isn't any better, so why is he one of the primary guys you want?

I agree that Uribe is not a great target, that's why I said he isn't that high on my SS list. Lowrie, Hardy, and the Japanese guy are my top 3, possibly in that order, but not sure yet. After that, Uribe may be an ok guy to have for a year or two depending on the demands of teams with young SS's that are desirable.

I agree with this. Bartlett has been on a steep 5 year decline defensively, in which he's gone from +12 to -10 in terms of UZR. I really have no interest in him.

Uribe is not at the top of my list, but he is still a solid defender at short and I think he could be a decent stop gap for a year or two.