MFY readying Lee offer; Red Sox contact Werth

[Sports Guy]

Tony, how much are you willing to give Lee?

[Dipper9]

I'm optimistic. The other thread about Werth and Lee's agents talking to the Yankees... I think it's premature to see that much doom and gloom. And I completely agree with Tony's post. We do need to act aggressively this year. But...

I'm personally not crazy about Werth, and while I think AM will talk to Lee's agent, I don't think there's a snowballs chance he's coming here.

There are plenty of moves that will help us a LOT this year. And I still think AM will pursue them. I'll believe it til like Tony said "If the top guys start getting scooped up and trades start going down without the Orioles involved, we'll know where this offseason is heading."

One more thing to remember... even if (for example) we got Beltre and Barlett and VMart or lesser, NO SET OF MOVES WILL GET US TO THE PLAYOFFS IN 2011. We need to make some big progress both this offseason AND next.

I'm not going to panic on day two of the offseason.

Being optimistic just feels so much better day to day than being pessimistic. Neither one probably has very much predictive value so one may as well choose the one that leaves a giddy feeling rather than a depressed feeling.

:hearts::hearts::thumbsup1::beerchug1::agree::2yay-thumb:

I brought these posts over from the optimism thread so that I didn't derail that thread. I want to point out two things real quick.

1. I keep hearing the "I'm not going to panic two days into the offseason" comment. Neither am I. I am panicking 3 and a half years INTO the rebuild when I still see the same holes we had when MacPhail took over.

2. The problem with being optimistic about the Orioles offseason is that all too often the more optimistic you are, the harder the fall is at the end of the offseason. That is why I am keeping my expectations low, and will be gratefully surprised if MacPhail makes some big moves. The trip up is much less painful than the fall down!

[bird watcher]

I brought these posts over from the optimism thread so that I didn't derail that thread. I want to point out two things real quick.

1. I keep hearing the "I'm not going to panic two days into the offseason" comment. Neither am I. I am panicking 3 and a half years INTO the rebuild when I still see the same holes we had when MacPhail took over.

2. The problem with being optimistic about the Orioles offseason is that all too often the more optimistic you are, the harder the fall is at the end of the offseason. That is why I am keeping my expectations low, and will be gratefully surprised if MacPhail makes some big moves. The trip up is much less painful than the fall down!

One can be perpetually optimistic without the let down. It is the Taoist way.:thumbsup1:

I follow this stuff for fun. When it isn't fun anymore I will stop following it.

Now, that said, I did post this in another thread (and no they aren't contradictory because I am optimistic that AM will see value in the red):

More and more I start to think that the best course of action, for the sake of the next 10 years, is to operate in the red for the next 5. It doesn't really make "short term" business sense to operate in the red but when you can't get over the hump there is certainly a school of thought that values carrying short term debt for long term revenue enhancement.

I don't know that AM is capable of valuing red ink. He seems too "prudent" when it comes to short term expenditures which smacks of a lack of trust that revenues will grow to meet the liabilities.

I certainly can't prove that running significantly in the red would get different results but I can sure as heck tell you that running in the black isn't working (at least on the field).

[Stan P]

AM isn't giving the type of contract he wants to a pitcher. Do you guys really forget about growing the arms? Also, it would be dumb to give him the kind of money he wants. That money needs to be put into the offense. Lee would be nice but we can't score runs for our current pitchers. How is adding another pitcher going to help score runs?

Realistically though he would never sign here after losing in the WS the last two years. Why would he want to go from so close to winning the WS to one of the worst teams in baseball?

[AZOriole]

I'd rather take the money that Lee wants and put it toward building up the offense. If a TOR is still on the wishlist, call KC and see what it would take to pry Greinke away.

[mweb]

This is a pretty common theme around here, but in my opinion, it's about getting better. Sure, if we only get Lee or Werth it's not going to put us "over the top," but it will improve the team and that makes it easier to build the rest of the team.

Say for instance we did get Lee, our rotation going into 2011 is Lee, Matusz, Guthrie, Bergesen, Arrieta with Britton and Tillman as depth at AAA. I'll be glad to go against the AL East with that rotation.

Then say we added Werth, put him in left field and traded Reimold/Pie, Hernandez and say Steve Johnson/Mickolio for Mark Reynolds (might take more. Then sign Juan Uribe for SS and and Derek Lee on a two year deals and suddenly we have a team that looks competitive to me.

Our lineup would be:

1. Roberts - 2B

2. Markakis - RF

3. Werth - LF

4. Scott - DH

5. Lee -1B

6. Wieters - C

7. Reynolds - 3B

8. Jones - CF

9. Uribe -SS

I think we put this team together for about $120 million and be a contender. It's time to take on risk! Make a splash!! Let's do it!!

I doubt AM is allowed to go anywhere near 120 million. So when this doesn't happen, it shouldn't result in bashing AM imo. Now of course he could be bashed for other things, but not for failing to put together a 120 million team that involves signing 2 of the top 3 free agents in baseball.

[Tony-OH]

Tony, how much are you willing to give Lee?

I'd probably go as high as 2/$18 million or 3/21..

[clapdiddy]

I'd probably go as high as 2/$18 million or 3/21..

Did Andy Mac hijack Tony's account?

[Tony-OH]

I doubt AM is allowed to go anywhere near 120 million. So when this doesn't happen, it shouldn't result in bashing AM imo. Now of course he could be bashed for other things, but not for failing to put together a 120 million team that involves signing 2 of the top 3 free agents in baseball.

There is no reason the Orioles can not sustain a $120 million a payroll after the low payrolls they've been using during the rebuilding years. I never put the condition that he must sign two of the top free agents to be successful. I prefer he go the trade route but if that doesn't work, he's got to hit the free agency class to some extent. Derek Lee and Uribe could be prime guys to pick up.

[Tony-OH]

Did Andy Mac hijack Tony's account?

We were talking Derek Lee? Right?

Obviously Cliff Lee would be much, much higher.

I'd go 4 years $80 million which probably would not be enough with the Yankees in the bidding.

[Tony-OH]

Obviously I wouldn't think you actually thought all that was possible in one offseason. I would also love Reynolds, and agree we need an ace but calling for a 120 million dollar payroll? I don't think anyone is realistically expecting that anytime soon.

Why Not? Even if our realistic payroll is $100 million a year, the fact is we've been significantly under the budget for years. We are in the AL East. We are battling with payrolls of $206 million (Yankees) and $160 million (Red Sox). Toronto is outmanning us in scouting and out spending us in international amateur free agents signings and Tampa Bay is about to crash back down one they can't afford the stars they developed.

With all of the MASN money coming in now and has been coming in for years, let's not fool ourselves into thinking we can't sustain a $100-$120 million pay roll. We can. We need to do it smartly and still continue to invest heavily in scouting and development, but I think it's naive to think we can't spend like that. Why can the Tigers ($122) do it? The Phillies ($141)? We can, we just have to have the leadership willing to take on risk and go for it.

[clapdiddy]

We were talking Derek Lee? Right?

Obviously Cliff Lee would be much, much higher.

I'd go 4 years $80 million which probably would not be enough with the Yankees in the bidding.

Shoot! I'm sorry, I thought you were talking Cliff!

I think Derrek is a type B, isn't he?

[Sports Guy]

Shoot! I'm sorry, I thought you were talking Cliff!

I think Derrek is a type B, isn't he?

No, he is a type A...but not likely to be offered arbitration.

[Babypowder]

Why Not? Even if our realistic payroll is $100 million a year, the fact is we've been significantly under the budget for years. We are in the AL East. We are battling with payrolls of $206 million (Yankees) and $160 million (Red Sox). Toronto is outmanning us in scouting and out spending us in international amateur free agents signings and Tampa Bay is about to crash back down one they can't afford the stars they developed.

With all of the MASN money coming in now and has been coming in for years, let's not fool ourselves into thinking we can't sustain a $100-$120 million pay roll. We can. We need to do it smartly and still continue to invest heavily in scouting and development, but I think it's naive to think we can't spend like that. Why can the Tigers ($122) do it? The Phillies ($141)? We can, we just have to have the leadership willing to take on risk and go for it.

None of us know how much they can realistically afford. I know even if we decided to spend 120 on this year's team that is going to get much higher very quickly with our young core getting raises. I don't know whether we can afford it or not, I tend to lean towards no. However, my original point was not that they can't, I don't think they WILL be spending that kind of money anytime soon. I think it is likely they may get in the neighborhood of 9 digits in a year we go for it all but unlikely we sustain anything higher than that on a year to year basis. I think anyone waiting for us to go all JTrea and compete with the high payroll clubs are setting themselves up for disappointment.

[waroriole]

There is no reason the Orioles can not sustain a $120 million a payroll after the low payrolls they've been using during the rebuilding years.

I strongly disagree here. Unless you are assuming that these two FA deals push season ticket sales to '96-'97 levels, there is no way we can support $120M payroll without taking a huge loss. In time, when attendence comes back up, we should be able to support that for a few years.