Shohei Otani

[esmd]

2 hours ago, phillyOs119 said:

If you take that attitude, then you’d only sign established MLB players, I hope whatever team you are running is ok with going well over the luxury tax each year because that’s what it would take to field a winning team.  

Whether you like it or not, Ohtani is the most significantly cost controlled asset in recent history. Whatever team gets him will be getting him for at the very least 70-80 million less than he would get as a free agent. 

I wasn't clear.....the salary isn't an issue, but it sure is when combined with the posting fee.  If I'm paying over $20M in fee and salary, then the guy better be proven.  It's one thing to draft a guy, promote a rookie, trade for a prospect, etc.  At least in this he's salary limited, but $20M is still $20M for a guy who might turn out to be nothing special.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, esmd said:

I wasn't clear.....the salary isn't an issue, but it sure is when combined with the posting fee.  If I'm paying over $20M in fee and salary, then the guy better be proven.  It's one thing to draft a guy, promote a rookie, trade for a prospect, etc.  At least in this he's salary limited, but $20M is still $20M for a guy who might turn out to be nothing special.

But what are you going to get on the FA market for say 3/25?  Not much.  If you look at it as a multi-year investment he doesn't have to be much better than replacement level to be a good deal.

Sure he might not become a #1 but I find it hard to believe that he can't be a  #4-5, occasional pinch hitter and pinch runner.

It isn't as if we don't have other pitchers coming over to compare him to.

Every offseason teams pay a heck of a lot more than 20M on guys who might turn out to be nothing special.

Heck the O's KNEW Trumbo was nothing special and how much did they pay him?

[Luke-OH]

16 minutes ago, esmd said:

I wasn't clear.....the salary isn't an issue, but it sure is when combined with the posting fee.  If I'm paying over $20M in fee and salary, then the guy better be proven.  It's one thing to draft a guy, promote a rookie, trade for a prospect, etc.  At least in this he's salary limited, but $20M is still $20M for a guy who might turn out to be nothing special.

I was taking the 20m posting few into consideration when saying he’ll cost at least 70-80million less than he would on the open market.  Someone would give him 100+ million if they could. 

[Il BuonO]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

But what are you going to get on the FA market for say 3/25?  Not much.  If you look at it as a multi-year investment he doesn't have to be much better than replacement level to be a good deal.

Sure he might not become a #1 but I find it hard to believe that he can't be a  #4-5, occasional pinch hitter and pinch runner.

It isn't as if we don't have other pitchers coming over to compare him to.

Every offseason teams pay a heck of a lot more than 20M on guys who might turn out to be nothing special.

Heck the O's KNEW Trumbo was nothing special and how much did they pay him?

Yes, but HRs in a career year apparently means pay up.

[Can_of_corn]

33 minutes ago, Il BuonO said:

Yes, but HRs in a career year apparently means pay up.

29 other teams didn't think so.

[Can_of_corn]

https://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/shohei-ohtani-farm-system/?utm_content=buffer5b53f&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer#ytfK5w8O0htrfhq0.97

Quote

Q:If Shohei Ohtani signed with the team with the worst farm system in baseball, how much would he bump up their ranking all by himself?
Bryan Ramsey, Chicago

BA:When Ohtani signs, he will become the best prospect in baseball, ahead of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Ronald Acuna, Eloy Jimenez or anyone else. Talking to multiple people in front offices, it’s not all that close.

One pro scouting director said that he wouldn't trade Ohtani for anything less than four prospects of his choosing from any of the best farm systems in baseball. A second pro scouting director agreed with that assessment.

 

 

[InsideCoroner]

14 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

But what are you going to get on the FA market for say 3/25?  Not much.  If you look at it as a multi-year investment he doesn't have to be much better than replacement level to be a good deal.

Sure he might not become a #1 but I find it hard to believe that he can't be a  #4-5, occasional pinch hitter and pinch runner.

It isn't as if we don't have other pitchers coming over to compare him to.

Every offseason teams pay a heck of a lot more than 20M on guys who might turn out to be nothing special.

Heck the O's KNEW Trumbo was nothing special and how much did they pay him?

If you were running things for the O's, would you risk the 20M and offer him the chance to pitch, DH and even field all he wants? I would, in a heartbeat.  It's not like the team has much to lose, and as you pointed out, 25M on the FA market doesn't get you much these days. We could use a pitcher, we could use a left-handed bat, and we could certainly use something that puts a few more butts in the seats. If he crashes and burns spectacularly, at least there is no long-term risk.

[Redskins Rick]

Of course the dude wanting to play on the west coast (Yes, I know Texas and Cubs are on his short list) makes all this a dead horse.

The Orioles could have opened the bank vault and it wouldn't have matter. Since there is a hard cap involved most teams are on even ground payroll wise.

[SteveA]

Angels and Mariners each just traded a player to the Twins for a million dollars in international bonus pool $.

Angels send Jacob Pearson to the Twins, Mariners send David Banuelos to the Twins.

 

[Luke-OH]

1 hour ago, SteveA said:

Angels and Mariners each just traded a player to the Twins for a million dollars in international bonus pool $.

Angels send Jacob Pearson to the Twins, Mariners send David Banuelos to the Twins.

 

Pearson was the Angels 3rd Rd pick this year and was an overslot signing.  The Angels traded him for theoretically a better chance of signing Ohtani. That should confirm how highly teams value Ohtani.

[mdbdotcom]

4 hours ago, phillyOs119 said:

Pearson was the Angels 3rd Rd pick this year and was an overslot signing.  The Angels traded him for theoretically a better chance of signing Ohtani. That should confirm how highly teams value Ohtani.

O's could have restocked the farm if they'd held on to their bonus pool money instead of trading it in dribs and drabs for suspects.

[sportsfan8703]

6 hours ago, SteveA said:

Angels and Mariners each just traded a player to the Twins for a million dollars in international bonus pool $.

Angels send Jacob Pearson to the Twins, Mariners send David Banuelos to the Twins.

 

Seems like they got much better value than what DD has gotten when he’s given away our bonus slot money. Don’t we still have $600k left?  That should be a an asset to trade a team in on Otanhi. 

[Luke-OH]

6 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Seems like they got much better value than what DD has gotten when he’s given away our bonus slot money. Don’t we still have $600k left?  That should be a an asset to trade a team in on Otanhi. 

It’s being misreported a lot on Twitter and by Baseball America but I believe it’s only 160k.

The 500k ish numbers people are throwing around don’t take in consideration the 4 IFA the Orioles signed for about 340k total.

 

 

[spiritof66]

9 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Seems like they got much better value than what DD has gotten when he’s given away our bonus slot money. Don’t we still have $600k left?  That should be a an asset to trade a team in on Otanhi. 

There are a lot of things for which Duquette can be fairly criticized, but as far as I can tell the failure to foresee that international bonus slot money would become the only currency that could be used to bid for the services of a ML-ready player of Otanhi's caliber is not one of them. 

[DrungoHazewood]

How's it going, everyone?  Am I to assume that all threads about Shohei Otani are but wild speculation?  There's no way the O's are even on his radar, correct?