DD on hot stove next live from Winter Meetings (Again 12:40)

[howboutthoseos]

Last time I checked, Napoli can't pitch. They can sign all the bats they want.

[Frobby]

Nothing new except the idea they thought Reynolds would get 12-14 million in arbitration.

That's absurd. There's no way the Orioles believed that. If they did, they could have exercised his option at $11 mm.

Reynolds would have been lucky to get $9 mm in arbitration and I really don't think the Orioles believed otherwise.

[Can_of_corn]

That's absurd. There's no way the Orioles believed that. If they did, they could have exercised his option at $11 mm.

Reynolds would have been lucky to get $9 mm in arbitration and I really don't think the Orioles believed otherwise.

Any idea who his arbitration comps would have been?

[weams]

That's absurd. There's no way the Orioles believed that. If they did, they could have exercised his option at $11 mm.

Reynolds would have been lucky to get $9 mm in arbitration and I really don't think the Orioles believed otherwise.

Then he straight out lied. The 11, 12 13 or 14 was beyond what Dan Duquette was willing to pay. The possibility of a trade was something they worked to the end. It really sounds like that door is closed, even though if so Dan straight out lied to Mark

[CA-ORIOLE]

Reynolds would have been lucky to get $9 mm in arbitration and I really don't think the Orioles believed otherwise.

Well, he specifically mentioned "while most people think Reynolds would get around 9 mil, we thought he could get 12-14 mil based on our calculations".

That's absurd. There's no way the Orioles believed that. If they did, they could have exercised his option at $11 mm.

He said the option was also too expensive.

[DrungoHazewood]

That's absurd. There's no way the Orioles believed that. If they did, they could have exercised his option at $11 mm.

Reynolds would have been lucky to get $9 mm in arbitration and I really don't think the Orioles believed otherwise.

Agreed. That has to be all spin. You can't find a metric that values Reynolds at more than a win or so, most have him around replacement, so on the open market he's looking at under $10M a year, maybe significantly less. As a third-year arb eligible a $14M contract would mean the O's actually value him near $20M, which is frankly ridiculous. $14M would be paying for Reynolds' peak offensive year, combined with a full-on acceptance that he's the new Hal Chase with the glove.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Then he straight out lied. The 11, 12 13 or 14 was beyond what Dan Duquette was willing to pay. The possibility of a trade was something they worked to the end. It really sounds like that door is closed, even though if so Dan straight out lied to Mark

Yeah, that there was no trade market for Reynolds lends credence to DD's postion.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Agreed. That has to be all spin. You can't find a metric that values Reynolds at more than a win or so, most have him around replacement, so on the open market he's looking at under $10M a year, maybe significantly less. As a third-year arb eligible a $14M contract would mean the O's actually value him near $20M, which is frankly ridiculous. $14M would be paying for Reynolds' peak offensive year, combined with a full-on acceptance that he's the new Hal Chase with the glove.

Well, DRS does show that Reynolds became an exceptioanl defender at first in the second half. I've seen that post kicked arund a few times now. Pretty sure Reynolds and his agent would have used it.

[BrunoCherrytown]

Then he straight out lied. The 11, 12 13 or 14 was beyond what Dan Duquette was willing to pay. The possibility of a trade was something they worked to the end. It really sounds like that door is closed, even though if so Dan straight out lied to Mark

DD probably thinks Endy Chavez is signing for $8 million too.

I think this was a face-saving move. He didn't want to insult Reynolds by saying - he's worth $6 million to us. So by overvaluing him in a public statement he's complimenting him thus maybe he leaves the door open?

[soxhotcorner14]

That's absurd. There's no way the Orioles believed that. If they did, they could have exercised his option at $11 mm.

Reynolds would have been lucky to get $9 mm in arbitration and I really don't think the Orioles believed otherwise.

It's just DD stroking Reynolds. Nothing to see here. There are no hard feelings on either side, so DD is just doing the best as he can to help Mark out.

[weams]

DD probably thinks Endy Chavez is signing for $8 million too.

I think this was a face-saving move. He didn't want to insult Reynolds by saying - he's worth $6 million to us. So by overvaluing him in a public statement he's complimenting him thus maybe he leaves the door open?

Might be. Frobby is livid at even the concept that 12 to 14 could have been possible. And he does that kind of stuff.

[zxlkho]

It's just DD stroking Reynolds. Nothing to see here. There are no hard feelings on either side, so DD is just doing the best as he can to help Mark out.

Yup. If they aren't going to be able to re-sign him, might as well try to drive the price up.

[clapdiddy]

Holy cow....Napoli gets 3/39 from the Sux. That seems AWFULLY high.

[DrungoHazewood]

Well, DRS does show that Reynolds became an exceptioanl defender at first in the second half. I've seen that post kicked arund a few times now. Pretty sure Reynolds and his agent would have used it.

DRS... as in +/-? On Bill James' site they have him as a -2 first baseman in '12. Total Zone and the other bb-ref metrics all have him below average. Fangraphs... still can't get that to work here at work for some reason.

Anyway. For a $14M valuation in arb the O's would have to think he'd be open-market valued at about $20M, or 4+ wins. Given that he averages under 2.0 oWAR per season he'd have to be a +20 first baseman to merit a $14M arb settlement. That just seems absurd.

[BrunoCherrytown]

DRS... as in +/-? On Bill James' site they have him as a -2 first baseman in '12. Total Zone and the other bb-ref metrics all have him below average. Fangraphs... still can't get that to work here at work for some reason.

Anyway. For a $14M valuation in arb the O's would have to think he'd be open-market valued at about $20M, or 4+ wins. Given that he averages under 2.0 oWAR per season he'd have to be a +20 first baseman to merit a $14M arb settlement. That just seems absurd.

What I love about this site is that I have no idea about anything you just said -- and that's awesome. This is a Jackie Chan - Chris Tucker kind of thing whenever I see you and Frobby post these interesting analytical datasets. I've got so much to learn.