Roch: Tigers covet Hardy

[ClimClams]

Even after last year? I know he's only 20 in it was his first shot at AA, but wouldn't you be worried about some plate discipline issues there ?

Even if someone did want to ding his prospect status for his Double-A numbers and his underwhelming showing in the Arizona Fall League - which he entered as as the top prospect - Detroit loves him. They transitioned him to the outfield over the second half of last season so that they could bring him up too early, like they do with all their prospects (and the stress of this transition probably affected his numbers at the plate). MLB.com currently has him at #10 in their Top 100, and when the Baseball America list comes out next month, he'll probably be similarly ranked. There is zero chance he's getting moved for J.J. Hardy and Jim Johnson unless Bill Bavasi becomes the Tigers' GM in the next few days.

[Barnaby Graves]

My obligatory OH three team trade fantasy would see us getting Brendan Ryan if Hardy is traded away but I just don't see how the players would work.

It's VERY important to me that we have a steady, defensively proficient, veteran presence at shortstop. You can bury one bad bat among nine at the bottom of the lineup but there are many pitchers on our roster who live and die by their infield defense. Remember the first half or so of last year when ALL of our defense sucked except for Hardy? The man might as well have worn a halo for how he saved us. And while I trust Machado at short I think we're still in the same boat if SS is fine but 3B sucks.

[Frobby]

My obligatory OH three team trade fantasy would see us getting Brendan Ryan if Hardy is traded away but I just don't see how the players would work.

It's VERY important to me that we have a steady, defensively proficient, veteran presence at shortstop. You can bury one bad bat among nine at the bottom of the lineup but there are many pitchers on our roster who live and die by their infield defense. Remember the first half or so of last year when ALL of our defense sucked except for Hardy? The man might as well have worn a halo for how he saved us. And while I trust Machado at short I think we're still in the same boat if SS is fine but 3B sucks.

Having lived through two years of Cesar Izturis as the starting shortstop, I think you can only ignore offense to a certain degree. Cesar was steady as a rock defensively, but a total black hole on offense, like Ryan. I prefer a guy like Hardy who at least is a threat on offense.

[Barnaby Graves]

Having lived through two years of Cesar Izturis as the starting shortstop, I think you can only ignore offense to a certain degree. Cesar was steady as a rock defensively, but a total black hole on offense, like Ryan. I prefer a guy like Hardy who at least is a threat on offense.

Izturis couldn't quite defend like Ryan can. Ryan's so good that I'm actually willing to overlook the bat. Turning tougher plays, making other fielders look better, reducing pitcher workload and improving their numbers... there's so many huge benefits to ace defensive shortstops.

[clapdiddy]

Izturis couldn't quite defend like Ryan can. Ryan's so good that I'm actually willing to overlook the bat. Turning tougher plays, making other fielders look better, reducing pitcher workload and improving their numbers... there's so many huge benefits to ace defensive shortstops.

I'd rather see Machado at short if we're dealing JJ. Shortstop is where we're going to get the most value out of Machado, and I'd like to see him there sooner rather than later.

[wildbillhiccup]

I'd rather see Machado at short if we're dealing JJ. Shortstop is where we're going to get the most value out of Machado, and I'd like to see him there sooner rather than later.

Completely agree with this. The reason you move Hardy is to transition Machado to his more natural long turn position. You don't block him by trading for another SS, even if it is a great defensive one.

I also understand the sentiment for those who don't think that th Orioles should move Hardy, but I think they have to flexibile in terms of how they approach trades. In large part, their approach should be centered around the interest of otehrs teams. If other teams don't value our young SPs as highly as we do then we shouldn't trade them. On the other hand, if other teams are interested in players such as Hardy, J.Johnson, or anyone else who realistically won't contribute to the long-term success fo the team then we should entertain offers.

[Frobby]

Izturis couldn't quite defend like Ryan can. Ryan's so good that I'm actually willing to overlook the bat. Turning tougher plays, making other fielders look better, reducing pitcher workload and improving their numbers... there's so many huge benefits to ace defensive shortstops.

Your first post just referred to "steady, defensively proficient, veteran presence at shortstop." Izturis certainly was all of that. I agree that Ryan appears to be a notch or two better than Izzy. You do have to ask yourself, though, why a great organization like the Cardinals traded him away if he's all that valuable.

I think one reason is that, although you can compensate for one big hole like that in your lineup, the second you spring a second hole due to injury or unexpected poor performance, you're not only bad, but unwatchable.

[Barnaby Graves]

I'd rather see Machado at short if we're dealing JJ. Shortstop is where we're going to get the most value out of Machado, and I'd like to see him there sooner rather than later.

That's fine but who plays third in Hardy's-been-tradedland? My answer was Machado, with Ryan as SS. I have real concern about those left side defensive positions, as you can see. I just don't want to see the Reynolds/Betemit type defense anymore.

Completely agree with this. The reason you move Hardy is to transition Machado to his more natural long turn position. You don't block him by trading for another SS, even if it is a great defensive one.

I'll pose the question to you too.

There's no depth at third for us, Machado is basically the guy, I just don't know how a Hardy trade to open up SS for Machado doesn't just open another big hole.

More to the point of the thread, a Hardy trade seems pretty impossible, though interesting to think about.

Your first post just referred to "steady, defensively proficient, veteran presence at shortstop." Izturis certainly was all of that. I agree that Ryan appears to be a notch or two better than Izzy. You do have to ask yourself, though, why a great organization like the Cardinals traded him away if he's all that valuable.

Had a few injuries, maybe they were selling short on his health... I dunno. I also think there might have been off-field/personality issues.

I think one reason is that, although you can compensate for one big hole like that in your lineup, the second you spring a second hole due to injury or unexpected poor performance, you're not only bad, but unwatchable.

:shrug: Brendan Ryan's defense is as good as his offense is mediocre whether there's another hole in your lineup or not. I don't know if I understand your point.

[Frobby]

:shrug: Brendan Ryan's defense is as good as his offense is mediocre whether there's another hole in your lineup or not. I don't know if I understand your point.

My point is that if you have a truly terrible offensive player in your everyday lineup, it will magnify the effect if something else goes wrong offensively. The 2010 Orioles illustrate my point. In 2009, they had Izzy at SS, and still managed to score 741 runs. But in 2010, BRob got hurt, a few other things went wrong, and the offense simply wasn't able to carry Izzy's awful bat.

I certainly know as well as anyone that a great offense can carry a true stud defensive SS who is a black hole on offense. I watched the Orioles carry Belanger for a decade. But the O's offense isn't great elsewhere. It's average to slightly below average.

[clapdiddy]

That's fine but who plays third in Hardy's-been-tradedland?

At the moment, likely a Flaherty/Valencia platoon of some sort. I would also make sure the Mr. Schoop is playing third this season at whatever level he's playing in preparation for taking the position over in the near future.

[DrungoHazewood]

My point is that if you have a truly terrible offensive player in your everyday lineup, it will magnify the effect if something else goes wrong offensively. The 2010 Orioles illustrate my point. In 2009, they had Izzy at SS, and still managed to score 741 runs. But in 2010, BRob got hurt, a few other things went wrong, and the offense simply wasn't able to carry Izzy's awful bat.

I certainly know as well as anyone that a great offense can carry a true stud defensive SS who is a black hole on offense. I watched the Orioles carry Belanger for a decade. But the O's offense isn't great elsewhere. It's average to slightly below average.

The other thing is that if Brendan Ryan isn't 100% or his defense slips a notch he's a zero, or a sub-zero. Izturis' first year with the O's he was roughly a +10 defender and a almost-average MLB shortstop. Not quite, but almost. The next year he slips back a notch and he's sub-replacement. Ryan is so bad offensively that he has to consistenly be a plus-plus glove just to keep a job.

[Barnaby Graves]

My point is that if you have a truly terrible offensive player in your everyday lineup, it will magnify the effect if something else goes wrong offensively. The 2010 Orioles illustrate my point. In 2009, they had Izzy at SS, and still managed to score 741 runs. But in 2010, BRob got hurt, a few other things went wrong, and the offense simply wasn't able to carry Izzy's awful bat.

I just don't agree with this approach. The 2009 Orioles didn't carry Izturis' bat much farther than the 2010 Orioles since both teams were pretty bad. It has little to do with Izturis' bat than just, they were less adept at scoring in general. And Izturis himself was slightly worse across the board in 2010.

I certainly know as well as anyone that a great offense can carry a true stud defensive SS who is a black hole on offense. I watched the Orioles carry Belanger for a decade. But the O's offense isn't great elsewhere. It's average to slightly below average.

I'd get Ryan for the sake of his abilities, I don't really see how the rest of the team factors into it unless you're talking about blocking certain people (and unless there's a replacement for Machado at 3rd I don't think we are). How well our outfield or catcher hits doesn't have any bearing on what I think about Ryan's fielding.

[25 Nuggets]

Just taking a look, Ryan appears to have a better bat on average than Cesar does. He's been above replacement offensively for every season but one (2010). Cesar, not so much.

[Barnaby Graves]

At the moment, likely a Flaherty/Valencia platoon of some sort.

What does Valencia really have going for him? He's basically another Duquette reanimation project, although Duke is quite the necromancer, what's he going to do with Danny Valencia's career? Flaherty's going to be playing second I bet. I think Brian Roberts is toast.

The other thing is that if Brendan Ryan isn't 100% or his defense slips a notch he's a zero, or a sub-zero. Izturis' first year with the O's he was roughly a +10 defender and a almost-average MLB shortstop. Not quite, but almost. The next year he slips back a notch and he's sub-replacement. Ryan is so bad offensively that he has to consistenly be a plus-plus glove just to keep a job.

You can say that for any player though, there's no regression-proof stocks in major league baseball.

[DrungoHazewood]

You can say that for any player though, there's no regression-proof stocks in major league baseball.

But ballplayers, like stocks, are better off diversified. Ryan has all of his value tied to his glove at short. JJ Hardy could survive, and even be pretty productive, in a year where he OBP'd under .300 because of his power and glove. Someone like Markakis has enough power, average, arm, plate discipline, that he can survive a downtick in any one of those. Ryan's baseline is no OBP, no power, minimal baserunning value, all glove. He's like a LOOGY - no matter who he is, if the guy has an off year killing lefties he's looking for an NRI or a PCL bus ticket.