Roch: Tigers covet Hardy

[Stotle]

But there's degrees of non entityness... I prefer 60 OPS+ to 50 OPS+.

Right, but that doesn't speak to the actual difference in production compared to other options. I prefer the better hitter, as well, but the question is whether that better hitter is available, what he costs and what the tradeoffs are in his profile.

[Barnaby Graves]

Right, but that doesn't speak to the actual difference in production compared to other options. I prefer the better hitter, as well, but the question is whether that better hitter is available, what he costs and what the tradeoffs are in his profile.

After watching the Angels trade Mike Napoli for Vernon Wells' contract I've given up trying to understand major league appraisals of value. I'm out of the loop.

All I can really think right now is, we had a solid 3B/SS combo and it made a big difference in so many aspects. I'm wary of giving that up.

[DrungoHazewood]

I'm finding it hard to believe that Ryan's .194/.277/.278 season in 2012 was above replacement level. I see BB-ref says his oWAR was 0.5, but that makes little sense to me, even knowing that he was playing half his games at Safeco.

In 2012 there were 517 runs scored at Safeco, by the Mariners and their opponents. In 1968, the year of the pitcher where Yaz won the batting title hitting .301 and Gibson had a 1.12 ERA, the 91-win Orioles allowed 497 runs.

So, basically, every game at Safeco was like both teams using the 1968 Orioles staff in 1968 conditions.

[El Gordo]

After watching the Angels trade Mike Napoli for Vernon Wells' contract I've given up trying to understand major league appraisals of value. I'm out of the loop.

All I can really think right now is, we had a solid 3B/SS combo and it made a big difference in so many aspects. I'm wary of giving that up.

I agree with you here. I just don't see enough DET can give back that makes us a better team. Would a Castellanos/Machado left side two years from now, be so much better than the current Hardy/Machado left side, as to be worth a decidedly weaker IF all around for the next two years. I wouldn't be too excited with the idea of a Davis, Roberts/Cassilla, Machado(learning curve before he is in Hardy's league) and Flaherty/Valecia IF. Playoffs? PLAYOFFS????

[CA-ORIOLE]

In 2012 there were 517 runs scored at Safeco, by the Mariners and their opponents. In 1968, the year of the pitcher where Yaz won the batting title hitting .301 and Gibson had a 1.12 ERA, the 91-win Orioles allowed 497 runs.

So, basically, every game at Safeco was like both teams using the 1968 Orioles staff in 1968 conditions.

Still, his wRC+ was only 61, which puts him 25th among ss's with 400 or more AB's. Maybe the speed metrics bump the oWAR a bit (they basically show him about average last year).

[Frobby]

In 2012 there were 517 runs scored at Safeco, by the Mariners and their opponents. In 1968, the year of the pitcher where Yaz won the batting title hitting .301 and Gibson had a 1.12 ERA, the 91-win Orioles allowed 497 runs.

So, basically, every game at Safeco was like both teams using the 1968 Orioles staff in 1968 conditions.

And in that year, Mark Belanger had a .520 OPS (59 OPS+), which was worth -0.2 oWAR even in those conditions. So I'm still surprised that Ryan's .555 OPS (61 OPS+) is somehow worth 0.5 oWAR.

[pdiddy]

I agree with you here. I just don't see enough DET can give back that makes us a better team. Would a Castellanos/Machado left side two years from now, be so much better than the current Hardy/Machado left side, as to be worth a decidedly weaker IF all around for the next two years. I wouldn't be too excited with the idea of a Davis, Roberts/Cassilla, Machado(learning curve before he is in Hardy's league) and Flaherty/Valecia IF. Playoffs? PLAYOFFS????

Porcello certainly helps...give more options for trades from the current staff as well.

Is two years the consensus on Castellanos? If he can get here next year it is a different deal. So much depends on Schoop too.

[El Gordo]

Porcello certainly helps...give more options for trades from the current staff as well.

Is two years the consensus on Castellanos? If he can get here next year it is a different deal. So much depends on Schoop too.

So would Saunders. As to Castellanos, who knows I wouldn't trade Hardy based on the hope he can develop the plate discipline and defense to get him here in 2014. I have more confidence that Schoop will be ready.

[CA-ORIOLE]

And in that year, Mark Belanger had a .520 OPS (59 OPS+), which was worth -0.2 oWAR even in those conditions. So I'm still surprised that Ryan's .555 OPS (61 OPS+) is somehow worth 0.5 oWAR.

Bref's rBat (linear weights formula) has Belanger at -24 (1968) while Ryan was minus 18 (2012). That's roughly your difference in oWAR. Probably also has to do with the replacement player adjustments in rWAR. fWAR indicates Ryan was the worst offensive performer (before replacement/positional adjustments), but they use a different system of linear weights.

Bref's Home Park factor for Belanger was 103 in 1968. It was 87 for Ryan in 2012.

[pdiddy]

So would Saunders. As to Castellanos, who knows I wouldn't trade Hardy based on the hope he can develop the plate discipline and defense to get him here in 2014. I have more confidence that Schoop will be ready.

I think he's the best option, particularly if he can be had for two years.

In a vacuum, I like trading for Castellano and Porcello (gimmee sinkerballers in Camden..I think he still has room to improve), but if we can sign Saunders and keep Hardy you're right it's probably better for the team.

[SrMeowMeow]

Any recent trade updates in this thread? I didn't get through all eighteen pages.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Any recent trade updates in this thread? I didn't get through all eighteen pages.

The board has traded Machado and Hardy for prospects and Jhonny Peralta and Brendan Ryan will be playing 3b/ss for us next year.

[PHRESH]

The board has traded Machado and Hardy for prospects and Jhonny Peralta and Brendan Ryan will be playing 3b/ss for us next year.

:laughlol::laughlol::laughlol:

I wonder of the Tigers have anything the Rangers would want? I love our current left side, but I'd love to find a way to turn Hardy into Olt.

[SrMeowMeow]

Machado for Verlander. Get it done.

[$Greatness$]

Garza and Porcello. Let's go win a championship!