Roch: Tigers covet Hardy

[clapdiddy]

What does Valencia really have going for him? He's basically another Duquette reanimation project, although Duke is quite the necromancer, what's he going to do with Danny Valencia's career? Flaherty's going to be playing second I bet. I think Brian Roberts is toast.

Valencia has hit lefties pretty well. Granted, it's a small sample size, but he has shown the ability to hit left-handed MLB pitching.

I don't see Flaherty being the everyday second baseman this season. I think DD went after Casilla to be our second baseman if Roberts is not able to go.

[Barnaby Graves]

But ballplayers, like stocks, are better off diversified. Ryan has all of his value tied to his glove at short. JJ Hardy could survive, and even be pretty productive, in a year where he OBP'd under .300 because of his power and glove. Someone like Markakis has enough power, average, arm, plate discipline, that he can survive a downtick in any one of those. Ryan's baseline is no OBP, no power, minimal baserunning value, all glove. He's like a LOOGY - no matter who he is, if the guy has an off year killing lefties he's looking for an NRI or a PCL bus ticket.

Point taken. Though I'd be rather surprised if his defensive ability just fell apart. I can't expect him to be Belanger and put up great defense consistently for a huge amount of time, but what's going to make his defense deteriorate like that?

And with respect to diversified players, what's going to make Brendan Ryan's defense fall apart that wouldn't make JJ Hardy's defense fall apart, as well as Hardy's bat? In other words, injury, distractions, being in poor shape, getting his contact lens scrip switched by accident and not noticing for 5 months, all of these which can cause regression... I don't see diversification being much help, actually. I think you make an interesting point about diversified skills and I want to agree with you but I probably wouldn't be any less worried about Hardy regressing than Ryan.

[Stotle]

But ballplayers, like stocks, are better off diversified. Ryan has all of his value tied to his glove at short. JJ Hardy could survive, and even be pretty productive, in a year where he OBP'd under .300 because of his power and glove. Someone like Markakis has enough power, average, arm, plate discipline, that he can survive a downtick in any one of those. Ryan's baseline is no OBP, no power, minimal baserunning value, all glove. He's like a LOOGY - no matter who he is, if the guy has an off year killing lefties he's looking for an NRI or a PCL bus ticket.

I think some truth to this, but am having trouble figuring out likely variables that would affect one aspect of a diversified players game without negatively impacting the rest of his game.

[Barnaby Graves]

Valencia has hit lefties pretty well. Granted, it's a small sample size, but he has shown the ability to hit left-handed MLB pitching.

He's got a very limited skillset and his platoon splits don't seem to justify a spot on the team. Doesn't really offer flexibility or one particularly interesting skill... he's neither Hardy nor Ryan.

I don't see Flaherty being the everyday second baseman this season. I think DD went after Casilla to be our second baseman if Roberts is not able to go.

Yeesh. I really hope not. Would rather see Flaherty actually.

[DrungoHazewood]

Point taken. Though I'd be rather surprised if his defensive ability just fell apart. I can't expect him to be Belanger and put up great defense consistently for a huge amount of time, but what's going to make his defense deteriorate like that?

Age. An average player sees his defensive value peak earlier than his offensive value, i.e. before 27.

I think some truth to this, but am having trouble figuring out likely variables that would affect one aspect of a diversified players game without negatively impacting the rest of his game.

Continuing my response above, but answering you, also... Defense is more of an athletic ability thing than offense. I think we saw this with Luis Hernandez. He looked like a plus defender at short when he first came up. Over the winter he put on 10 or 15 pounds and was pretty much toast. Defense at a skill position (except maybe catcher) is much more reliant on first-step quickness and speed and flexibility and (obviously) throwing ability than offense. I think it's pretty well established that those things are usually at a peak the day a guy comes to the majors. An offense first corner guy, say Chris Davis or Miguel Cabrera, could lose a step of his speed and you might not notice. Brendan Ryan loses a step and he might be out of the league.

[Stotle]

Continuing my response above, but answering you, also... Defense is more of an athletic ability thing than offense. I think we saw this with Luis Hernandez. He looked like a plus defender at short when he first came up. Over the winter he put on 10 or 15 pounds and was pretty much toast. Defense at a skill position (except maybe catcher) is much more reliant on first-step quickness and speed and flexibility and (obviously) throwing ability than offense. I think it's pretty well established that those things are usually at a peak the day a guy comes to the majors. An offense first corner guy, say Chris Davis or Miguel Cabrera, could lose a step of his speed and you might not notice. Brendan Ryan loses a step and he might be out of the league.

I disagree. If athleticism deteriorates such that it is having impactful effects on defense, it will also ripple to offense. At the top level, much of hitting is muscle memory/reaction. When your body slows down, or you get stronger or weaker, your muscle memory is less effective. Now, continued reps can help you adjust so that there isn't a crazy fall-off (as opposed to not picking up a bat for six months and then trying to swing with an extra 20 lbs around your midsection).

Using Ryan as an example is tough, since he's a heavy outlier. I agree with you there is almost no room for any deterioration in defensive production (and there are execs who wouldn't have him on their roster no matter what the defensive metrics say about value). But generally, falloff is going to be an issue regardless of a player's profile (if we are talking about established players). If we are talking about young players or prospects, there is definitely a lot more value in the diversified profile since there are more areas for unexpected jump in production.

[clapdiddy]

He's got a very limited skillset and his platoon splits don't seem to justify a spot on the team. Doesn't really offer flexibility or one particularly interesting skill... he's neither Hardy nor Ryan.

If he's able to hit left-handed pitching and play an adequate third base, I'd say that's all we'd need. He could be available to pinch hit against a tough lefty in some cases. Ideally, if we look to move Hardy, I'd prefer someone a little more well-rounded at third. I think a Flaherty/Valencia platoon could be league-average.

Yeesh. I really hope not. Would rather see Flaherty actually.

So...you would prefer to have an all-field, little hit shortstop, but not a second baseman? You do realize that our second basemen OPS'd under .600 last year, right? At least Casilla can drop down a bunt, steal a base, and play good defense. I'm not saying he's a long-term solution, but he seems to do enough of the "little things" that having him play second wouldn't be horrible.

[DrungoHazewood]

I disagree. If athleticism deteriorates such that it is having impactful effects on defense, it will also ripple to offense. At the top level, much of hitting is muscle memory/reaction. When your body slows down, or you get stronger or weaker, your muscle memory is less effective. Now, continued reps can help you adjust so that there isn't a crazy fall-off (as opposed to not picking up a bat for six months and then trying to swing with an extra 20 lbs around your midsection).

Using Ryan as an example is tough, since he's a heavy outlier. I agree with you there is almost no room for any deterioration in defensive production (and there are execs who wouldn't have him on their roster no matter what the defensive metrics say about value). But generally, falloff is going to be an issue regardless of a player's profile (if we are talking about established players). If we are talking about young players or prospects, there is definitely a lot more value in the diversified profile since there are more areas for unexpected jump in production.

So if it's not athleticism, then how do you explain the fact that (on average) defensive value peaks several years earlier than offense?

[Stotle]

So if it's not athleticism, then how do you explain the fact that (on average) defensive value peaks several years earlier than offense?

It is athleticism. But it is also physical recovery bounceback time frames (older you get, the harder seasons are on your body). My point is that a sudden decrease in athleticism is going to affect hitting, too. If all you are talking about is standard "average" decrease in defensive value due to age, well okay. I am not equipped to argue that because I am not sure what the general numbers say and what the specific "shortcomings" in those generalities are.

Maybe I was too hung up on your examples. I viewed it as "an unexpected downturn will affect the one-dimensional player more than the diversified profile". To me, that isn't standard regression. That's saying, if something happens to this power only guy that takes away his power, he has no value. Markakis can lose power and still have hit tool, defense, baserunning, etc. I couldn't think of real world examples of something unexpected that could happen that would sap one aspect of a diversified player's game that wouldn't affect other aspects of that player's game.

[El Gordo]

So if it's not athleticism, then how do you explain the fact that (on average) defensive value peaks several years earlier than offense?

Just off the top of my head, loss of foot speed impacts defense, but has little impact on bat speed. Many slow runners are solid hitters. When the knees, hips and quads, start breaking down, then the bat slows.

[Frobby]

Just taking a look, Ryan appears to have a better bat on average than Cesar does. He's been above replacement offensively for every season but one (2010). Cesar, not so much.

I'm finding it hard to believe that Ryan's .194/.277/.278 season in 2012 was above replacement level. I see BB-ref says his oWAR was 0.5, but that makes little sense to me, even knowing that he was playing half his games at Safeco.

By the way, 2012 was a terrible offensive season for shortstops. Major league average OPS was .685. Even so, Seattle (with Ryan as their principal guy) was worst in the majors by a pretty big margin (.543).

[Stotle]

I'm finding it hard to believe that Ryan's .194/.277/.278 season in 2012 was above replacement level. I see BB-ref says his oWAR was 0.5, but that makes little sense to me, even knowing that he was playing half his games at Safeco.

By the way, 2012 was a terrible offensive season for shortstops. Major league average OPS was .685. Even so, Seattle (with Ryan as their principal guy) was worst in the majors by a pretty big margin (.543).

I think it's a statement as to how bad the offensive profile is at the position right now. And those numbers clearly show him as essentially a non entity at the plate.

[Stotle]

Just off the top of my head, loss of foot speed impacts defense, but has little impact on bat speed. Many slow runners are solid hitters. When the knees, hips and quads, start breaking down, then the bat slows.

I'd equate that to "first step" that Drungo mentioned. I agree, but that's natural regression, not some unexpected and unforeseeable falloff, right?

[Barnaby Graves]

If he's able to hit left-handed pitching and play an adequate third base, I'd say that's all we'd need. He could be available to pinch hit against a tough lefty in some cases. Ideally, if we look to move Hardy, I'd prefer someone a little more well-rounded at third. I think a Flaherty/Valencia platoon could be league-average.

Maybe. Sounds like a pretty steep drop off from Machado's 2012 play.

So...you would prefer to have an all-field, little hit shortstop, but not a second baseman? You do realize that our second basemen OPS'd under .600 last year, right? At least Casilla can drop down a bunt, steal a base, and play good defense. I'm not saying he's a long-term solution, but he seems to do enough of the "little things" that having him play second wouldn't be horrible.

Casilla doesn't really answer these things and he's a poor comp for Ryan as a second base analog. Ryan's glove is much better. His glove is much, much better than Casilla's glove than Casilla's bat is better than Ryan's... though Casilla has considerable speed. Flaherty's bat is interesting enough, I'm looking forward to getting an extended look at Casilla.

I think it's a statement as to how bad the offensive profile is at the position right now. And those numbers clearly show him as essentially a non entity at the plate.

But there's degrees of non entityness... I prefer 60 OPS+ to 50 OPS+.

I think the best answer is Machado at 3B and Hardy at SS. For all this talk about Ryan I prefer Machado/Hardy over Ryan/Machado and Flaherty|Betemit|Valencia/Machado.

[Barnaby Graves]

Also I forgot to add that I'm not really enthused about much of what the Tigers might offer, including Porcello, who I wouldn't want to be playing in front of anything other than at least two solid pieces of an infield defense... just saying.