Roch: Tigers covet Hardy

[Il BuonO]

He doesn't get the play he deserves.

I'm torn on Hardy...he's only 30. If they keep him and he finds his 2011 bat again, I could see the team flip flopping Hardy and Manny in 14 and making the decision on keeping him or letting him walk/deadline trade then. How Schoop progresses would inform on that decision for sure.

If a deal is really out there for Porcello/Castellanos though I think it is definitely worth pursuing. I'd be happy to let Hardy be this team's Bordick and welcome him back in three years as a FA if we need him.

This is almost exactly where I am except for Castellanos. I was high on him until I read about his defense. I'm more inclined to let Manny get a few games a SS this year, but still mainly at 3B while he learns next to JJ and see what we have in Schoop. The trade that DD could make in the teams favor would greatly influence the decision as well, but I think it might be a little too soon for MM full time at SS. He made quite a few miscues there in AA.

[Stotle]

Is Castellanos that great of a prospect? I really dont know. I know he's only 20, but he didn't exactly do much at AA last year. Looking at his stats, maybe there are some plate discipline issues there. I realize BA is a lot more important for younger guys than more mature prospects. The two JJ's seem like a lot imo. I guess part of that depends on how you look at a "closer". I like Porcello, but I'm not in love with him and Peralta is just filler on the other end.

Yes. Potential beast at the plate. Easily has chops to play 3b long term, though there's no place for him there in Detroit. Some of the easiest power I've seen in a prep bat and it's all still in there. Broad frame that is going to continue to hang a lot of strength. Big time talent.

[Stotle]

On the serious side, after reading this entire thread I would say Vogelbach sounds like a better fit for the future and any talk of Strop as closer means he should be included in trade talks so OTHER teams can try him out in that role and I don't ever have to hear that he is the heir apparent to Johnson.

That is all.

Vogelbach going nowhere. Cubs love him; just tapping into value.

[Il BuonO]

If there is going to be a corner infielder coming back to the O's in this exchange, I wonder if there's a better chance of it being the Cubs' Dan Vogelbach than Castellanos. Frankly, Castellanos isn't getting traded to anyone unless it's part of a blockbuster package - not something based around J.J. Hardy plus one of Arrieta/Matusz/Britton. The Tigers' front office would need fresh knickers after laughing that offer out of town. Castellanos is a Top 20 overall prospect who's reached AA ball at 20 years old - and earned it, as opposed to other Tigers prospects - and is one of the highest-regarded bats in all the minor leagues.

But Vogelbach - he of the Prince Fielder-esque 6'0 250 lbs build - absolutely ANNIHILATED Rookie and Low-A ball last year as a 19 year old, to the tune of .322/.410./.641 with 17 homers in only 245 at bats, and a studly 48/35 K/BB ratio. As a first baseman, in Chicago he's blocked by Anthony Rizzo, and his body type doesn't lend itself to a transition to the outfield (although it looks uniquely suited to DH). Unless the Cubs are considered moving Rizzo off 1B for whatever reason, Vogelbach is prime trade bait. They'd probably want something more impressive than Rick Porcello in exchange for him, but it's easier to envision a deal involving him than Castellanos.

This is the guy that intrigues me. Stotle, any comment?

[Il BuonO]

Lol, that answers that.

[Il BuonO]

Vogelbach going nowhere. Cubs love him; just tapping into value.

Because of the body and no d?

[Stotle]

This is the guy that intrigues me. Stotle, any comment?

He's a dude. Cubs love him. Great make-up kid. Will hit a ton. Needs to hit a ton because zero defensive or baserunning value. Short to contact without losing power, which allows him to project for average and pop.

[Stotle]

Because of the body and no d?

He's likely to keep hitting; Cubs aren't competing right now so no need to move him; once he puts up numbers in full season ball his value will jump. If he makes enough progress defensively, that's who the Cubs want as their first baseman of the future and #3 hitter. If the defense doesn't come along, he'll be trade bait to an AL team in 2014 or 2015 as part of a deal for a significant piece.

Body adds risk; still a long ways away, so anything can happen. But the bat is legit.

[markakis8]

Why does that make him untouchable? Last I checked it wasn't Buck's call. I am sure he has input but it isn't ultimately his decision. If DD is serious about improving the team OBP then Hardy is a logical piece to move.

I told myself I would read all 15 pages of this post before I commented but I have to stop here. JJ is a top 5 defender in the MLB at the most important defensive position. Some would argue he is top 3. With his ability to hit 20 home run a year, you don't just easily trade that. He could hit .200 every year and I would be okay with that. If he's popping out 20 bombs and playing GG defense like he did last year, he's borderline untouchable, IMO.

[Orioles West]

I told myself I would read all 15 pages of this post before I commented but I have to stop here. JJ is a top 5 defender in the MLB at the most important defensive position. Some would argue he is top 3. With his ability to hit 20 home run a year, you don't just easily trade that. He could hit .200 every year and I would be okay with that. If he's popping out 20 bombs and playing GG defense like he did last year, he's borderline untouchable, IMO.

Up the middle defense is still critical, I agree. While not quite untouchable, it would have to be a really, really good deal to move JJ. It is funny, I recall all of the threads whining about the lack of stability and pop at SS until JJ got here. Look who wants him and why. Tigers are looking to win it all, so should we, and keep him and add to the roster elsewhere, in my humble estimation.

-Don

[Frobby]

I told myself I would read all 15 pages of this post before I commented but I have to stop here. JJ is a top 5 defender in the MLB at the most important defensive position. Some would argue he is top 3. With his ability to hit 20 home run a year, you don't just easily trade that. He could hit .200 every year and I would be okay with that. If he's popping out 20 bombs and playing GG defense like he did last year, he's borderline untouchable, IMO.

When Belanger and Brooks were manning the left side of the Orioles' infield, Tigers' manager Mayo Smith once said, "trying to hit a ball through the left side of that infield is like trying to throw a hamburger through a brick wall". That's pretty close to what I witnessed for 51 games last season. And I want to see more of it!

Scoff if you will, but I'm a believer in karma. These guys gave us a magical season last year, they played as a true team, and I don't want to tempt the baseball gods with too much tinkering. We've already replaced the right side of our infield, and I have my reservations about that. Please don't fool with the left side, which is so important.

[Dark Helmet]

Tiger's want Hardy and need a closer, the O's want Upton, and the DBacks want a young SP and 3B. Would this trade work for all three?

O's get: Upton and Peralta

Tiger's get: Hardy and Heath Bell

Dbacks get: Porcello, Castellanos, Arrieta, Britton

[DrungoHazewood]

Why isn't it a bad model to use? Or, why is it a good model to use? There are hundreds of variables that made the '89 Orioles the '89 Orioles and hundreds of variables that made that the '12 Orioles the '12 Orioles. Picking the '90 Orioles as an indicator of what is going to happen to the 2013 Orioles makes no more or less sense than picking the '09 Rays.

On a simple level, because Wins = (True talent) + (Everything else, to include random variation, career years, injuries, optimal bullpen use, karma, luck, divine intervention, Norse god smiting the Red Sox for hubris, etc)

When a team pretty clearly outplays their true talent there's a strong case to be made that the 2nd part of the equation drove that in ways that are probably unrepeatable. It would be hard for me to construct a case where either the 2012 or 1989 Orioles had a true talent level that added up to their real-life win total. Neither of those teams had the on-paper talent of other teams that ended with around their win totals. So I'm sure this answer will result in many "but that's why they play the #%#$ games!!" responses, but true talent tends to win out in the long run.

Or, more simply, Bill James came up with a thing called the plexiglass principal many years ago. It just states that teams who leap forward in year one tend to fall back in year two. It's really just restating the fact that regression to the mean is alive and well in baseball.

[waroriole]

Tiger's want Hardy and need a closer, the O's want Upton, and the DBacks want a young SP and 3B. Would this trade work for all three?

O's get: Upton and Peralta

Tiger's get: Hardy and Heath Bell

Dbacks get: Porcello, Castellanos, Arrieta, Britton

Tigers getting screwed.

[Stotle]

Tigers getting screwed.

DBacks trading Upton and potentially not getting better than a #4 starter back, too.